chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - A possible beartrap

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
2472 25 40
False breakdown from the triangle. Breaking last week's lows and a rally back into the triangle.
This is the recipe for a nice beartrap.
I think a lot of retail bear is back in the game with shorts today. So it's time to fleece them.

If we break above today's high in the night we will have the chance to break out of the triangle and print that daily cycle high at 1400$.

We are getting late in this daily cycle we should print the DCH this week.
isaac312 PRO
3 months ago
how about Silver?
Reply
lbg01 PRO
3 months ago
Thanks for your comment Arpi,
Q for you (and my learing), what signs make you state that this breakdown is false?
Thanks (I am learning!!)
Reply
TPparadigma lbg01
3 months ago
He said that in Description:
Breaking last week's lows and a rally back into the triangle.
After breaking that triangle it should consolidate under it to go lower, but it break it down, and quickly got back in. No consolidation after breakout.
Reply
lbg01 PRO TPparadigma
3 months ago
You are right!
Thank you very much!
Reply
I wonder what can trigger the pop. Will it be BoJ Kuroda speech tonight?
Reply
lluriel PRO pbartashevich
3 months ago
I might be wrong, but kuroda would weaken Yen tonight for another bear trap then Yellen would give the pop imo. Yen is too strong what they are aiming for atm. Would love to hear other opinions on this :)
Reply
kidbroge
3 months ago
Going under last week's low in the Asian session along with Silver under 19 has me thinking bearish short term. However, your comments have me reconsidering. I'm waiting for Silver to go above 19 again to confirm a possible trap. Tomorrow there is news regarding the US housing market. I'm thinking bad numbers and we'll get that pop, on the other hand....
Reply
shobikhan PRO
3 months ago
EXCELLENT ! I see it too.
Reply
USSRandolph
3 months ago
Thank you Arpi, I see your point and am watching closely... Don't want to be premature, watching for clear break out of top of the triangle
Reply
Ronnee
3 months ago
Thanks Arpi , see your points,..going to wait until Friday at least...probably more waffle and indecisive waffle on rates, August NFP should be the catalyst wether they may inc rates sept? Either way, it will move big Friday I feel....may hedge either side of triangle! Thanks for your in depth work and help..Ron











Reply
DangBinh
3 months ago
I see top lower
Reply
UltraVC
3 months ago
counting on this.
Reply
I think we will see 1315-1320 this week.
Reply
PF7 Richardson_UF14
3 months ago
How did you know???
Reply
lslcqq1984
3 months ago
thanks for your comment, Arpi, really appreciate that
Reply
Thank you Arpi. I have a question about cycles in Silver. It usually follows Gold but it made new significant low yesterday without having higher high. Is that would be a new DCL Silver is printing? Also, high cycles counting handling reversals?
snapshot
Reply
USSRandolph pbartashevich
3 months ago
Also, take note of the head & shoulders pattern. Seems bearish fo silver. Usually follows gold but doesn't have to. Has different dynamics in play being valued as industrial metal. Any thoughts on that?
Reply
USSRandolph USSRandolph
3 months ago
Be advised, I haven't looked at what factors are currently affecting silver as of this comment.
Reply
caneman pbartashevich
3 months ago
I think it's possible silver just made a DCL, and had a very long daily cycle that started on 6-2-16 giving it a 60 day cycle... I count 6 DCL's for Silver since 2004 that were 60 days or longer so it is possible... im buying!
Reply
pbartashevich PRO caneman
3 months ago
I have added some too today to my loosing position but I might be very wrong. There are lots of opinions that gold will go down to 1318.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO caneman
3 months ago
Thanks for the answer.
Reply
GDX looks terrible. Big red outside bar. The only thing that can save it right now is immediate reverse and finish the day as pin. Any experienced advise is very welcome right now. Should we close the rest of long positions or hold them. DXY also looks like holding trendline successfully.
snapshot
Reply
pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
3 months ago
Low volume points that this drop probably will reverse.
Reply
epalazzo
3 months ago
Should we consider the possibility that this cycle is a left translated cycle, so the DCH is printed already and all we wait for is the DCL and how deep or shallow it will be?
Reply
USSRandolph
3 months ago
Turned out to be a bull trap!
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out