Hey, Arnaud, I'm a bit surprised to see your view w/ Gold up. I tried to take note of the 1350 level that has been massively tested and failed, together w/ it's prior failure since 2015? This fail makes me think this drop could be a strong one. Lots of people looking for opportunity for long including reasoning like cycle, 30years stats that July~Nov is rise 85% chance..etc., or oversold, rsi divergence. But for me, I'll see how it test the key level....I accept it both way, but right now, it doesn't look good at all. Jeffrey Gundlach said in early 2018 that Gold is going to go strong, one way or the other, although what he said "expected" is gold rise (cos' he sold gold) and it turn out to be a drop...but at least he's right that, this massive attack to 1350 will give you either a strong breakout or strong retreat.
@gcplau, I must admit I had my doubt last week because I posted this idea just before. However looking at that channel between 1200 and 1360 I'm thinking that's too narrow, it's either going to drop to 1130 or break the 1365. It touched 1204 already and USD cycles are not that optimal this week and on top of that I predict that the other majors have an optimal bull run against the USD next Monday. That together with a bunch of USD signals confirming its reversal as directed by UJ seasonality I am expecting a deep decline for USD this week and not later than early next week. I don't see gold do much less than rocket up, and what I read from it's PA it's ready to go.
@lapin_eliott, Is it? Some USD price action did cause me to raise the eyebrows while I was watching Gold at the same time. I never looked into this yet and still developing on my strategies and theories but you now also got me interested into the USD/XAU/JPY triangle. I guess when Gold and USD do not correlate for a moment it will likely be corrected by XAUJPY. When I put a simple equally weighted USD index next to Gold and XAUJPY I see that the index divergence with Gold is the same as that of XAUJPY and Gold. That is exactly what I would expect it t do to balance the triangle. A decoupling of Gold and JPY in case of a further increase of USD strength is plausible however after last week's bull run I noticed a decline of the USD strength at the end of the week while cycles where in favour of the currency, which I predict to end Monday around noon UTC. Then it has another chance near the end of the week, that while I predict that the other majors have a optimal bull run against the USD next Monday and UJ Seasonality queued up with increasing pressure I think it's all going to be just fine and no decoupling is needed imo.
the free fall of gold paralleled with chinese yuan devaluation is a real gift brought on a silver platter to china by the "system", i am very confused to see that the big boys who have orchestrated the fall of gold keep on offering present like this to china. it is not sustainable ... or simply american big boys of wall street are just stupid. anyway the situation of gold is so confusing even for me, i stepped back totally and i'm only spectator on this market until we get to know better what is going on with usd, fed and gold, this is a real chaos now.
@ArnaudKleinveld, a theoretical question for you : suppose a crash of US indices and stock markets (should'nt take that long to be a reality), what would be in your opinion the natural outcome for gold ? surge or fall even harder.
when i ask it, i get 50% people saying gold will surge, 50% the opposite, showing how chaotic the analysis on gold is right now
@lapin_eliott, Assuming dollar loses value as well, Gold will rally up sought for as safe haven by investors when dollar loses value, and as Gold is quoted in USD a devaluation of the currency would appreciate the commodity.