Thanks to Fibonacci we have many tools helping with everyday analysis. Fibonacci channel is one of them. It is a simple tool which can cover whole swing and when used properly can find a lot of possible places for PA to bounce and create small intraday swings. Educate, practice and trade with Fibonacci cause this math algo is everywhere. In single atom, in plants, in our bodies and minds, in piramids, in our solar system and in galaxies. So it is also present in Forex. Even if forex is played mostly by computer algos those algos were writteln by humans so fibonacci is also in that code. Good luck and have a good weekend.
Thanks mate. Good luck to you as well. I have not heard about Fibonacci channel but will check.
Mario_PLN
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@fhsk2001, its the same as regular fibo. 0, 23, 38, 50, 61, 78, 1, 1.272, 1.618. Most important are 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%. 78.6% is the square root of 61.8% as 127.2% is the square root of 161.8%
Or more correctly 78.6 is square root of 61.8 then convert to percentages.
fhsk2001
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@Mario_PLN, Just one question: We hit twice 1280 spot (100 EMA daily + 0.5 fib.) Do you think we will have one retrace more prior doing down?
Mario_PLN
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@fhsk2001, look at daily candle august 25 which is responsible in my opinion for this support. Look how many contracts were in game on comex when it happened. That day market decided to go higher than previous 2 swings high of 2017. POG is signalling down but i see a gap @ 351 which is not closed so another swing up is an open schema in my opinion. Market will decide and retailers can only follow market and try to get some of those profits. Yesterday closing was also a signal that 281 told byebye but there was too many situations like this one and then market decided to go other way. Lets not forget NK-US fundamental issue and its influence of breaking 1300 month ago. Actually it can happen anytime again.
@Mario_PLN, Thank you Mario. Yes, I am Stoyan from Invest.com. Ilya showed me this website and it is very useful for me. I see you go very deep in the market mechanisms. For me it is difficult to follow it. I just opened buy position at 1281 spot and I am afraid that this will go down. From other point of view I observed in details the motion of the price since the beginning if 2017 and noticed that EMA 100 daily was attacked sometimes several times with retraces from 20$ and more until breaking it. We know that EMA 50 daily was broken after retrace of 20$. For this reason it is reasonable to assume that we should have retrace at least to 1295-1300 area to break 1280 level, but who knows.... I will be glad to discuss with you and Ilya if possible the market situations because you guys are very experienced traders and I can only learn.
Mario_PLN
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@fhsk2001, I have only one year of trading so Im more like little child which is standing on his legs, can do some steps forward but then landing on the floor. Ilia is one of my mentors on inv and it looks like He is much more pro trader/investor. Im trading mostly gold fron april this year finding it is most relate with fibonacci but also it is very complicated due to NK fundamentals. Thanks to this it is much easier for me to learn that fundamentals are very important and I should relay on them on bigger picture. Technicals are for short TF intraday swings only. Like on babypips school they teaching that to be profitable You should take fundamentals+technicals+sentiment. And now on Im trying to digg those 3 in one picture. But it is very hard for my retarded mind to deal with it. More time is needed for that update...
fhsk2001
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@Mario_PLN, I started almost at the same time and tried to start with some larger amounts of capital and had significant losses. I operate now with smaller capital trying to learn, have profit and recover the losses. I operate mostly with gold and silver, because assume that every instrument has its own trend's features, and it's better to know better one or two instruments than to operate with many not knowing them in details. I came into conclusion that swing trading is the best option - selling the top and buying the bottom, because it is less risky, but never succeeded to have enough patience to hold position for a whole swing. Regarding the fundamentals as you say I have noticed that technical factors are most important, but the fundamentals only can catalyze the natural trend. If fundamentals surprise the investors or instill fear in them the catalysis starts and the natural (technical) trend is accelerated. Regarding the present situation many traders believe that the bottom should be at 1230 spot level having significant retraces at 1270, 1260 and 1250 levels. It is possible to have bottom on one of these levels as well. As far as I did succeed to make a swing sell, the best which should I do is to sell on some of the lower highs and hold till the bottom. MACD indicator is very helpful as well. I wish to us smart and non-emotional and successful trading.
Mario_PLN
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@fhsk2001, Yes Stoyan non emotional, but You know how hard it is. We must keep learning and knowledge will pay in future;-)