Though we still cannot call the bottom yet, we are clearly consolidating and trying to end this decline. If we don't break lower during this week (dec-27-dec.30) we might have had the bottom at day 49. A 49 day long cycle is long enough to have a good bounce especially if we are at the intermediate low.
The first sign of the bottom is usually the break of the daily down trendline. Because of the election night pop it's pretty hard to tell which trendline is the valid trendline. So I was monitoring 3 trendlines. This night we've clearly broken the 3rd (green) trendline and attacking the 10 EMA. (All trendline is broken)
The next step is a close above the 10 EMA and print a daily swing. The daily swing will be valid with any close above 1145$.
Indicators: MACD has crossed over again and coming back from extreme levels. RSI finally left oversold territory Volume decreased in the decline : sellers dried up
Even if we go below 1000 $ - what I still don't think- first we will have a good rally for 5-6 weeks in 2017 Q1. So all the traders who are waiting for sub 1000$ gold prices will have to face with a strong rally in the following weeks. The strength of the rally will determine we are still in a bull market or we are back to the bear market.
Wherever we are it's going to be a tough fight with powerful testbacks . So my suggestion is to have a starter position and be very careful with the down spikes.If the position is too big they will shake you out.
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We printed the daily swing a few minutes ago by tagging 1151$. Let's see if it holds by the end of the day.
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Deutsche Bank was running the shorts' stops this morning .The question is : was it just a short run and we are heading lower again, or we are just flagging and going to break higher. I think the US market will give us the answer. Dont forget we are in the low volume holiday trading... So banks might just want to earn a "little" money in volatility by running the stops.
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We couldn't close above the 10 EMA, but we are clearly holding above the green trendline at the close. The best point for the entry is a clear close above the 10 EMA. The problem with that entry that price might be above 1160-70 by that time and you miss 40-50$ of that move..
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USA is buying and gold is resisting the strong dollar today.
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Gold closed above the 10 EMA. 90% we bottomed on the 15th December at 1122$.
Comments
Hks6996
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Arpi, we all missed you and your awesome analysis on XAUUSD,NGAS, LABU, etc... Tradeview has not been the same without you.
Sharky8899.
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You guys are chasing the bottom, as a cycle trader you dont chase in my oppinion. You wait for the YCL, missing a 2 % move from the bottom is not big deal when the rewards are greater and you avoided risk.
Wait for a Weekly or if you want to be more conservative monthly swing, in my oppinion the dollar is key here, and i personlly want to se a break of 102.50 and possibly a move into its ICL.
Nightstar
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Deutsche Bank was fined not to long ago for manipulating Silver. Are they at it again this morning with Gold?? F*ckers.
investment6300
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@Nightstar, I think money made is much more than fine and those judgement against them know that also
BjornPfaff
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@Nightstar, why fuckers ? Thats just the market dude a bull rally is to early
A-shot
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Last update has a lot of sense, with the the low volume
CalGreens
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Thanks you & happy holidays!
leonarddavidson60
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ARPI,THANKS FOR AN UPDATE..AGREE 100% that we are about to start a very powerful rally in gold..Bullion cartel has practically ending their daily "suppressiing game"..due to the fact that "bulldozers" gone too far and current extreme pessimism may damage their main business ..seling physical to central banks.
Also,Chinese has picked on this very quickly and put massive orders through London and Switzerland..Two major deliveries to SGE reported in last two weeks exceeding 100tons are just the tip of the iceberg considering massive spike in orders to swiss refineries paying premium for any scrap they can get..
Irrelevent if dollar drops as many TA independed chartolohists predict or not..Bullion banks must take a longer side at Comex to be able not to be underwater filling their contractual obligations to central bank buyers entered early in the year..at this price level they ll facing hundreds of milillion in losses..and as anybody like yourself who'se been in pm game long enough knows--bullion banks never loose money!! Simly,because they fully control the market prices..Personally,i expect a major gap to the upside..like many times before..It is very possible that "window of opportunity" would close unexpectadly quick..and simply ,a "gentelman's entry " to pm market would not be possibke at current screaming buy prices!!
I ll adding more JNUG shares today..
Good trading to everyone!!
saif12
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@leonarddavidson60, Do not get too excited my friend, or at least be careful longing gold. It is still going down, there is no tiny shred of indication that it will go up. and a free advice, do not ever listen to the news. I will be adding more JDST by the end of the week or early next week.
chartwatchers
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@saif12, GDX printed an island reversal yesterday. You easily can have a 25% loss every day. This late in the decline no professionals are shorting miners with 3x ETFs.