chartwatchers

GOLD - Double top or Bear flag?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
4859 51 55
6 months ago
We are in an interesting situation. Gold             almost never tops at its daily cycle as we are topping today. Gold             almost always throws a curveball to the early shorts.
We couldn't tag 1390-1400$ - the target price counted from the pennant pattern - that is also pulling the price as a magnet...

Though we printed a daily swing today usually the first swing is a false swing and price still has work to do above the last daily high.

So I think that we are going to rally back to 1363. 1363$ is the neckline of the double top (blue line) and also there is the upper trendline of the flag.
When we tag 1363$ gold             has to make a decision to break up from the flag and pop up to 1390$ or continue this decline to the daily cycle low.
My bets are on scenario 1.

All who is long now have to make his own decision to close at 1263$ or wait for the breakout up to 1290$.
6 months ago
Comment: Crazy isn't it?
Gold never tops on the simply way.
Get ready. Decision time...
6 months ago
Comment: We just tested back the Brexit top and the Bear market's weekly trendline....
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6 months ago
Comment: Gliow is right . The 15 min chart is very exact now.
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6 months ago
Comment: Breaking up from the flag would be a nasty trick.
A lot of people bet the farm on this short.
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6 months ago
Comment: We tagged 1263$. But I think the final decision will be at the NFP...
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6 months ago
Trade closed: target reached: I will be waiting NFP at the sidelines.
I'm thinking to put a small buy order a bit above the flag.
And a sell order below the flag.
To be in a position now is a coin toss.
6 months ago
Comment: THEY HAVE CLEANED THE SHORTS !
THE REPORT WILL BE GOOD. GOLD WILL FALL
6 months ago
Comment: I think smartmoney is pulling up now goldprice to get out of the miners at better price.
6 months ago
Comment: Yes.... This is the case. Banks are selling the mining shares. They just needed a false breakout from the flag in gold before the us market open to sell everything at the open to the retail.
Mrsaini
6 months ago
All who is long now have to make his own decision to close at 1363$ or wait for the breakout up to 1390$.
+1 Reply
gLloW PRO
6 months ago
I think we're in a bear flag and not going to break $1,360 again... I think that was a false break. All hourly time frame momentums have broken trend and the Daily is on the brink of breaking it (it will after today). Also, the weekly and monthly momentums are at resistances and likely to turn back... I think we're about to have a full reversal, but time will tell. Here's an idea I did on it yesterday.
Gold Reversal, possibly significant.

+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO gLloW
6 months ago
1361.5 $ now. ...
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gLloW PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Sorry, I generalized. my exact resistance point is 1362.14, which I have as resistance line from the 2011/2012 highs. But the point that I was trying to make was that this might be a reversal coming and gave my reasoning for it.
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gLloW PRO gLloW
6 months ago
Now I"m thinking double top at 1375 as you mentioned. The 15min chart looks primed.
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robus
6 months ago
Hi, Please check 4hr, we just might finish above 20EMA and potential hammer or dragonfly doji. you know what this means.
greetings.
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snapshot

Looke like a re-test after an impulse down. I´m trying a short here
+2 Reply
captain_smollett PRO captain_smollett
6 months ago
Short to breakeven. If it bounces from 1356, I go long
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AlphaDreams PRO
6 months ago
I love trading gold. I'll never go back to equities.
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Nightstar
6 months ago
Not looking good on the 1 hour chart. Retail traders trying to short but will they succeed..?

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On GDX hourly chart I see continuation head and shoulder forming in May and June with target around $32. I was hoping it could rich that target today. Aren't going to happen, maybe tomorrow...
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pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
6 months ago
On daily chart sorry.
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RAMUFF
6 months ago
I think it will not go below $ 1352 in case of no new events or decisions regarding the BREXIT, and as ChartWachers presumed, after a couple of weeks it will raise up but not to $1500, I think the highest level will be $ 1470 for the rest of the year.
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monicaswkk PRO
6 months ago
Arpi, what is your take on NFP tomorrow? How do you think it will impact GOLD and SPX? Thanks.
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chartwatchers PRO monicaswkk
6 months ago
I have to see today's close in both...
I think it will trigger the top in the dollar.
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profprof
6 months ago
at the 1353 dip today there were massive bullish bets in the options market, GLD Jun-2017 144/172 Call Spread Bought 46,000x for $3.17
14 mil dollar bullish bet on gold, was the largest. Brexit uncertainty, EU banks tanking, SPX topping, bond yields low all are bullish for gold
+1 Reply
albium
6 months ago
so i'm guessing we will wait until the next 1-3 hours to go in right?
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Richmand808 PRO
6 months ago
Friday news coming...June reports for US Unemployment Rates and Change in Non Farm Payrolls. That will nudge us off this decision point. To late in the day for me to play either way. Good luck to all. https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar
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pbartashevich PRO Richmand808
6 months ago
Charts suggest that no matter what report will be Gold will have one more quicky leg up to complete patterns before correction.
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
6 months ago
Exactly. To stop out early shorts. To drag in a few more late bulls who can stop out at lower prices.
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Richmand808 PRO pbartashevich
6 months ago
I can't disagree with you pb. I had a dream about an auto plant closing last night...think it was Toyota but for sure here in the USA. Bad jobs report coming?? I never bet on a dream before but maybe I should this time! lol
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Wow 6000+ bid in DUST at $6.19 somebody is betting on good jobs report :)
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AlejandroCL7
6 months ago
Hello! Please check the orange triangle forming!
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/nvhM26YK/
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chartwatchers PRO AlejandroCL7
6 months ago
True, but that's not so important now. If we break down the triangle we also validating the double top as we are breaking to lower lows.
The upper line of the triangle is the same as the bull flag.
So the 2 levels what we watch now is : 1350$ and 1356$.
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isaac312 PRO
6 months ago
Chart Watcher!!!!!!!!

Greece may default on July 20 payment


http://www.globalresearch.ca/who-owns-greeces-debt/5460265
https://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.red
http://imgur.com/h0TfOZK


DB
DB owns tons of greek debt
DB is going to one digit

By the time, xauusd pullback hard~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Buy dip sell high in the sky
+1 Reply
suli isaac312
6 months ago
certainly not, we have our ECB and their modern printing machines
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isaac312 PRO suli
6 months ago
THAT MEANS ANOTHER QE ?

WHY NOT GOLD HAHAHAHAH
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Trendhopper
6 months ago
I don't know why anybody would be shorting or longing at this moment...we saw in the last NFP data last month that Gold flew up from 1215 - 1230 in seconds and wiped out all the shorts , so all eyes on 8.30 am EST....anybody holding a position at that stage is in serious risk of losing...Gold will be heading firmly to 1307 or 1391/1400 depending on the NFP data, between now and then it will just bounce around 1360/1350
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shoks786
6 months ago
Whats the probability of price going back to 1363 before nfp annoncment?
thanks.
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nexuz
6 months ago
i just shorted 1 lot gold at that call with the shorts @ 1358 - i owe u a couple of beers ;)
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nexuz nexuz
6 months ago
jumped out at 1242 around ema 200 in h1 - done for today :)
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2use
6 months ago
I swear you had a bull flag chart for it!
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albium
6 months ago
do we get on the short train now?
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monicaswkk PRO
6 months ago
Full of nuggets now :)
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2use
6 months ago
hahah that bounce
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Trendhopper
6 months ago
Long or short...maybe neither.....maybe we need a bullish inerest rate hike Yellen speech to pop the bubble...whens Yellen up next?
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saint_athur
6 months ago
I think just news spike :) im waiting at 1385 to short
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Shorted 1 lot at 1369. Moved to breakeven
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Trendhopper
6 months ago
You could be right Chartwatcher, in which case this could be a long and smart money dumps around 1390/1400...we saw this in May when smart money kept price artificially high around 1280, then dumped 3 billion dollars worth.....Goold doesn't seem to go down quickly...seems to build up for a few weeks before a short...
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EricBuss Trendhopper
6 months ago
Now the downtrend Begins.. Good luck:)
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pmcllc PRO
6 months ago
Shorts? what shorts? they have been annihilated when it hit the 1377 run last few days!
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pbartashevich PRO pmcllc
6 months ago
Lol. Today's fresh on board shorts :)
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webmiztriz PRO
6 months ago
nice job... :o) what is your downside target? 1306.51 - ? pink line on chart?
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albium
6 months ago
well guys I shorted at 1352. not sure weather to stay in or to get out soon. what do y'all think?
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chartwatchers PRO albium
6 months ago
Hold it we are moving into the DCL as soon as smartmoney got rid of miner shares.
1300 is coming next week
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EnzoCaluzzi chartwatchers
6 months ago
qundi pensi che s&p salira' ? !
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I suspect we might see GDX at $32 (H&S target) before a pull back. Bulls were not scared by this report. Maybe need a word from the Fed.
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Billeci pbartashevich
6 months ago
GDX and GDXJ have been strong today in lieu of the NFP numbers, so it wouldn't surprise me, since these indexes continue to be bought. The overall bullish trend definitely continues to be your friend if you're trading the miners.
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2use
6 months ago
If it goes above 1359, 1360 - thats a bull flag break?
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albium
6 months ago
is this going to keep going up? i thought it would come back down. is it true that this might test back all the way to 1370 before it comes down?
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albium
6 months ago
hey guys you think it would be a great idea to short right now since it has double top?
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