CesaroPelucci

Gold's weekly Bearish triangle (Update 3)

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Goodday traders and welcome to the last weekly update this year,

The last 2 months of this year are going to be awesome. Extreme volatility and volumes are hitting the market like a hammer , and that is no surprise as there is so much at stake right now. For gold I expected to hit 1850 at least before FOMC, but that seems to be a bridge too far. Now we are nearing the big day and bulls might still hit 1850 if Powell sounds concerned about the bad GDP and the high inflation , but odds favor a bearish breakdown for gold after FOMC.

We have FOMC on Wednesday, BoE (possible) rate hike on Thursday and NFP on Friday, so I am expecting a bearish week ahead in goldyland with some bullish retracements. For now I see a retest of 1802 as the main logical retracement point (so bears can get their H&S ) with the bearflag break pointing at a test of the 1700 price. Bears might push for a 1680 break after that with next target 1650 (monthly lower BB).

🥁 Taper Tantrum
Fundamentally tapering is very bearish for gold , but I don't expect the big guys will give it to us that easy. Expect some crazy moves up and down the coming 2 days to confuse everyone before the meltdown. As earlier mentioned, the only bullish scenario that I see, is if Powell shows concerns about the high inflation and the low GDP. So keep your ammunition to yourself until Wednesday to go all the way and collect some crazy pips.

🔮 Cesaro's Crystal Ball
So what to expect this week? Well it's going to be a bumpy ride, that's for sure. $30-$40 candles will be no exception. Bulls have found support near the 50 DSMA, after they got rejected from the 200 DSMA several times. Today the bulls tested it again, and they will keep hammering it until Powell comes for the bearish rescue.

For now I expect a retrace back to mid-1770's with the bulls' next target being 1802 & 1810. There is also a bullflag pointing at 1825, so they might pump it up more than expected. I will refrain from selling until the FOMC Press Conference and will wait for confirmation from Powell to sell this baby all the way to 1700, but we might hit 1650 before year end. That would be an amazing ride down south.

Good luck this week and enjoy the mess! :))

Cheers,
Cesaro