Short answer: Gold
In this study an attempt is made to understand if precious metals offer increased protection to your purchasing power over Bitcoin. Predicting what is going to happen tomorrow or next week if that’s what you’re after, look elsewhere. The study is an attempt to understand which is the better asset to hold for the months ahead to protect ones purchasing power. After some hours of study I’m in no doubt. If you’re seeking to protect purchasing power, Bitcoin is not the answer. No mater what Michael Saylor says and I’m no Peter Schiff fan to be clear, but Bitcoin is facing some serious headwinds when compared with Gold.
To repeat, this is not an attempt to suggest Bitcoin is going to collapse through the floor come Monday morning, perhaps the dollar will, who knows. Whatever transpires the charts are suggesting the shiny metal will do a better job protecting your wealth. This is also true for Silver.
The TA:
On the above 10-day chart gold has dropped 99.99999% from a ratio of 712 to 0.046. There is now increasing evidence gold is about to reclaim some of that lost ground. Which is?
1) A ‘incredible buy’ signal. Essentially, on this time frame, the indicator is measuring probability versus risk. The probability of an upside move is greater than 90%.
2) Regular bullish divergence. Lots of it. Nine oscillators including MACD are printing bullish divergence. Incredible.
3) Trend reversal. Possibly the most important point. RSI has been printing lower highs since March 2020. The trend has now reversed.
4) Volume. There’s no question, the volume entering the spot market is the largest since mid-2013.
Is it possible this ratio is meaningless and Bitcoin continues taking value from gold? Absolutely.
Is it probable? No.
What does this all mean in dollar terms? Now that’s a great question.
What are your thoughts? Would love to know!
Ww
In this study an attempt is made to understand if precious metals offer increased protection to your purchasing power over Bitcoin. Predicting what is going to happen tomorrow or next week if that’s what you’re after, look elsewhere. The study is an attempt to understand which is the better asset to hold for the months ahead to protect ones purchasing power. After some hours of study I’m in no doubt. If you’re seeking to protect purchasing power, Bitcoin is not the answer. No mater what Michael Saylor says and I’m no Peter Schiff fan to be clear, but Bitcoin is facing some serious headwinds when compared with Gold.
To repeat, this is not an attempt to suggest Bitcoin is going to collapse through the floor come Monday morning, perhaps the dollar will, who knows. Whatever transpires the charts are suggesting the shiny metal will do a better job protecting your wealth. This is also true for Silver.
The TA:
On the above 10-day chart gold has dropped 99.99999% from a ratio of 712 to 0.046. There is now increasing evidence gold is about to reclaim some of that lost ground. Which is?
1) A ‘incredible buy’ signal. Essentially, on this time frame, the indicator is measuring probability versus risk. The probability of an upside move is greater than 90%.
2) Regular bullish divergence. Lots of it. Nine oscillators including MACD are printing bullish divergence. Incredible.
3) Trend reversal. Possibly the most important point. RSI has been printing lower highs since March 2020. The trend has now reversed.
4) Volume. There’s no question, the volume entering the spot market is the largest since mid-2013.
Is it possible this ratio is meaningless and Bitcoin continues taking value from gold? Absolutely.
Is it probable? No.
What does this all mean in dollar terms? Now that’s a great question.
What are your thoughts? Would love to know!
Ww
Comment:
Gold (although bearish against dollar near term) continues break up and ahead with Bitcoin. On the 2-day chart:
1) A life cross / golden cross is printed. i.e. 50-day SMA (blue) crosses up and over the 200-day SMA (red) AND price action is above the 200-day SMA.
2) Price action broke up and through the 21-week SMA (Green line).
Whichever way you cut it the macro picture for Bitcoin is fantastically bearish, if it wasn't bearish enough already.
Excepting a re-test of the 21-week SMA, so Bitcoin may see upward pressure soon. However the whole picture is beyond ugly. Very ugly. Am really surprised by this. What on earth is about to happen? Another stable coin failure? Saylor capitulates?
Ideas welcomed! I'm fresh out...
1) A life cross / golden cross is printed. i.e. 50-day SMA (blue) crosses up and over the 200-day SMA (red) AND price action is above the 200-day SMA.
2) Price action broke up and through the 21-week SMA (Green line).
Whichever way you cut it the macro picture for Bitcoin is fantastically bearish, if it wasn't bearish enough already.
Excepting a re-test of the 21-week SMA, so Bitcoin may see upward pressure soon. However the whole picture is beyond ugly. Very ugly. Am really surprised by this. What on earth is about to happen? Another stable coin failure? Saylor capitulates?
Ideas welcomed! I'm fresh out...
Comment:
Since this post was made, Gold is absolutely thrashing Bitcoin. Now you know why I write 'don't ignore' on the incredible signals.
RSI is very overbought at the moment on the 10-day chart as is Stochastic RSI (little green area), sure more up could occur, but in my opinion this would be an excellent moment to rotate out of Gold back into BTC.
RSI is very overbought at the moment on the 10-day chart as is Stochastic RSI (little green area), sure more up could occur, but in my opinion this would be an excellent moment to rotate out of Gold back into BTC.
Trade closed manually:
Massive gain against Bitcoin... time to rotate out of gold back into Bitcoin for remaining half of the year.
Gold has just printed the largest 6-month Gravestone DOJI candle ever in chart data available on trading view, since 1954.
Expect gold to crash hard against the dollar to <$1k levels.
I can already hear the gold bugs, you're wrong! Inflation is out of control. Yes, it is. But that's not what is happening for the remainder of the year. Merchants have overstock and no one is buying as rates rise. Lumber is stocked to the ceilings as house builders are discounting unfinished builds.. get your popcorn ready.
We're about to move straight into a slump.
Gold has just printed the largest 6-month Gravestone DOJI candle ever in chart data available on trading view, since 1954.
Expect gold to crash hard against the dollar to <$1k levels.
I can already hear the gold bugs, you're wrong! Inflation is out of control. Yes, it is. But that's not what is happening for the remainder of the year. Merchants have overstock and no one is buying as rates rise. Lumber is stocked to the ceilings as house builders are discounting unfinished builds.. get your popcorn ready.
We're about to move straight into a slump.
Comment:
Early last year I asked the question which was the better hold for 2022, Gold or Bitcoin? Gold.
The same question for 2023. Bitcoin. 2023 is the the year Bitcoin will shine.
On the 4-day chart below there is a strong bearish divergence following a the sell signal.
In summary, 2023: Short Gold / Long Bitcoin.
Ww
4-day chart
The same question for 2023. Bitcoin. 2023 is the the year Bitcoin will shine.
On the 4-day chart below there is a strong bearish divergence following a the sell signal.
In summary, 2023: Short Gold / Long Bitcoin.
Ww
4-day chart
BTC
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Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
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Weblink: www.patreon.com/withoutworries
Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
1) Gold is bearish against the dollar at this moment. A gravestone DOJI was printed on the 2-month chart. Typically such signals have resulted in a 30% correction.
2) Latterly the Gold / BTC pair is very bullish as shown on the 5-day chart below.
Whatever is about to happen, should resistance break (the orange line) then Bitcoin in dollar terms would be around $12-13k, as unbelievable as that sounds.
Buckle up.