The BIG FAT SHORT ->1295->1275->1200->1170->1130->1050
We are right at the 6-year-old-long-term-Downtrendline (log-scale) and tried to break it; First it fail, yesterday the retest, and it failed again with a lower High (montly close);
Now we have reasons:
PATTERNS for the Trendchange
(look at smaller timeframes and zoomed charts below the idea)
STRONG RESISTANCE (between 1320-1330 as it is yearly high, 6years-downtrendline on monthly and weekly)
SLIDING TOP (compare with the beginning of the Downtrend in April!;
ABC(D) CORRECTION WAVE (already started; first Low (A or B) was at Breakoutpoint to retest 3 Triple Top Breakout!)
BEARISH- CYPHER PATTERN (Short-Term; with sliding Top; with D High we had yesterday)
BULLISH - BAT PATTERN (mid-term, first Low was on last friday fat finger; sliding top; second Low will be around Fat fingers low)
FALLING STAR on daily; on the second day a multi month breakout (from 2016-2017s trendline) should not have this Doji
RSI OVERBOUGHT on daily,
falling RSI and MACD-Level on hourly
FUNDAMENTALS
US-DATA was GOOD this week (GDP much better; ADP much better, CPC as expected; jobclaims as expected)
Gold was driven by FAT KIM in the last week
FED wants to reduce balance sheets as soon as possible; reason against: inflation is too low!? but maybe another raise of rate still in this year!?
XAG at its Downtrendline from midst of last year
DXY has changed direction again (on daily huge rsi-differgence, stopped 30pip below 2,5year horizontal-support and made V-Revearsal with morning-star on daily). reason against: Trump wants to have a cheaper Dollar and needs it for his economic reform
US10Y at daily bottom-support around 2.12
USDJPY made revearsal at daily-bottom-support at 108.2 (compared to Gold is JPY too low; Gold is around 20USD too high after the BO of 1295); MACD signals upmove on daily! back in uptrendchannel since April 2017; BOJ nicely thrown money into the market to dumb their currency;
DJI, SPX500, DAX back on track UP; VIX down (summer holidays are nearly over, so should climb up more)
EURUSD made its high at 1,207 with a falling star; RSI divergence on daily; if it will go up more draghi will dumb it
XAUXAG about to rise as it stays at a support-line;
all other commodies did not climb with gold (compare DBC)
Gold/SILVER always falls down till the end of the year, seasonal reasons
NFP ?????? (was good the last times, but in august not so good in the last years, but US-Data signalising good data...!?)
hypothetic Theories
JACKSON HOLE was known by insiders; that the reason why Gold fall down BEFORE Yellens Speechs and climbed up much
Rockets by FAT KIM were not planned
yesterday was Short-Squeeze (big volume up, low volume down)
SENTIMENT is too BULLISH (everyone expects new highs at around 1340 or above)
Entry1:$1324
Entry2: when ever you want
Tp1: $1295
Tp2: $1275
TP3-4-5-6-7-8: read headline!
SL: last high at 1326, if broken up; this whole idea is mostly invalid!
Now we have reasons:
PATTERNS for the Trendchange
(look at smaller timeframes and zoomed charts below the idea)
STRONG RESISTANCE (between 1320-1330 as it is yearly high, 6years-downtrendline on monthly and weekly)
SLIDING TOP (compare with the beginning of the Downtrend in April!;
ABC(D) CORRECTION WAVE (already started; first Low (A or B) was at Breakoutpoint to retest 3 Triple Top Breakout!)
BEARISH- CYPHER PATTERN (Short-Term; with sliding Top; with D High we had yesterday)
BULLISH - BAT PATTERN (mid-term, first Low was on last friday fat finger; sliding top; second Low will be around Fat fingers low)
FALLING STAR on daily; on the second day a multi month breakout (from 2016-2017s trendline) should not have this Doji
RSI OVERBOUGHT on daily,
falling RSI and MACD-Level on hourly
FUNDAMENTALS
US-DATA was GOOD this week (GDP much better; ADP much better, CPC as expected; jobclaims as expected)
Gold was driven by FAT KIM in the last week
FED wants to reduce balance sheets as soon as possible; reason against: inflation is too low!? but maybe another raise of rate still in this year!?
XAG at its Downtrendline from midst of last year
DXY has changed direction again (on daily huge rsi-differgence, stopped 30pip below 2,5year horizontal-support and made V-Revearsal with morning-star on daily). reason against: Trump wants to have a cheaper Dollar and needs it for his economic reform
US10Y at daily bottom-support around 2.12
USDJPY made revearsal at daily-bottom-support at 108.2 (compared to Gold is JPY too low; Gold is around 20USD too high after the BO of 1295); MACD signals upmove on daily! back in uptrendchannel since April 2017; BOJ nicely thrown money into the market to dumb their currency;
DJI, SPX500, DAX back on track UP; VIX down (summer holidays are nearly over, so should climb up more)
EURUSD made its high at 1,207 with a falling star; RSI divergence on daily; if it will go up more draghi will dumb it
XAUXAG about to rise as it stays at a support-line;
all other commodies did not climb with gold (compare DBC)
Gold/SILVER always falls down till the end of the year, seasonal reasons
NFP ?????? (was good the last times, but in august not so good in the last years, but US-Data signalising good data...!?)
hypothetic Theories
JACKSON HOLE was known by insiders; that the reason why Gold fall down BEFORE Yellens Speechs and climbed up much
Rockets by FAT KIM were not planned
yesterday was Short-Squeeze (big volume up, low volume down)
SENTIMENT is too BULLISH (everyone expects new highs at around 1340 or above)
Entry1:$1324
Entry2: when ever you want
Tp1: $1295
Tp2: $1275
TP3-4-5-6-7-8: read headline!
SL: last high at 1326, if broken up; this whole idea is mostly invalid!
Comment:
smaller Timeframe
Comment:
zommed again:
Trade active:
poor data but bull trap!
Comment:
has to break 1317 but DXY and UJ looking good so far on 15min
yields skyrocking... hourly looks nice on UJ and Gold
yields skyrocking... hourly looks nice on UJ and Gold