Gold H4 Analysis - One more run at 1225?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Quite a few mixed signals on the H4.

As per my daily chart analysis, I prefer shorts at the moment. Having said that, we're at a pretty good bounce point if you believe in another run at 1225.

I think there are 3 likely scenarios:

1) Bounce right around the current level back up to the daily Ichi cloud flat bottom at 1225. If price wants to test 1225 again, I think it shouldn't break through the H4 cloud (much).

2) Break through the H4 cloud down to 1183 and then straight further south. That level is the Tenkan Sen of the daily chart , so could be strong'ish support. Having said that, my overall bias is pretty short right now so we could sail straight past that level.

3) Break of the H4 cloud but then a bounce from 1183 back up to 1200. After that, my bias is STILL short unless much changes. Will reassess when the time comes.

So while my daily bias is short, right now I'm NEUTRAL on the H4. Not surprising, the Euro guys just went home ;)
UPDATE: Medium term bias is now SHORT because we broke through the Kumo cloud to the downside.
It's as if the market saw my up arrow and really wanted to stick as close to it as possible :D
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