XAUUSD: Potential counter trend setup

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Looking at the higher timeframe on Weekly, we are seeing price forming a potential double bottom divergence. Also at a lower timeframe - H4, we do have a divergence as well.

But looking at the price action, there is still no clear sign that price is ready for turn. If you are more conservative, it would be best to wait for at least a price action confirmation ( pin bar or bullish engulfing ) to enter a counter trend long.
well done !

Time to rebound but as you see the SMA 20 Magenta line Strongly Downwards, it is NOT possible to break it, when raise near SMA 20, Another new down trend again. Best way to get long term raising trend, about Feb 2016. I afraid the price will be below USD 900 and don't catch up and hold too long. Week chart ask you to buy over years and Gold find the bottom again and again. To handle this, the way is to take a look on MONTH chart, MONTH Chart seem to be turn soon, but DAY chart still ask for 2-3 more down wave cycle to end down trend.

After finish this long term down trend, there will be a long term raise trend which may beat 1900 previous high or super fast raise to 1300 and then slow for 5-7 years raise again. Well, it may not a good news at all, if people highly believe on Gold, this means there may be WW3 or whatever big war occurs. You may analysis but you may not get benefit on study.
i dont think so, xau cannot over 1196, even 1189,
+1 Reply
yea, you might be right. with USD strengthening, XAU might continue falling.
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