Gold setting up for an impulsive rally

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
638 8 14
Gold             broke out of the long term ending diagonal on the weekly time frame. For my weekly wave count of January 7 see below:

The structure on the 4 hour chart is relatively obvious in terms of the previous impulse that resulted in the break. However the consolidation does not look right to me. This does not mean off course that it cannot be completed already, it only means that I will wait a bit longer until the structure shows me a high probability trade opportunity.
The arrows show an indication of my preferred scenario. The main trade however will be the bullish continuation. If we see price continue higher from here I simple wait for the next consolidation.


Comment: Still looking for that last leg lower for wave C for the ideal buy set-up scenario. If it moves higher from here I have to wait for the next consolidation.

Comment: I've been posting about a correction of larger degree for a week now and I still think this is the way to go. If not then I let gold go for now because buying from here is not what I like to do.

Let's see whether we see the leg lower for wave C soon before a major buy trade might present itself.

Comment: Gold takes its time for the correction which is good after such a strong impulse and reversal on the weekly time frame. I'll be looking to sell the break for a wave C lower. If we move higher I need an impulse first because buying this structure is not what I like to do.

Comment: Because I didn't see what I was looking for I let Gold go for now. However we might see a correction soon and I'll be looking for the bearish break, consolidation and sell the continuation.
updates will follow.

Trade active: We saw the break looking for this expanded flat correction (where wave B is allowed to overshoot the origin of wave A) to reach at least 1170.

Hi guys,

following the last FOMC statement, what do you see now?

I was short as well and hedged my short position until a clear bearish partern unfold.

For now, I expect a small ABC correction

jbourgault jbourgault
I really don't think the next retracement will be much important (1255 = 0.236 fib level). Perhaps we'll see a double top or something similar (which would correlated with the USDOLLAR going down to ~11880 + the SPX to reach the top trend line).

are you shorting AUDUSD as well ?
Thank You Tim. Good Job! I'm in :)
+1 Reply
i was looking at the same thing now ..my last short resulted in a break even trade however i wait for a pullback before entering my short position goodluck !!
+1 Reply
TimStuyts glaazie
That is a wise thing to do, I entered aggressively because I saw all Aussie pairs weaken and I like the structure. Let's see what Gold gives us, my stop is at break even and I like to add to this short position after a significant consolidation on 1 hr time frame. I'll update tomorrow, hopefully when we see the next consolidation of lesser degree (hence the 1 hr time frame, notice that this set-up is based on the 4 hr structure)
Thank you !
+1 Reply
You're welcome!
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