After 2 green days we got our red candle day today. It's still nothing to worry about this drop it's normal at the beginning of a new intermediate cycle.
1. We tested back the down trendline with this drop.
2. 1212-14 was an important zone on the hourly chart. It took 25 days to break down this zone and produce the final 3 days panic selling of the decline. Even the falling dollar was not enough to break above this zone on the first try...
3. 1200 is also the back test of the neckline of thebasing pattern on the hourly chart. (One can see H&S, others see a trend changing cup & handle)
4. On the other hand we just tested back the 100 SMA on the hourly chart.
In the past the 100 SMA had important role in the rally. Price was tagging many times the 100 SMA.
2017 December ICL 2016 December ICL
At HCLs and daily cycle lows we are not just tagging the 100 SMA: price breaks below the 100 SMA and drops to the 200 SMA.
But right now it's too early for a Half cycle low and way too early for a DCL. I think smartmoney is setting up gold for the large speculator horde's short squeeze. They have record short positions. With today's drop we have all the small speculators on aboard too who missed gold's 5 months drop.
Let's see how it plays out tomorrow. I think this is a point where one can add to the position or enter long if missed Flyday's rally last week.
If we drop again tomorrow then this will be the chance for gold to test the 10 SMA :
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After yesterday's bearish engulfing ( also a key reversal) today we did not have any confirmation for going lower. It seems we just tested back the 10 EMA.
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I give 30% for this scenario:
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... and 70% for this:
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10 SMA back tested:
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A close on the 10 EMA. It looks more and more like a flag. Tomorrow green candle?
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Today or tomorrow we are going to break out. Big move is coming to the upside.
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Bull flag breakout
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This is just a gold pop.
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The dollar is flat
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The party is starting went the dollar breaks down
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*when
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We need a daily close above the 10 SMA
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Roughly 1202
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We have strong numbers on NFP. Gold dropped but erasing the hourly red candle
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We will have a rate hike at next FOMC . The last one this year. So path is clear for gold till Late January.
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The ascending triangle is waiting to break out above 1213
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DXY broke down the trendline yesterday.
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Flyday for gold today.
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Miners seem to be leading the rally. Gold is still lagging but I think the latest this night we going to get out breakout from the range.
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out=our
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Tradingview, shall we begin?
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This call is deep in the profit. Trade still active.
Arpi, I bet really big on the intermediate cycle here. I was way too early. I believe we are 1/2 way into the 1st daily cycle after a 16 Aug ICL. No blast off phase on this 1st cycle with a ton of resistance right here. With the 16 Aug ICL way lower than the previous 2 ICL's, are you confident in higher DCL's for the next couple cycles -AND- a higher ICL, or have we converted to a series of lower ICL's (bearish) and we need to re-test the December 2016 low? (This set of cycles has most of the cyclists I read all tied up in knots....)
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@bertcoin, its pretty hard to tell at this point if the next IC is breaking out of the 2016-2018 consolidation box or not. What I see that Aug 16 was the ICL. We are in the first daily cycle. It can be very long with a severe HCL or can be short with a mild DCL. Miners most probably will print a crazy rally. Maybe a half year rally but 2-3 month for sure. The xauxag ratio also interesting . Sikver might overperform gold in the next few weeks. So one should hold a mix of gold-silver and miners. Tomorrow or Friday we should see a big up day in gold as bears are destroyed. Probably a 30$ up day.
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@chartwatchers, but this year I don’t see any chsnce of testing the 2016 low. I think the next 2-3 months we will see something like at beginning of 2016... the worst case we test back 1290-1300 and roll over in january.
bertcoin
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Nice move today....
BjornPfaff
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Guess who s back boyzzzz :) gold is getting smashed big time. And i love it
kurt-dyanamik
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@BjornPfaff, enjoy your ban my friend :) see you here in 7 days i guess
Andrewone
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@chartwatchers , commercials was increased their longs and reduce their shorts this week