chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - When the wedge breaks down

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
12173 202 112
The ascending wedges are breaking down in 99% of the cases . When they break up the downbreak is always more aggressive. The bull hysteria forced the price to break up from the wedge yesterday. I'm waiting for at least an 50% retracement of the prevoius rally (1246.51)
We printed a double top on the hourly chart.
I just hope that longs covered yesterday instead of celebrating. It could be a pretty nasty breakdown.
It's almost impossible to keep up a continunous rally on these COT levels (I think today we are below 10 Friday we will see today's numbers)
Don't forget: tomorrow FOMC. A lot of big guys will close in the gains of their longs today and tomorrow.
Volume in gold             already the 70% of yesterday's volume .
Today and tomorrow is going to be an interesting day. After the FED I think we will see if we had the ICL at 1200 or it's just ahead.

Comment: After the hysterical moments here are some historical moments:
Breakdown of the wedge after price came out of the 2015 March ICL .
We had more than 50% retracement.
snapshot
Comment: The late bulls' stop is taken out.
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Comment: It' s a good chance that we will have a swing high today.
(Taking out yesterday's low at 1271)
Comment: Correction: swing high will be below 1272. That is yesterday's low.
Comment: Guys let the bulls celebrate , don't fight with them.
Let's concentrate on the charts. The market always teaches a lesson when someone forget to respect it.
Something is wrong with this gold rally. DUST is in +8%.
snapshot
Comment: Miners are down. GDX -2,5%.
RSI leaving overbought territory. It was the sign of a decline in the past.
Trendline backtest? Wants go back into the channel?
snapshot
Comment: And most important thing: NO STOPS ABOVE YESTERDAY'S HIGH....
It seems everybody is long.
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Comment: This could be really frustrating...
As you watch the gold rally and the miner shares you bought a week ago drop like a rock.
NUGT is in -8%....
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Comment: I wanted to post a few more charts today just fat up of the trolls ..
All those ones who are with PM with me knows the plan for the FED.

Just one more last chart, to show that markets are confused and would have been better to stay out of this in the past 4 days but I didn't know that. Eurusd, DXY , OIL is working perfectly.
Something is happening to gold though.
And the bulls who thinks they are very clever just look at the USDJPY- xauusd chart. You were just lucky guys.

USDJPY - XAUUSD is inversely correlated
snapshot
Comment: And look what happened in the last 3 days.
XAUUSD and USDJPY is moving together.
snapshot
Comment: We just tagged the 200 simple moving average on the weekly chart and turning down
from there.
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Comment: 25$ drop in 3 hours. So tell me now that it was not manipulated.
Bulls are so quiet today.
Comment: I will post today or in the night.
But the important thing:
We are printing a key reversal on the daily chart. Dust, Jdst shouldnt be closed today.
We will have at least 2 more down day in gold. And most probably more....
Thank you so much for all your work!
+2 Reply
So we have to keep our short position? At 1246 could be a first step? Just because is my break even :-)
+2 Reply
Thanks. Great posts on Gold. I have been following your thinking on this and love the perspectives you are giving.
+1 Reply
Thanks Sir ... just to tell u that i have sold at 1237 5 days ago and still following ur thoughts
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nice...........im in.
+1 Reply
Very insightful analysis. Thanks
+1 Reply
thank you , smart prediction
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still holding my longs from 1238. not buying. will join you in short positions above 1300.
+2 Reply
FOMC could be dangerous tomorrow. If no rate hike she will announce the July rate hike.
Just like on the 28th Oct 2015. 1200 is not out of the table...
Stocks near all time high, dollar before the summer fall.
They could easily be hawkish tomorrow.
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
I'M sure she doesn't want to give a momentum to the dollar before the elections.

+4 Reply
AlejandroCL7 chartwatchers
However, if Brexit were to happen, gold would go up. Wouldn't you say so?
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chartwatchers PRO AlejandroCL7
Do you really think this kind of decision will be decided by common people?
Of course there will be no Brexit. This is just a show for the people.
+4 Reply
andrej123456 chartwatchers
Hmm I think too that there will be no brexit, but could EUR/USD fall continuously until 22-23th June ? Thanks
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saif12 PRO chartwatchers
Thanks really for your analysis. I laughed when I read your comment earlier about what happened today. in one day, more than 70 $ move up and down, it is absolutely a game played by big players, I thought it just happened in the movie, but here we are in the reality show. Yes it is 100% manipulation
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Thanks for Alert. looking for 1292.
+2 Reply
Thank you! Really appreciate the information!
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bulls are back in the game ;) 1300 here we come !
+3 Reply
EET BjornPfaff
come to the dark side, we have cookies
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I will eat your cookies with pleasure after i will enjoy my bull ride
+3 Reply
keefer0 BjornPfaff
go make your own thread, stop trolling on others.
+3 Reply
Nightstar keefer0
He doesn't know how.
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Nightstar BjornPfaff
I'm currently not but will let you know when it happens ;)
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Lagune PRO BjornPfaff
Make your own thread man, no need to be on others, don't eat anymore of the Peanut Butter and Jealous sandwiches...
+3 Reply
babak_eng BjornPfaff
You are a Joke Bjorn. Believe me its not a triple integral -infiniti to = infiniti to understand your behaviour. If you was making money you would have not wasted your time bashing others in here. I think I said it all. I can bet 100$ and I tell in front of everybody I will pay you 100$ if you show us your real account that you are long I am not talking about those bullshits demo account that my grandma also has as well as my 6 years old nephew. So please stop bashing others in here. and enjoy your bull ride in your dreams of course;)
+2 Reply
forged BjornPfaff
Agree Bjorn, last night lots of shorter stop losses were taken out like cookies. Economic fundamental & common sense overwhelm chart. Negative rates & uncertainties = gold going up.
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Today I was certain it's getting started, but it's like chasing the rabit - I'm so misleaded and now $ is getting strong. Gold fooled us.
+1 Reply
Gold testing the lower line now?
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how's the GOLD going now sir?
+2 Reply
Wrong again. That's how mr. Livermore ended up dead.
+5 Reply
What does this kind of post contribute to the thread followers except satisfaction of your own ego? CW puts an effort and publishes his opinions freely
which must be respected. Did he claim he'll be 100% right though he can still be with this current trade? What will you do if FED increases rates this week?
Or what will you say if price consolidates between 1280-1300 until Brexit vote and the result is stay? There are really nice, appreciative fellow traders here, but
there are other people like you, BjornPfaff and a few more trying to destroy a nice thread. Please keep your opinions to yourself and stay away. Although I am
neither the thread owner nor his lawyer, from now on I'll report the ones who are cynical, teasing or swearing and you'll be banned. Regards.
+10 Reply
USSRandolph blackeagle
Well said my friend. You stated your case and you stated it well without belittling the individual. Kudos to you.
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nexuz forged
why wrong? check the chart properly - if you draw the triangle and watch the price action the price breaks down and retests the triangle as resistance. so far so good imho

snapshot
+2 Reply
forged nexuz
Where is the aggressive breakdown to 1246 ??????
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nexuz forged
FOMC Meeting - there wont be much volatile movements before that. if you expected a breakdown for 40usd in one about 12h prior to a rate decision guess the market will disappoint you. there is just not enough volume for any big movements cause everybody will wait for yellen :)
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How come the break of the wedge didn't hold, is it that risk sentiment is too strong?
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blackeagle BjornPfaff
Then don't follow him. No one needs your opinion or guidance here. Go make your own thread.
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ocra BjornPfaff
Your lines are thin i must say. Why don't you tell your conviction and help eachother.
+1 Reply
it reached 76 or so, got rejected fast, wedge colapse is not a matter of if, its a matter of when and how much will reach before colapsing.
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Now, I think we just hold oue guard tightly. We must survive..!!
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Is the party about to begin?
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Arpi, MACD has nice divergence on miners on weekly charts. Do you think tomorrow after FED announcement will be the same trend down?
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I think FED meeting results must support US dollar because if Brexit vote will be "no leave" the dollar will drop significantly (along with gold). I expect no rate hike but hawkish tone. By doing that they keep July on table and can control markets better through talking. Here what well may happen:
1) No rate hike hawkish tone
2) "No leave" from UK
3) Good jobs report in July
4) Tons of talking about the rate hike in July from FOMC members
5) Rate hike in July
6) all this time WTI will be dropping - that is also geo political goal (I mean what is good from sanctions on Russia if oil above $50)

This will kill gold.
+1 Reply
andrej123456 pbartashevich
exactly the same opinion man. 5 minutes left and we will see.
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I think DUST is manipulated, giving false hope, If no rate hike tomorrow, It will crash
+1 Reply
traderzaius RaimondasKarth
NUGT correction, it might blast off tomorrow. DUST is in danger zone.
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Yes - still same view for me Arpi... GDX on 4 day low, DUST breaking up, XAUUSD held the daily NY close under the right shoulder of 1284.41.... Very interested in the difference of your projection low between if the ICL was May 30, or just ahead.
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EricBuss bertcoin
I think ahead..
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I'm on the fence and I think Arpi has decided to wait for the fed to see. Either way, the only difference might(?) be the target exit price on the short, hence my question.
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What about platinum ? Down today -2%, it should be the sign of collapsing PM, in next days. Platinum as a precious metal decoupled from gold, but will couple soon.
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Could you please expand more on the last comment? The reasoning behind it.
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I agree, don't understand how a rise above above yesterday's high is a good bearish sign?
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nexuz mabaert
Check out daily to get the answer - we need to Take out yesterdays high to form a reversal on daily. Bearish hammer / shooting Star / doij and so on
+1 Reply
So, it's considered to be a good sign to go higher on daily chart, but only if it can round off on a bearish pin bar. Correct?
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xiiimik mabaert
It is a bearish sign here. I got idea after a few minutes. Basically price action was rejected. Divergence. Crossing of EMA 20 (1h). Bullish sentiment, since price action went above yesterday's high. Bullish sentiment could lead though to reversals, cos sentiment created by majority, but only minority has a buying power far exceeding of that majority group.
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EricBuss xiiimik
Well said, man.. Time will tell-- (I mean, WHEN TOMMORROW Comes:}
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xiiimik EricBuss
I bet you long. Lol.
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Do you mean we should enter short now?
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IT Actually makes me quiet happy.. Miners can drop all they want :)! $JDST :bull:
+1 Reply
Arpi , i would wait to go short man , really don't say things that will happen when they will not. The thing is , Gold is soaring , because of the so called Brexit. It is unstoppable for this week , even with the Fed comming up tomorrow. just wait to short, thats all i can say. Technicals are worthless here
+2 Reply
xiiimik BjornPfaff
It is actually not only technicals...
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saint_athur BjornPfaff
I just read bloomberg they had reported not june, not likely july but more likely september. But i believe 1289 is a bullish stop. We are moving down tomorow.
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I alrady close my long position.r re entry short at 1288. I agree with you arpi, something not right happen. Tomorow is a bearish day and lets kill those buyer including soros. Not only soros, professional firm, hedge fund also hold long. This is what i read from kitco, bloomberg and investing.
+1 Reply
Looks good to short at 15 min chart. Precious candle got rejected at resistance.
+1 Reply
"The ascending wedges are breaking down in 99% of the cases "
"We printed a double top on the hourly chart.
I just hope that longs covered yesterday instead of celebrating. It could be a pretty nasty breakdown. "

oops. 1286 now. That nasty breakdown looks like a nasty break up. I wonder if anyone listed to this and got slaughtered. This analysis is more wishy washy than my grandma trying to decide on which rotten apple is the least rotten.
+4 Reply
Gold still hasn't reached the high in April (1302) and Brexit campaign will continue till 23rd, UK 100 is still falling, so maybe it will stay long??
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forged SupraBoy
Chartists often detatch from reality. There are also monetary issue, global uncertainty & volatility factors that need to be put into consideration. There is no such thing 99% certainty with chart, or else every chartist is self made multi-millionaires. Gold is money & everything else is credit. It is a true safe-heaven all-weather investment. It shines when all things fail.
+2 Reply
"Comment. This could be really frustrating..."
Yes it is. But do you have any commentary on why so? (i have my idea, but you're the master here so would like to get your take on it first)
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I think the price action of gold miners is accumulating the knowledge and analysis of gold's price action, so gold miners traders anticipate gold to drop.
+1 Reply
pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
I don't like today's volume in miners though.
+1 Reply
traderzaius pbartashevich
I do not think so. Miners are just over stretched above 200 dma and are having a correction, we will probably see it go up again the next few days. I don't see any big moves in gold until after Brexit.
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I wonder if Asia and Europe will sell gold this night, since it will be the last chance for them to do it before FOMC meeting results.
+2 Reply
Ascending wedges are breaking down 99% of the time? Sounds legit.
+5 Reply
its just a trade.Set your tp,sl and let it be.
+1 Reply
people are buying JPY and GOLD at the moment as safe heaven
+2 Reply
What do you mean by PM? I'm still following you, been with this short-call all the way. would like to continu that, so how can I follow your fed-plan?
+2 Reply
the_roggy mabaert
Same question...
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Quite funny that most people criticizing CW have never posted a single chart. I really like CW's work, the detailed explanations he provides at each posting is very useful for many. Also, he got me interested to learning more about Walter Bressert techniques which is very impressive. By the way, CW was not the only having a bearish stance on gold but almost everyone that was seeing the flag including Tntsunrise.

I am new to charts so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

I think the BREXIT thing is just too big and could be invalidating any chart technique until the referendum. So far, we have seen non stop bullishness about gold without any sustained pullback. On a personal note, I think people are over exaggerating BREXIT since Britain has its own currency, I do not see any major impact. In that regards, Would the best time to short Gold be right after the referendum when people realize that the end of the world has not happened?.

With respect to FOMC, I believe that a number one trader's is to avoid losing money, then it is preferable to not hold a position before the FOMC?

Also, based on Walter Bressert, here is what he says about mistakes to not make:



HOPE

"One of the early signs that you have made a serious mistake is when you change your
routine and...... hoping that
some government action will bail you out. This is not commodity trading; it is hope. Hope is the most devastating of all emotions in trading commodities because it can lull you into complacency. You know when you find yourself hoping, that you are wrong, and should immediately get out of the market, but it takes an unusual amount of self-discipline to take that very large loss."

In this case, is hope be the Federal reserve to raise rates to make this short work?

Anyways , I wish the best for everyone and I hope this trading idea turns out to be spot on Arpi!

Thank you for all your work and to everyone daring posting a chart.

Cheers
+4 Reply
It is hard to trade in this day and age without accounting for central banks intervening. With currencies, it is obvious as banks just print free money and change policies at will, and most recently gold was heavily manipulated by bullion banks. To have success you need to see the interventions being set up and to protect yourself against them in case things go wrong.
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We will see tomorrow if USDJPY post a double bottom. Everything is arranged for that.
+1 Reply
The chart where you show the inverse correlation looks bullish for gold IMO. It's been pressuring the upper end of the trading range rather than the opposite. USDJPY is saturated with retail longs, something like 75 to 25... To me that's bearish USDJPY , hence bullish GOLD. Price is moving up and speculators are adding gold, thats confirmation of uptrend. This short isn't working out for good reason and constantly trying to fight it back is just going to hurt you. I'm only saying this because i used to make these noobish retail mistakes myself, its better to admit your wrong and move on. Best of luck to you !
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can you explain more USDJPY and GOLD MOVEMENT
so whats your expectation??
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now i like the fact u look at jpy ;D
+1 Reply
Sold all my gold stocks yesterday. I will wait until the Brexit vote is done to jump back in. Until then I will take a break from gold as I don't short. I don't want to manage risk on both sides (long and short).
Thanks chartwatchers for your valuable time. I never saw anyone spending so much time on a regular basis providing insightful info to everyone for FREE.
+3 Reply
Look at USDJPY weekly chart. It has to bounce from 200 weeks moving average or die. Sorry don't know how to insert a picture but you can draw a horizontal support line at 105.55 that starts from 2013-12-30 to today. It has some other bounces on 204-10-06. Weekly MACD is crossing. Weekly momentum is turning up. Given today's circumstances - strengthening of USD, and the fact that JPY was strong for quite some time, I am leaning to say it will not break that line and 200 weeks moving average. That would be too much. Therefore it should bounce up. Probably tomorrow after FOMC.
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pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
Plus it is forming little falling wedge on daily chart which breaks up :) if I got it right :)
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Gold is a bear trap.
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forged traderzaius
Vertical rise in the price of Gold is inevitable like it did in early January, it will clean up all shorter positions mercilessly. DUST long position holders will be dusted to the street.
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