We printed a on the hourly chart.
I just hope that longs covered yesterday instead of celebrating. It could be a pretty nasty breakdown.
It's almost impossible to keep up a continunous rally on these levels (I think today we are below 10 Friday we will see today's numbers)
Don't forget: tomorrow FOMC. A lot of big guys will close in the gains of their longs today and tomorrow.
in gold already the 70% of yesterday's .
Today and tomorrow is going to be an interesting day. After the FED I think we will see if we had the ICL at 1200 or it's just ahead.
Breakdown of the wedge after price came out of the 2015 March ICL .
We had more than 50% retracement.
(Taking out yesterday's low at 1271)
Let's concentrate on the charts. The market always teaches a lesson when someone forget to respect it.
Something is wrong with this gold rally. DUST is in +8%.
RSI leaving overbought territory. It was the sign of a decline in the past.
Trendline backtest? Wants go back into the channel?
It seems everybody is long.
As you watch the gold rally and the miner shares you bought a week ago drop like a rock.
NUGT is in -8%....
All those ones who are with PM with me knows the plan for the FED.
Just one more last chart, to show that markets are confused and would have been better to stay out of this in the past 4 days but I didn't know that. Eurusd, DXY , OIL is working perfectly.
Something is happening to gold though.
And the bulls who thinks they are very clever just look at the USDJPY- xauusd chart. You were just lucky guys.
USDJPY - XAUUSD is inversely correlated
XAUUSD and USDJPY is moving together.
Bulls are so quiet today.
But the important thing:
We are printing a key reversal on the daily chart. Dust, Jdst shouldnt be closed today.
We will have at least 2 more down day in gold. And most probably more....
which must be respected. Did he claim he'll be 100% right though he can still be with this current trade? What will you do if FED increases rates this week?
Or what will you say if price consolidates between 1280-1300 until Brexit vote and the result is stay? There are really nice, appreciative fellow traders here, but
there are other people like you, BjornPfaff and a few more trying to destroy a nice thread. Please keep your opinions to yourself and stay away. Although I am
neither the thread owner nor his lawyer, from now on I'll report the ones who are cynical, teasing or swearing and you'll be banned. Regards.
1) No rate hike hawkish tone
2) "No leave" from UK
3) Good jobs report in July
4) Tons of talking about the rate hike in July from FOMC members
5) Rate hike in July
6) all this time WTI will be dropping - that is also geo political goal (I mean what is good from sanctions on Russia if oil above $50)
This will kill gold.
"We printed a double top on the hourly chart.
I just hope that longs covered yesterday instead of celebrating. It could be a pretty nasty breakdown. "
oops. 1286 now. That nasty breakdown looks like a nasty break up. I wonder if anyone listed to this and got slaughtered. This analysis is more wishy washy than my grandma trying to decide on which rotten apple is the least rotten.
I am new to charts so take my opinion with a grain of salt.
I think the BREXIT thing is just too big and could be invalidating any chart technique until the referendum. So far, we have seen non stop bullishness about gold without any sustained pullback. On a personal note, I think people are over exaggerating BREXIT since Britain has its own currency, I do not see any major impact. In that regards, Would the best time to short Gold be right after the referendum when people realize that the end of the world has not happened?.
With respect to FOMC, I believe that a number one trader's is to avoid losing money, then it is preferable to not hold a position before the FOMC?
Also, based on Walter Bressert, here is what he says about mistakes to not make:
"One of the early signs that you have made a serious mistake is when you change your
routine and...... hoping that
some government action will bail you out. This is not commodity trading; it is hope. Hope is the most devastating of all emotions in trading commodities because it can lull you into complacency. You know when you find yourself hoping, that you are wrong, and should immediately get out of the market, but it takes an unusual amount of self-discipline to take that very large loss."
In this case, is hope be the Federal reserve to raise rates to make this short work?
Anyways , I wish the best for everyone and I hope this trading idea turns out to be spot on Arpi!
Thank you for all your work and to everyone daring posting a chart.