2lalit
Short

Probably It Will Take Less Than 4 Steps Again

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
156 0 4
In my view gold             is still in a bearish condition. Regardless of whether my cycle calculation is correct or not, but for me as long as it is closer to the result of the calculation it can be categorized correctly.

I have calculated the length of the cycle of bear market that occurred from 2011 high ($ 1,920) to the 2013 low ($ 1,180) by using 0.62 golden ratio, there is bull market following the June 2013 Low will expire in July 2014 High, where the calculation is as follows:

The next cycle after 2013 Low
((June 2013 - September 2011) * 0.62 + June 2013) = July 2014 High

Let's just say the result is true, then I state that $1,345 is a high price level in July 2014 High.

Now I am trying to connect it with the formation that is formed when prices approach the price level. Formation, there seen a Falling Knife that can be categorized as a bullish sign. but the movement can only move up @ $1,322, can not reach its peak at $1,345, it’s just different $23.

from $1,322, Gold             then fall back to $1,257 closer to $1,240 Jun 2014 Low, and price moves under the Symmetrical Triangle Apex and a Falling Knife (if I pull the line correctly) and even under DMA50 and DMA200.

Well, now we assume that the $1,240 - $1,257 have a tendency forming a unbalance double bottom. For me a double bottom will not test It peak @ $1.322 if price movement failed to pass $1,315 (although sometimes moving for test but turned again below $1,315, such as double bottom $1,180 - $1,178 can penetrate $1,345 but turned back and move below $1,345 after not being able to test $1,435 after reaching $1,392.).

Last look at the formation of the Inverse Symmetrical Triangle of my previous post entitled "Does the Double Top Reversal Will Bring More Gold             Decline?". The current price after breakout $1,260 may be will be faced with a possible test $1,310.

"Probably It Will Take Less Than 4 Steps Again"
1. To test the upper range of Inverse Symmetrical Triangle @ $1,310
2. To test double bottom peak @ $1,322
3. To test $1,345 that represented by 2nd handle

In my view, the current price movement still has a chance to fall back and re-test $1,240, if price is consistent move below $1,275/80 which is the tendency for the formation to form a integrity of Unbalance Double Top $1,392 - $1,345.


We will see for the next few days, whether gold             is locked @ $1,305 (+-$5) or not.

Happy Weekend For All of You


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