Gold initially surged after softer U.S. inflation data, but buyers are now facing a critical test beneath a major descending trendline resistance.
📊 Economic Update
Yesterday's PPI data came in softer than market expectations, reinforcing the narrative that inflation pressures continue to cool.
PPI m/m: Lower than forecast
Core PPI: Softer than expected
Jobless Claims: Slightly higher
This combination weakened the USD and Treasury yields during the initial reaction, allowing Gold to stage a sharp relief rally from the weekly lows.
However, the market is now entering the second phase: Can buyers sustain momentum, or was this simply a liquidity-driven short squeeze?
Technical Analysis (H1)
The broader structure remains bearish despite the recent recovery.
Price exploded from the 4,080 demand zone and swept short-side liquidity before reaching the descending trendline and supply area around 4,230.
The current reaction suggests buyers are losing momentum beneath resistance.
Key Levels
🔹 Resistance Zone: 4,230
🔹 Pivot Resistance: 4,170
🔹 Intraday Support: 4,131
🔹 Demand / Liquidity Zone: 4,080
IF–THEN Scenario
✅ Bullish Case
If Gold breaks and closes above 4,230, the recovery structure strengthens and buyers could target higher discount-to-premium rebalancing zones.
❌ Bearish Case (Preferred)
If price remains below the trendline and fails to reclaim 4,230, sellers may re-enter aggressively.
A rejection below 4,170 would expose 4,131 first, followed by a potential liquidity sweep back into the 4,080 demand zone.
📊 Economic Update
Yesterday's PPI data came in softer than market expectations, reinforcing the narrative that inflation pressures continue to cool.
PPI m/m: Lower than forecast
Core PPI: Softer than expected
Jobless Claims: Slightly higher
This combination weakened the USD and Treasury yields during the initial reaction, allowing Gold to stage a sharp relief rally from the weekly lows.
However, the market is now entering the second phase: Can buyers sustain momentum, or was this simply a liquidity-driven short squeeze?
Technical Analysis (H1)
The broader structure remains bearish despite the recent recovery.
Price exploded from the 4,080 demand zone and swept short-side liquidity before reaching the descending trendline and supply area around 4,230.
The current reaction suggests buyers are losing momentum beneath resistance.
Key Levels
🔹 Resistance Zone: 4,230
🔹 Pivot Resistance: 4,170
🔹 Intraday Support: 4,131
🔹 Demand / Liquidity Zone: 4,080
IF–THEN Scenario
✅ Bullish Case
If Gold breaks and closes above 4,230, the recovery structure strengthens and buyers could target higher discount-to-premium rebalancing zones.
❌ Bearish Case (Preferred)
If price remains below the trendline and fails to reclaim 4,230, sellers may re-enter aggressively.
A rejection below 4,170 would expose 4,131 first, followed by a potential liquidity sweep back into the 4,080 demand zone.
Note
Gold is sideways within the 4245 and 4171 range. Pay attention to weekend news; the price will break strongly on Monday. Wait for a retest before taking a safe position.
Trade active
The price touched the resistance zone twice and then fell both times. Note that if it breaks this zone a third time, the plan will be cancelled.
Trade closed manually
The price has broken out of the range above 4245 and reached the 432x zone; the latest plan will be updated below.
Market Structure • Liquidity • Smart Money Concepts
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Market Structure • Liquidity • Smart Money Concepts
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Daily Gold Outlooks | Educational Content | Trading Insights
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.