I've found an interesting thing in gold which proves why the bulls will not be right this time...
Gold is moving opposite the US Dollar Index .
I highlighted in orange boxes where gold was normal (rallying with the declining dollar and falling with the strengthening dollar)
Green box where gold was strong: rallying with the strengthening dollar.
Red box where gold is weak.
At the beginning of February gold was acting normally. At the end of February gold was strong.
At the end of April gold became very weak : the dollar was in a panic selling stage and gold was just having a light rally.
At the 3rd of May dollar started a very strong rally and suddenly gold became "strong" again... It's in a fake which is not going to break to the upside. Someone is holding the price in a range/flag to let a few big players to get out. Gold looks strong but it's just a fake power. It was not able to rally at the end of May at the dollar's panic selling. Why would it be strong now? Once the big players are finished selling their gold positions to retail traders and no need to hold gold price a this level : gold is going to fall like a stone. And what will happen if the dollar rallies more before the Brexit? It will have a really scary decline....
Gold should be around 1240$ by now.
This will be very good for the stocks. ANd very good for the dollar.
ANd bad news for gold.
They will let it fall.
"If they sell gold the price would drop. How can they prop up the price? "
If smartmoney starts to sell gold heavily price will drop. No question.
But if they know the direction exactly they have to do 2 things:
hold the price while they can get rid of all the positions in the wrong direction. They let the price fall but before it would collapse they are buying it back. They pull it up and sell it again. Every time their positions in the wrong direction is getting less and less. The retail trader bulls are sucking up their positions. In the meanwhile the news are trying to push everybody into the wrong direction: gold will go to the sky - yes it will in 4 years but not immediately - , there will be no correction etc. If you are short you exactly know how frustrating it is. It looks like they are buying every dip. After some time you fat up close the shorts (this a buy also!!!!) and go long or go to the sidelines.
So before the huge moves very few retail traders are in the good direction. Most of them at the sidelines as lost every money in the whipsaws or in the wrong direction.
Let me clear one thing. The big banks, great funds , Goldman Sachs etc. do exactly know what is happening. They have all the important information . A rate hike is not decided on a FED meeting. They are just discussing the facts that have been decided a month before. Around now a few big players already know what will be the rate decision at the next FED meeting (June 14-15). Smartmoney is getting positioned in the right direction now in the dollar , in gold , in stocks.
Our mission is to find out from the small signs of the charts what is happening. But these people are not stupid. They are building traps for us. So we have to be very-very good to catch the good direction at the good time. That's the reason I play longer term than most of the traders here. The big money is in the big trends - the one was in oil.
As long as all important smart money members are not out they will prop up the price. Once they finished and get out of the way the retailtraders will be left alone with
their long positions.
I hope they dont want to break it above 1280$ first.