Introduction - Against such a bullish chart, the weekly bar closed "UGLY AF". This obviously implicates a break of 2145 support to 2138 on Monday and perhaps lower on Tuesday. What is not obvious but maybe should be is that BFS trend engine still screaming for a test of 44-year trend line at 2350, at least three if not six times ahead of June 12th FOMC.
Details - Links to previous drafts are below. Will add more soon.
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3/23, 1:12 PM ET Notes: 1) black lines are gate keepers 2) they point at 2100-2110 3) it's obvious bears want lower, daily and weekly bars say this convincingly 4) but it's not obvious bears can break 2138 5) but if they can 2125 should not break 6) in chart above: a) if bears fail to push lower, price will do some version of light blue hi-lights b) which are various versions of DRAFT 5 c) gray route is DRAFT 6-1, now considered unrealistic d) if 2138 is the floor price should follow skinny blue line but 4/10 top should be 2355 or less d) if bears make it to 2125 on Tuesday, price should emulate dark blue hi-light e) which means runaway top on 4/10 can reach 2395+
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7) this path will fill out a giant triangle to June 12th FOMC 8) here's wide view of big channel vs smaller channels:
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9) so see yellow hi-light? 10) it's a version of that same pattern 11) but stretch higher vertically and compressed a bit horizontally 12) this will trigger if eager bears make it to 2125 13) and also why it's unlikely to break 2125
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3/23, 11:07 PM, 3-day picture on bull bear debate:
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a) I keep bring up these two lines as "gate" keepers b) when price does this, makes a stronger bear trend inside a bear trend... c) especially with daily and weekly bars looking that way... d) its hard to say it's break trend immediately e) I'm not saying it can't immediately, but your reason has to be convincing f) otherwise just prove it g) break both those lines to avoid the the 2138 check down h) if not, the higher of the two point at 2138 on Tuesday, and it can get there on Monday i) in the end, this is why classical TA is so effective, it's a simple yes or no
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j) rally from 2223-1995=228 k) why?, bc 2223-2157 is biggest retrace since 1995's first "1-2"" l) 44 year trend line ceiling right now at 2358-228 = 2130 m) let's say it late in mid-May at 2366-228 =2138 n) if floor is 2517, you are saying you going to break the 2355 in April? o) it's already a tough sell at oversold correction from 2125-2395 p) and I have all kinds of technical reasons for that q) just prove the bottom by breaking those two lines r) it is simple, because unless they break, THEY HAVEN'T BROKEN