Gold - Internal weakness and conspiration theory

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
2479 38 57
“…the fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions.” - Jesse Livermore
I've found an interesting thing in gold             which proves why the bulls will not be right this time...
Gold             is moving opposite the US Dollar Index             .
I highlighted in orange boxes where gold             was normal (rallying with the declining dollar and falling with the strengthening dollar)
Green box where gold             was strong: rallying with the strengthening dollar.
Red box where gold             is weak.
At the beginning of February gold             was acting normally. At the end of February gold             was strong.
At the end of April gold             became very weak : the dollar was in a panic selling stage and gold             was just having a light rally.
At the 3rd of May dollar started a very strong rally and suddenly gold             became "strong" again... It's in a fake bull flag which is not going to break to the upside. Someone is holding the price in a range/flag to let a few big players to get out. Gold             looks strong but it's just a fake power. It was not able to rally at the end of May at the dollar's panic selling. Why would it be strong now? Once the big players are finished selling their gold             positions to retail traders and no need to hold gold             price a this level : gold             is going to fall like a stone. And what will happen if the dollar rallies more before the Brexit? It will have a really scary decline....
Comment: Today's gold candle is very expensive one. It costs million if not billions to someone...
Gold should be around 1240$ by now.
Comment: Can they finally get out of the way of gold's decline at the retail sales data today?!
Comment: Reatail sales increase biggest in a year : 1.3% jump in April..
This will be very good for the stocks. ANd very good for the dollar.
ANd bad news for gold.
Comment: I wonder how long can they stay in the way of gold's decline...
Comment: If the dollar rallies with stocks they will give it up soon.
They will let it fall.
Comment: I mean they will let gold to fall...
Comment: An important question:
"If they sell gold the price would drop. How can they prop up the price? "
If smartmoney starts to sell gold heavily price will drop. No question.
But if they know the direction exactly they have to do 2 things:
hold the price while they can get rid of all the positions in the wrong direction. They let the price fall but before it would collapse they are buying it back. They pull it up and sell it again. Every time their positions in the wrong direction is getting less and less. The retail trader bulls are sucking up their positions. In the meanwhile the news are trying to push everybody into the wrong direction: gold will go to the sky - yes it will in 4 years but not immediately - , there will be no correction etc. If you are short you exactly know how frustrating it is. It looks like they are buying every dip. After some time you fat up close the shorts (this a buy also!!!!) and go long or go to the sidelines.
So before the huge moves very few retail traders are in the good direction. Most of them at the sidelines as lost every money in the whipsaws or in the wrong direction.

Let me clear one thing. The big banks, great funds , Goldman Sachs etc. do exactly know what is happening. They have all the important information . A rate hike is not decided on a FED meeting. They are just discussing the facts that have been decided a month before. Around now a few big players already know what will be the rate decision at the next FED meeting (June 14-15). Smartmoney is getting positioned in the right direction now in the dollar , in gold , in stocks.
Our mission is to find out from the small signs of the charts what is happening. But these people are not stupid. They are building traps for us. So we have to be very-very good to catch the good direction at the good time. That's the reason I play longer term than most of the traders here. The big money is in the big trends - the one was in oil.
You're really good Mate !
thank you
Agree, some other indicators also point the downward pressure, specially in higher time intervals (week).
Well, i think its the dollar who is to go down? Why not?
Brexit, cycles, divergencies etc...
Fantastic analysis mate.
Very nice
Fantastic analysis!
That a great analysis!!!!!!

But let me ask you why you think it happen in Jan/ Feb???
why isnt it drop now?? Why OIL WTI up from 30 to 45??
Do you know who is buying all the physical gold and silver?

Silver is in backwardation.
I am researching about macro economics since 08'

Fed cant do anything about comming crisis nor others too. Why do you think Feb happen??
Trust in $? means trust in Fed?

FED's exit strategy is to store $value to stable the slowing down world as much possible.

When Breixt come, money might go to gold/silver. (physical not contracts)
I hope I am wrong but I hv researched this about

1. US (FED)
2. JP
3. EU
4. Negative interest rate
5. China
6. Saudi
7. Puerto Rico
8. Emergings

we all are in a verge of death zone.
Only stock rally driven is QE and negative interest rate. or series of defualt of soverign (check the debt of every countries lol)
QE is to pay interest : meaning less

1. eitherway, Gold is fundamentally bull the bull.
Check who is buying it all (CH,RUS, even US starts buying hella)
for SILVER (JP is getting shittt ton now)

I love your technical post and psycology. Thank you for that mate!
Today's gold candle is very expensive one. It costs million if not billions to someone...
Gold should be around 1240$ by now.
EurUsd - foredoomed to fall
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
×××Wrong link. I reposted the good picture above with the same text.×××
i closed both of my positions this morning due to the bounce at 1261 - will reenter after the news regarding US production numbers and so on. as u said somebody is manipulating gold price in a big way its completly nuts that we are back at 1275 now...
MoLee nexuz
I exited my gold positions last night after the FOCM members spoken in anticipation that gold would retrace itself today. Looking to reenter again. :D
nexuz MoLee
Dann it replied to the wrong comment - check it lower :)
gold going above 1273 is very creepy today.. i am afraid we might going to see break of 1281 today... bullish momentum is there and gold at critical level..
nexuz newbie2016
:) which entry point you are lookin for - i hope for some near 1280ish. Placed a pending there with stop at about 1290. Unfortunaltly cant trade live due to a meeting at work :(
MoLee nexuz
I doubt the price will increase to 1280, so i'm looking for somewhere 1275/4 for entry when the price reverses.
MoLee you sold at the exact top.
MoLee chartwatchers
Wow.. I didn't realised that. haha
nexuz MoLee
nice one :) i picked up short at the 1270 retest. lets see if it will finaly get crushed
MoLee nexuz
more news coming up at 10pm.. maybe you might finally get the gold crushed.
and Silver looks miserable. It barely can keep up its recent rally
Here we go again !!
thanks mate
It was time...
I think that China manipulates the Gold price. Because China is the biggest gold producer in the world en the second fact is that the Yuan is fixed with the Gold price now.
They have only benefit from a higher gold price. The Yuan is now backed up with gold, the dollar isn't.
I think you are true. These pullups always coming at the morning . ANd the selloff at the USA market times...
wtf, dxy gained 0,61%, eur/usd declined 0,68% and gold is flying to the sky with 0,65%. what a joke. what are your toughts
Someone has not finished with selling gold positions.
As long as all important smart money members are not out they will prop up the price. Once they finished and get out of the way the retailtraders will be left alone with
their long positions.
I hope they dont want to break it above 1280$ first.
ocra chartwatchers
If they sell the price would drop. How can they prop up the price?
Why are they now not shorting?
Its for me diffucult to understand that the most people want long positions.
Once they begin to sell the price will drop fast.

The old saying is sell in may and go away but remember to come back in september.(stocks) ;-))

This time it will be sell in June or July.
saif12 PRO chartwatchers
I fully agree with you, the the big sell will be in June or July. Looking the very similar scenario happens back in July 2014. The dollar started going up, and the gold stayed the same, After 2 months or Dollar rally, the big sale of gold started.
Thanks for the comments! They help in trade and navigate in the behavior of prices
Thank you for the support dizel!
I'm trying my best...
Your efforts are not in vain!!!! You have an amazing and useful approach to the behavior of prices!
Really fascinating read, thank you for taking the time for the thorough analysis. Always following and reading.
great work buddy ...
Thanks for your "Important Question" summary. The past few days have been pushing me to the edge to close my short positions, but I have not given in yet. I am also convinced that smart money is positioning for a big push down in the gold price. Hold tight to these words of wisdom "Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon" - Jesse Livermore
This last addition was brilliantly put...
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