chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Till last bear standing

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
6413 47 84
5 months ago
After breaking out from the pennant gold             had a strong rally on the hourly chart. We couldn't break below the 10 EMA for days.
Yesterday night (GMT) we tested the 50 EMA on the hourly chart. A bear flag was forming. This afternoon the bear flag break out. It seemed a false breakout as price almost immediatelIy drop back into the flag. In the next hour we turned up again from the 50 EMA.

One could go long from here with a stop below the 50 EMA (hourly chart) .
I think this night the latest price will break above the Brexit high and we will be heading to 1400$.

When price breaks 1358$ suddenly everybody wants to be on board with the bull and every bear want to close the rest of the shorts.
The rally will last till last bear standing.
5 months ago
Comment: Brexit high broken.
5 months ago
Comment: Watch how the 10 EMA is supporting the trend again.
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Don't forget : till last bear standing.
Just a bull flag again:
snapshot
4 months ago
Comment: Trendline crawling...
snapshot
4 months ago
Comment: When volume comes in going to break up
4 months ago
Comment: We are not ready yet...
snapshot
4 months ago
Comment: WHat is sure now that we are going to test the neckline / upper trendline of the flag at 1363$.
snapshot
4 months ago
Comment: At 1363 price will decide to break up (1) to 1390 or come down (2) into the DCL
pmcllc PRO
5 months ago
yup it looks like 1400 coming
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rohithisgood
5 months ago
Even though there won't be a rate hike I think the gold price will drop temporarily as the US economy data is released over the next few days this week. Watch the dates in the calendar below.
Assuming of-course that the reports won't be bad. I sold my gold stocks today and will wait until Friday close to buy back.

http://www.marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic

Gold is too bullish, no one can stop it (except US rate hike which won't happen), so any drop in price will be temporary (less than a week)
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Can anyone explain me what kind of major crisis I am missing here? Or gold and bonds are bullish only on anticipation of central banks printing. For fed i don't see how they can turn from 2 + 3 + 3 hikes to "let's print" within one month or even couple weeks. I think we will hear soon that rate hike is still on a table, especially if tomorrow's adp report and Friday reports are ok. That would be a cold shower on gold lovers who have no breaks anymore. That is the time to stop gold and punish.
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rohithisgood pbartashevich
5 months ago
lol... I don't see a major crisis either, but the sentiment on Gold has changed pushing the price up. There will be a small temporary drop as I don't think USA economy is bad or at least it will do a great job at hiding the secrets a little longer, while not making it obvious like China revising its GDP calculations to hide their slowing economy growth. I don't consider Brexit a MAJOR crisis until they sign article 50 and Puerto Rico's Debt Default is too small to justify the extremely bullish run for Gold. Seriously we saw NUGT go up by 55% since Brexit which is crazy. I will remain on the bullish side with no position currently as I am worried about positive USA economy reports as well.

If feds really decide to do a rate hike that would be a shock to the whole world. There is a very very low chance that they will do a hike as per most analysts, but most analysts are not good at predicting (Brexit is a good example).
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pbartashevich PRO rohithisgood
5 months ago
Having bond yields so low actually allows to hike rate with almost no pain. Plus it will send the message to the world that everything is fine and possibly calm markets down. Doing nothing worsens panic to my opinion and making US markets suspicious. I think, Yellen canceled that after brexit conference for a reason to buy time and get markets back up to pre-brexit levels. Looks like she wanted to keep talking rate hike but couldn't at that time. Now she can. I still think the Fed's course (or cycle :) ) is slowly hiking rates to shift from "accommodative" monetary policy to "neutral". Everything is ready for that: Bond yields low, US markets up, US housing market is OK, banks need higher rates to make more money and support banking sector, investors are heavy in cash right now. All we need is good jobs report to support Fed's "believe" in "transitionary" bad May's jobs report. I think it is 50% that they go hawkish or even hike rate. Buying gold at these levels after such huge run at record highs in COT is nuts.
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Paul-FXTC PRO
5 months ago
Same here
Posible Long Trade On Gold
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chartwatchers PRO Paul-FXTC
5 months ago
B option is invalid. We are too late in the daily cycle for that scenario.
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val_trader
5 months ago
I had some doubts to go long, I went short, but chartwatchers was right again ! Poor me :(
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traderzaius
5 months ago
I feel a daily cycle top is due. Tread carefully.
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pmcllc PRO
5 months ago
looks like bears have been annihilated
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Let's see where we close today.
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pmcllc PRO pbartashevich
5 months ago
what do you mean?
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pbartashevich PRO pmcllc
5 months ago
I am still bearish on Gold and want to see it close below $1360. Below multi-year down trend line going from 2011, which keep long term bear market view alive and a chance for huge correction. This week might be a turning point for gold. Lots of Fed related data and talks. I don't hold any positions in Gold for now but want to short it soon.
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pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
5 months ago
As long as we below that downtrend line there is a chance to go all the way back to $1050 place double bottom and then rise for real. The chance is slim though. I mean the amount of Gold purchased right now the sudden change in sentiment can crash it big time. So buying now ahead of Fed data is suicidal. I would half long positions at least now, anyway we are not going any much higher from here.
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pmcllc PRO pbartashevich
5 months ago
people are betting toward 1380-89 level then go short...who knows...
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Notyour pbartashevich
5 months ago
Can be. Im long DUST. GDX is way overbought
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bucgerry pbartashevich
5 months ago
Absolutely, the $1050 area seems likely over the next few months.
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RAMUFF pbartashevich
4 months ago
Dont think will plunge to that level even in the long term, The Moving Average is upward on the daily, weekly and monthly charts
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Silver Open Interest from Tuesday to Tuesday (yesterday) dropped by -49 while price rose $2+. Looks like pure short squeeze rally but no new money came into silver market. All money went to Gold :)
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Loii
5 months ago
$1400, good to have you on board the bull train
PERFECT CLONE GOLD BULL
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albium
5 months ago
could we still buy right now and be on the bull train?
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chartwatchers PRO albium
5 months ago
It's to late. 2-3 days and we are topping. Wait for the daily cycle low.
It's 1-2 weeks from now. We will go up to 1500$.
I will post when it's starting.
+1 Reply
albium chartwatchers
5 months ago
Awesome thanks!
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rere04 chartwatchers
5 months ago
Maybe you can point to some resources online regarding market/commodity/equity cycles...? New to trading.
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epalazzo
5 months ago
Great. Flags again. Same-o-same-o. That's what we like.
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courageousone
5 months ago
Chartwatchers, are we approaching a Dust moment in the very near future? If gold tops out we could be in for a big correction. Thanks.
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Ferry22
5 months ago
This is a rally of FOMO players. Smart money is selling. Wait until USA injection money saves the economy and this overvalued price retraces to 1300.
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NT95
4 months ago
Hello chartwatchers what dou you think is a good level to enter now on gold? to be in the train to 1500$?
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chartwatchers PRO NT95
4 months ago
Now its too late. Wait till the daily cycle low. 5-10 days from now. You will get better price
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NT95 chartwatchers
4 months ago
Ok thank you, maybe retesting 1360?
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rubidus1 NT95
4 months ago
interesting
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Tampax
4 months ago
dont fallow this trader, ive seen many posts of him and most of them are rong, remember he shorted at 1240 and many ppl got busted fallowing him
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chartwatchers PRO Tampax
4 months ago
If everything is "rong" why to be here?!
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Tampax chartwatchers
4 months ago
not saying ur rong all the time, but you seem to only care about technicals wich are usless these days, you dont care anything about all other EU markets wich affects gold hard, right now all EU indexes like germany and spanish are bullish and gold is clearly heading below 50s, be realistic its a not streight line up, ppl should understand this before fallowing ur trades.
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GoldBug777 Tampax
4 months ago
Maybe learn to spell and we will listen to you?
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vikingaskepp Tampax
4 months ago
Hello Tampax!

Hopefully everyone reading knows that this is not an exact science, and that speculating is a risky business, that you shouldn't speculate with borrowed money (in my opinion), or your rent- and food money. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought chartwatchers was a technical analyst?

I find it rude to recommend people not to follow, in his own account. Maybe if you think you have a better trade idea, or an interesting angle, you could try and share it in a better way.

Analysts are wrong about the markets all the time, (unless they are extremely vague), and if they share more of their ideas they are wrong more often. I think it is interesting to follow, not only for the main idea, but also for the comments and updates.

Karin
+1 Reply
epalazzo
4 months ago
Licking the upper trendline from below and slowly crossing and breaking it upwards, just like in 2 previous cases.
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kizly
4 months ago
I agree with you, What do you think about daytrade with DUST and JDUST? Both GDX and GDXJ are completly overbought?
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chartwatchers PRO kizly
4 months ago
Gold needs to top before DUST and JDST can get a little rally.
1 or 2 days and gold will top. Maybe today maybe at the job report.
We just need one spike up to 1390-1400 in gold and most of the bulls will take profit and bears will be stopped out.
SMartmoney will exit the miners at that point. And the decline starts.
Maybe you have to position today in DUST
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
4 months ago
We should break out the flag in gold today and that could produce a capitulation in DUST.
I think we are very very close.
+1 Reply
kizly chartwatchers
4 months ago
Thanks a lot for your opinion and fast reply!
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