Here are the very important things to watch:
Swings and are CLEAR identifiable.
But one has to keep both in context.
When it rains, it can rain drop by drop, or it can pour like hell.
You can drive a care, or you can race with your car.
...see what I mean? It's all about context.
To eliminate guesswork in the charts, a nice trick is to go higher in timeframes, or load much less data.
If I would load only 5 years of data, instead of 10, it would be a much clearer picture what the real trend is.
Please don't take this as the only truth in the world, I don't mean it like that.
I just share my years of learning, knowledge and facts I have gained over time.
So, it's just my framework, how I learned from the greatest Chartist I know in the world.
Within many years of work, I was able to grasp what he hammered me in my head...it took a long time for me, I'm slow, but happy now ;-)
Going perfectly as decribed by the nature of the swings.
Down down down we go, until the big swing is taken out.
Observe and learn.
TradingView Blog: http://www.forktrading.com/tradingview-blog