Corrective waves don't travel a huge distance in a straight line for 4 months without a single opposite candle. The rule of thumb is that if you have 3 up candles then you're likely to have at another 2 up candles. The reason is simple: once a trend or habit has formed, it takes time to reverse it. E.g., an entrenched dictatorship is not easily toppled even if the people are miserable under it. The price of the iPhone is not going to fall suddenly just because another company is making better and cheaper phones. The price of gold is not going to fall suddenly or without a struggle. Nature simply does not work that way. Please review your analysis and see if there could be alternative ways of looking at the situation.
DarkWaveHunter
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Target around 1000$? fundamental factors don't say so...
Acel
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@mhparsa, "fundamentals" are a tool for retail to believe in so serious players can make $
DarkWaveHunter
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@Acel You mean patterns are cause of all that happens in traders minds? not a mirror of them?
Acel
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@mhparsa, patterns are a reflection of human sentiment.
Euphoric at the top, depressive at the bottom. Greed and fear is all what charts represent, the in-between is noise.
DarkWaveHunter
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@Acel, Interesting idea... not easily provable though...
Space is relative. So is the tops and bottoms you talking about. Actually what shows you fear and greed of the markets is the fundamentals factors that works scientifically.
Acel
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@mhparsa, participating in the markets means you are up against people that have info that you dont and way before you do. That info is available to them way before it goes to smaller groups, which is way way way before it goes public, which is way way way way way way before it reaches to you.
People that say the same things as you - trust me you are not the only one, you all say the exact same staff regardless of market - are as closer as it gets to the last person that gets the info.
If you want to survive, you trade the technicals, not "fundamentals" and/or opinions of talking heads, youtube personas and everyone else that its sole purpose is to make their balance bigger while having no idea what they are talking about.
DarkWaveHunter
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@Acel, Well then you could find many situations in past that chart says something and fundamental says another, and fundamentals has been wrong and the trend stayed against its real factors for a significant period. Look around in this website, full of the opposite. Actually it's technical analysis that is more vulnerable and in its nature it's relative and conditional. One that analysis technically says if this zone break that would happen, if that zone act as support this would happen.... but fundamental isn't like that. Can you find a period in which economics risks are lower but gold price is rising significantly? Of course not (not other significant fundamental factors change). If you found let me know.
Yes, make profit in market means use the information sooner than others but this isn't all that trading is about. I have a MA in Economics and I know how economics works more than many nonprofessionals. Trading in financial markets also means using information "better" than others, not just sooner than others.
You neglecting many facts cause the idea you talk about is interesting, but unfortunately it's not all the way true. I make 10-40% profit in a trade day based on fundamental an technical that fits to it, so for me it's obvious that without a fundamental there's not consistent profit.
Acel
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@mhparsa,
TomPower
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any update on "the Big Short on Gold". not looking so good, might be time to hang the gloves up on your charting career!