XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!

In last weeks KOG report we said we were looking for a pullback at some point during the week targeting the 1845-50 region and higher immediate targets of 1874 and 1881. We saw price create a high of the week at the 1877 level and then create a very difficult range to trade before declining into that 1845-50 price zone. We also highlighted the Adam and Eve pattern which had formed on the chart alongside the lower high on the 4 hourly which gave us a hint of the bearish movement that was to come. Hope the updates and analysis during last week helped traders with making the right decisions in the markets.

So what can we expect in the week ahead?

We would like to see some more bearish pressure on Gold this week, however, having said we can most certainly expect some more whipsaw, choppy and difficult to trade price action. Although the movement on Friday looks aggressive the actual movement in price isn’t as extreme as what institutions are capable of in a sell off. We will remain with our view where we are looking for the lower levels to get in to the long trade targeting the 1900 level and potentially beyond. Unless this breaks and holds below the 1820 where we will re-assess the markets again.

We can see that 1830 target being achieved so if the markets open bullish tomorrow we will look at the higher resistance levels of 1850. 1855 and above that 1860 to target that lower level of 1830 and below that the 1820-17 price points. If we reach these levels we will look for a strong rejection and support and then potentially take the long position for the higher levels.

The flip side to the above is if we continue down from here we'll look for a strong level to form as support and then get in for the long trade. In this case we will need to trade it level to level as we don't want to get stuck in short trades if the market decides it wants to turn aggressively from the support levels.

Please keep in mind, if they really want to stretch the buy from dippers they can take it all the way back down to 1795-97 before resuming the bullish move. For this reason, any short trades we take we will make sure to take partial profits along the way and protect the trades so we don’t miss out on any further decline.

We’re still bearish on Gold but we would like to see our higher Excalibur targets achieved before Gold resumes any declines.

Support:
1830
1820
1817
1805
1790-95


Resistance:
1850
1855
1864
1875
1885
1895

We have added the hourly chart below which we had shared with our group during last week. You can see the price is still in the range with a slight breakout to the top and now its targeting the lower support. What you’re looking for here is a break or rejection in the area below.


We’ve also added the 4H chart which shows the Adam and Eve pattern we were monitoring last week. What we’re looking at here is to see if they complete the move around the 1830 level or they stretch it out a little further down towards the 1807-10 levels and below that 1790 before resuming the bullish movement. We’ve also highlighted the support levels below so you know what to look for if a level is broken.


Again this week we will be trading lighter than usual mostly from level to level removing most of our positions when we reach short term targets and moving stops to entry just incase the price resumes in the direction.