It's always tough to make a correct call ahead of FOMC meeting. Sometimes the FED is setting the direction, sometimes the next day all the currencies and metals are reversing. This was the case yesterday too. All the gains of Wednesday were dusted yesterday.
Now gold's daily chart looks like a flag to me : it's just waiting for to break down. It's still not crystal clear how far it can drop : it might be a shallow decline to 1270 or a deeper correction down to the 200 SMA . Once it starts I will update the possible targets.
I highlighted the similar cycle zones with orange boxes in the past where price was waiting for the same breakdown as today. Once we complete this final drawdown gold can finally rally above 1400.
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Wow. DXY.
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DXY rallied 0,5% in an hour. Gold is held up artificially in these moments.
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The flag broke down today.
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The flag in silver also broke down.
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Platinum is also down today and staying in the range for a while.
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And if you think some things raise forever : Sooner or later the ICL is coming for every commodity... Palladium is down by 6% today.
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Clear breakdown of the flag in Gold.
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It’s just a matter of time when gold breaking down the $1280 level.
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Chance is high for a 20$ red csnfle today. that would mean 1290-92$ daily close.
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*candle
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1292 is on the way. What a bear...
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1292 here we go.
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Scalp longs ON.
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From this point there is no question: the 1277-1282 level will be broken down.
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Scalp longs OFF
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Building a triangle in gold 4h chart
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Triangles usually continuation patterns so I’m waiting for this triangle to break down. Today or tomorrow
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And here is the breakdown. 1280 will be taken out soon.
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Every possible trendline is broken.
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I still think the IC hasn’t finished yet. A fadt move down could clear sentiment.
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It is as if gold is at the edge of the ravine and waiting for someone to push it down
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Holding the shorts.
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We back tested the break down. I don’t think it’s going to stop here.
Trade closed manually
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We are running out of time in this short trade. I closed the position today.
Correlation with DXY will weaken as USD creates less and less yield - see US10Y falling even though DXY strengthening. Gold may soon have no lower yield, or not much lower in any event, than any major currency, and is the only money that holds value in bad times...
mstable
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@mstable, Gold now has exactly the same yield as the German 10 Year Bund - 0%. And a Bund is more easily burned!
bertcoin
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My original target was around 1248 (around 200MA), but I'm not confident enough in that chart to hold my long decaying shorts, so I exited on this breakdown at a very small loss. I'll try to time the low better and ride it up out of the ICL. (Do you agree this will be the ICL?)
chartwatchers
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@bertcoin, absolutely. We are on week 35 after all. This week or next will print the low.
bertcoin
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The triple bottom of about 1280 is a good target to run the stops for the cycle low....
chartwatchers
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@bertcoin, here is your stop run Bert, this is how this market works. Always the biggest dog walks away with the bone.
Andrewone
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What gonna happen now Arpi? Gold has bounced all down move and can't pass down 1280, forst low on the firs fall
Andrewone
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@Andrewone, Triangle? or just a pullback before keeps falling
pbartashevich
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Hi, Weekly candles still look bullish. I think rally will continue to 1341.
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@pbartashevich, yea that’s true but it still looks like a flag to me. Good call in the gold rush idea. I also scalped the bounce.
I would like to see RSI oversold on the weekly before calling a bottom.