- Looking at the trend is still .
- Correction sent Gold price up to multiple supports: previous horizontal resistance, major downtrend line and Kijun Sen (26 weeks average)
- Below this major of 1160-1180 we may see some consolidation, or one more leg down. The question is if wee see a lower low in coming weeks. Only without a lower low will Gold have chance to make a strategic reversal above 1200.
- setup is neutral on the lower time frame and will be considered as neutral between 1100 - 1150. Obviously for continuation it should trade back below 1100, for reversal we'd need a valid Kumo breakout above 1160.
- Heikin Ashi signals some consolidation and maybe a pull back is ahead. haDelta reached extreme high, Price needs to consolidate a bit. Also the candle pattern from yesterday and today shows some loss of short term momentum.
- Looking at the whole setup I think Price may pull back a bit to the 1106 - 1122 - 1138 . If we see a Heikin Ashi signal there, then we can enter / size up longs again.
Of course no one knows what will exactly hapen, maybe global risk off and dollar selling accelerates so much that Gold suddenly just breaks all supports and reverses strategic . Well, that signal would be very obvious for everyone.
So my bias remains cautious , but my position size remains cautious too.
I will either buy more on 1175-1200 break, or when I see a new buy signal after dip to daily supports.
Advise is same as always:
1. don't predict, don't believe, just follow
2. risk management ( adjusted position sizing, trailing stops, and protecting your trading capital) is a lot more important than the signals, entries and exits, or the timing itself.
If FED ignores equity mkt correction and hikes in September, that means they do it because of credibility. They really cornered themselves with waiting for so long with the first hike, as if they don't do it now, then they lose all the remaining credibility and market will immediately speculate about QE4. This would be very bullish for Gold.
Anyway, even if they hike once (e.g. 0,25 %), I really dount they will force it further.
My basic scenario is that they will do one hike, USD goes bit stronger again, retests technical breakout levels, Gold follows, but finally market will realise it is not going to be a massive tightenning cycle, USD goes weaker again, and Gold reverses bullish. Of course this is just meditation about one possible scenario.
We rather trade price action and the chart, not our belief, don't we?