hopelessly overbought: short Gold

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
527 9
RSI getting extreme... Stochastics generating sell signal. Target price at 1176.
The same in daily.
you know I love you. Please don't hate me for respectfully disagreeinghttps://www.
I agree with you Bracken.
Just watch what's happening with commodities at the ending bear market...
The initial rally is followed by a consolidation ( pennant, raising triangle etc), but price cannot really drop and it produces the same length of rally as before.
Watch the similarities with oil 2009... I wouldn't be surprised if gold goes above 1400....
And who will buy it? The top calling shorts with their short coverings....

+1 Reply
bracken chartwatchers
Thank you chartwatchers for taking me seriously. Not many do. Not to critsize anyone cause its my own fault. I'm not taking myself seriously either :-)
To your question "And who will buy it?" and you answer yourself: "The top calling shorts with their short coverings"..
I could not agree more. But that's not all. A lot of bulls were taken by surprise too and are behind the curves. Me for one. About a month ago I took a hedge for about 50%. "There got to come a pullback soon" Thanks to darth.stocks (that at the time was more bullish than me) I immediately reduced the hedge by 50%. For that I'm grateful and can't thank him enough. The remaining 25% hedge has followed me since then. Somehow it seemed there was never a pullback big enough for me get back to the position I originaly had.
See? This is a starting bull market: once you lose your position you will not be able to get back.
If you are lucky you ride it with a small position. If you are not lucky you watch the rally from the sidelines.
If you are dumb you start a "revenge short" to get some money from the young bull for the missed opportunity . And then you will lose everything.

THere are a very few people who can let his winners run. They are making the real money in this business. I'm trying to hold my followers in position.
Respectfully--RSI and Stoch in 120 min bars for gold...really??
Let's look at daily or weekly instead. Ooops very high there too. Monthly then. OK very high but please look in the chart for how long gold can ride with very high numbers on stoch....or low numbers for that matter. Several years and this one has just started.
I agree with your argumentation, but it's still the futures market that matters. Although from the classical supply/demand view (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/L6gS7pta-Wyckoff-style-analysis-of-XAUUSD-and-XAUXCU/) we had a high Volume surge making a new bull market realistic. But this requires a so called SOS (sign of strength) with a correction back into last few years trading range and a continuation of the upward trend (otherwise it's just another bear market rally)... And in fact if this happens from the current P&F chart a minumum Target of 2400 US$ is realistic.
bracken darth.stocks
darth. my friend
There is a lot of extra activities goings on in Comex such as for insurance and hedging purposes. Especially around cyclical tops and bottoms. It's more of arbitrages than actual sales but they are of course booked as Commercial Sales on Comex. futures market, real and/or synthetic

When even the bulls are pessimistic the sentiment is low. How then do you recognize a true bull?? All the surprises will come to the up side. That is a bull
Well, today this is really irrational exuberance... I know the guy who originally said this was wrong in everything he did (from the historic point of view), and I also do not expect to be right (from the short term view). But also if Blackrock suspended it's trading of IAU due to lack of physical supply there is no rational behind todays movements.
bracken darth.stocks
Are you giving me Greenspeak? That's a low blow..... But OK I'll try to answer :-)
"Irrational exuberance" is Greenspeak at its' finest.Let's analyze what he is saying. He is saying the market is irrational. For that statement he needs a rationale. Why is the market irrational? The rationale here is the word exuberance. It's like saying the girl is enormously pregnant. You can't be enormously pregnant. Either you are pregnant or not. You can't use the word exuberance as a rationale to irrational. That would be a circular proof. You would be using the statement as a proof of the statement. Like God exists because he exists. Greenspeak at its finest. May I say pure hogwash.
OK with that out of the way. Lets talk Blackrock and IAU. It was not lack of physical (gold) supply that forced Blackrock to suspend it's trading (buying) IAU. It actually was lack of IAU's shares. The emitter of IAU-shares could not sell any more shares because they didn't have any more to sell. The emitter needs to buy more gold first and there is a time lag for that to happen. At least that is the explanation I have heard. Too bad for Blackstone because I believe they truly wanted more IAU's. Why? Look for your self. Btw extracting triangle has its name because it's both expanding and contracting at the same time. Expanding to the up side and contracting to the down side. Thus a bullish formation
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