XAUUSD OVERVIEW FOR 12/16

XAUUSD OVERVIEW FOR 12/16
Strategy Summary
Gold is holding steady but the main trend is unclear due to a series of strong news today. I will trade in a "wait for confirmation" style, clearly dividing into two scenarios:

Price increase confirmed when breaking above 4320
Price decrease confirmed when breaking below 4271

1) Important price levels on the chart

4320: confirmation point for buyers + resistance/FVG area above
4370 – 4373: strong liquidity area → prioritize waiting for a reaction to SELL

4271: confirmation point for sellers (break support)
Lower area (according to structure/trend line): deep support area where price may react before bouncing back (as per the arrow drawn)

2) Today's trading scenarios (in "trade the level" style)
Scenario A – Price Increase (only confirmed when breaking above 4320)

If the H1 candle closes clearly above 4320, gold is likely to move up to test the liquidity area above.
Priority at this time: watch for short-term BUY according to the rhythm (as per the arrow), avoid FOMO in the middle.

Reasonable target: heading towards the 4370 – 4373 area (Strong Liquidity).
But note: 4370 – 4373 is an area prone to "sell reaction" due to large liquidity there.
Scenario B – Price Decrease (confirmed when breaking below 4271)

If the price breaks below 4271 and the retest fails, the bearish scenario will prevail (consistent with the "sell retest" idea on the chart).
✅ Sell 4271
SL: 4280
Expectation: the price may extend the downward rhythm to deeper support areas according to the structure.

3) Main SELL order at the large liquidity area
✅ Sell entry: 4370

SL: 4380
Logic: This is a "Strong Liquidity" area – where profit-taking/distribution forces are likely to appear. Only SELL when there is a reaction, do not chase the sell.

4) Today's News

Today there is a series of data that could cause gold to swing sharply and sweep both ends:

Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Core Retail Sales m/m
Non-Farm Employment Change
Retail Sales m/m
Unemployment Rate
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Flash Services PMI
My principle: light volume before the news, wait for the market to "reveal its hand" after the news, then follow 4320 / 4271.

5) Risk Management
Do not enter orders in the middle of the noise. Only trade when the price hits the level and there is confirmation.
Question for everyone: Which scenario do you lean towards today — breaking above 4320 or breaking below 4271?