LastBattle
Short

Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200
Gold             is doomed on the next 3~5 years ahead. A break of descending triangle and the long term uptrend is a dead giveaway.
Many more tears waiting to be shed by the die-hard gold             bugs. We've not seen a true capitulation for more than 2 decades.

Going long via DGLD             (3x inverse gold             ), DUST right now gives perfect opportunity to take advantage of the fall.


4H bearflag, gold isn't strengthening despite a little pullback on dollar
Reply
Agree with you both actually. A lot of times fake breakdowns (or breakouts) provide the best opportunity for a fast move int he other direction. That said, overall, I side with @LastBattle bec I am a diehard trend follower, so I would need sufficient evidence of a reversal actually taking place before making the presumption this recent break was a fakeout.

A more advanced technique for using the SCMR Trends is, if you have a bar that you know is a focal point for trading, such as a pivot, confirmed reversal, etc, is watch if price moves outside the signal bar, then on a lower timeframe changes trend and comes back in. This is a highly effective way to trade such a fakeout, but requires more precision and finesse.
+1 Reply
LastBattle SPYderCrusher
Yeah, I'm keeping a lookout at the shorter timeframe :)

Bought into DUST for this. There are lots of money on the tables waiting, especially on the mining sector in terms of short position.
Those index have pretty much went back to the pre-gold collapse price, another $200 drop in price would make them unprofitable. Since the spot price futures is pretty much limited to 10~20% fall.
+1 Reply
OTE sweet spot noted.
Reply
Actually, I disagree. What you have here is a ascending wedge. It normally does go down from here, but the fundamentals are against that in the long term. Any one of several black swan events could happen and trigger a higher price. All you need is one domino to fall and you will get many more. That means higher gold in the end.
+1 Reply
LastBattle richard.shoemake
Its always great to hear other perspective.
but I still prefer to go by what's happening right now (the trend, technical), rather than predicting future events.

If should there be such an event, stops will be in place. :)
+1 Reply
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