chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - "You know it's a bull market!"

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
7174 117 86
4 months ago
Gold             is clearly in a bull market. I'm not touching the position just watching my winners run.
This week we are going to break above 1376$.
Most of you know I'm a big Jesse Livermore fan. This part is my favorite of the book of his life written by Edwin LeFevre.

"There was as much to learn from partial victory as from defeat.
For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and I had backed
my opinion by buying stocks . An advance followed, as I had clearly foreseen. So far, all
very well. But what else did I do? Why, I listened to the elder statesmen and curbed my
youthful impetuousness. I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully,
conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back
your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for
I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock go
kiting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my
conservative pocket. They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don't. But
neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.
Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars I made two thousand. That was what
my conservatism did for me.
(...)
In Fullerton's there were the usual crowd. All grades! Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never
bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others.
He did not seem very keen to get tips that is, he never asked the talkers what they'd
heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the
tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again when the tip turned out
O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he
followed it or let it slide by. It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and
could swing quite a line. But he wasn't donating much to the firm in the way of
commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they
nicknamed him Turkey
behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit
of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.
The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay
the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend
of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock . They would tell him
what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But
whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap's answer was always the
same.
Time and again I heard him say, "Well, this is a bull market, you know!" as though he
were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accidentinsurance
policy.
What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my
own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the
general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He
had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human
weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught
him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that
when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a
bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual
fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up
the entire market and its trend.

- Reminiscences of a Stock Operator-
4 months ago
Comment: I'm adding to my position at this point (1257-1258$)
4 months ago
Comment: 1357-1358... Sorry.
4 months ago
Comment: Surprise to the upside.
Enjoy the show.
You know it's a bull market.
4 months ago
Comment: This is the opportunity to enter a long or add the position.
Rocketman PRO
4 months ago
nice...
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investment6300
4 months ago
Great snippet!! Just realised the same last month. Tanks for sharing and like always your timing is great!!
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shinsky
4 months ago
Riding this bull all the way!
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oilyprata
4 months ago
love the snippet! thank you for sharing!
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ArtFly
4 months ago
Now we know....
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natkamon2504
4 months ago
Very nice sir . where is tp pls.?
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chartwatchers TOP natkamon2504
4 months ago
1450? We will see when we get there.
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ArtFly
4 months ago
Do not you think that EUR / USD can bounceed from 1.1250 level and it could lead to a greater correction in gold and silver ?
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chartwatchers TOP ArtFly
4 months ago
No. USD is getting killed. They've printed too much money. And now the FED doesn't want a strong dollar either.
They are printing and saying the strong dollar is enemy of the economy.
What do you think will happen ? DXY rally above 100 ?
This spring-summer was the time when the inflation started in the world.
Trump/Clinton has to face with a Carter type of inflation in 2020-21.
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kidbroge chartwatchers
4 months ago
Livermore is quite an inspiration. He lost more than he won and still came out on top. I can relate to this guy. Keep on truckin' baby.
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ja.piotr.bor chartwatchers
4 months ago
Why is the USD getting killed ? It's getting below 90 DX Dollar index ? Euro is going to take over USD again ?
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Nightstar ja.piotr.bor
4 months ago
If you look right above, you'll find the answer to your question. It's common sense.
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ja.piotr.bor Nightstar
4 months ago
I'm so tupid and dont see this answer. Tell me wise guy.
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Nickelor PRO ja.piotr.bor
4 months ago
Look at intermarket analysis. generally when commodities start to go up, U$ down.
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ja.piotr.bor Nickelor
4 months ago
I don't want the answer with commodities, I know it. But I talk about euro and dollar only. Now crude is still being killed.
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ArtFly chartwatchers
4 months ago
EURUSD PULL BACK?
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ArtFly
4 months ago
correction: level 1.1280
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liuzhiji8888
4 months ago
Nice story, thanks for sharing.
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pmcllc PRO
4 months ago
ok so what's the plan?
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bertcoin PRO
4 months ago
Time to head to the library to find that book. Thanks! Read it to my aging mother (grand daughter of a successful stock broker in Canada pre-great depression) and brought back memories for her.... Looks like it is heading down to the fib 50 now....
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Noobsnoot
4 months ago
do you think xauusd will anyway rebound to somewhere in 1340ish before it goes up again?
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chartwatchers TOP Noobsnoot
4 months ago
No. We will break 1376 soon.
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Quant chartwatchers
4 months ago
thanks for the input. its not if your fight or wrong, but how much you make when your right and how little you lose when you are wrong-Soros. My view you were wrong on gold 3 months ago, now right. Well done on not staying wrong. my view the same holds on your view on spx. per my post on your spx chart. Trade well, have a good and profitable session.
snapshot
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purpurato59 PRO chartwatchers
4 months ago
Errare humanum est, perseverare autem diabolicum
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purpurato59 PRO Noobsnoot
4 months ago
I hope you learned the lesson: trust your own analysis.
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Arthur_USD PRO
4 months ago
Loved the quote :)
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Neptun07 PRO
4 months ago
How do you think the Friday non-Farm payroll will affect the gold?
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Mannnassser
4 months ago
Sir: is 1375 a correction level ?
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Tenbears1979
4 months ago
Interesting action in JNUG today - +1% on the day for gold and the junior miners are down for the day. Either someone knows something or it's just normal profit taking after a 20% move.
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Billeci Tenbears1979
4 months ago
Agreed! JDST showed strength today and JNUG was weak relative to the way they've been correlating to gold's ebb and flow.
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andrej123456
4 months ago
would i close it after one hour from now ??
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andrej123456 andrej123456
4 months ago
just check the horrifying red 1minute candle. Is it ok ?
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purpurato59 PRO
4 months ago
Getting in now is not a good idea, the market is getting overbought. If you were already in, it's good to keep it, otherwise just wait, because there will be greater opportunities later when the correction comes, that's where the big money lies, that's what Mr Livermore meant.
By the way, one of the main lessons of the book is to learn to wait.
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Mergulhador PRO
4 months ago
Very nice!
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andrej123456
4 months ago
Do you still holding it ? Please post here when you will close. Thank you
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chartwatchers TOP andrej123456
4 months ago
Holding and adding
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andrej123456 chartwatchers
4 months ago
OK. I appreciate your advices very much.
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andrej123456 andrej123456
4 months ago
But one more question, is there any stop loss ? Or just fundamentals these times guarantee this rally ? Thanks !
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andrej123456
4 months ago
Man I have already closed my long with profit. They are shorting it quite a lot. Would I short it ? Thank you !
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chartwatchers TOP andrej123456
4 months ago
No shorts. Buy the dips.
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andrej123456 chartwatchers
4 months ago
It looks like a correction, I am buying it back. Thank for the advice !
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jinyuji210
4 months ago
YOU MEAN 1358?
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traderzaius
4 months ago
Great book. Also agree on gold. Get in before it breaks thru resistance.
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ArtFly
4 months ago
Is this level you bet on the bottom of the correction ? However, there is an opportunity to deepen her with a weaker Euro...
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Gold/Silver ratio suggests at least one more day down. I personally think we going to correct even more than we did two weeks ago from here if jobs report is good. If it is bad then we going to rally. Media already started putting Sept rate hike on a table, just need good NFP for cream louder. Do you think Gold will rally while media is all about the rate hike? I don't think so. But again - bad report means we will continue to rally.
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Tuesday final open interest:
Gold: 582,211 change +12,547
Silver 224,540 change +2,553

Finally some interest.
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investment6300
4 months ago
For those interested here is a SG Gold x 5 Daily Long & Short
Gold Futures 5x Boost US and GBP

5GOL
5GOS
5GUL
5GUS
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pmcllc PRO investment6300
4 months ago
only in London not the US?
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Second time today GDX is trying to paint Evening Doji Star or Abandoned Baby whatever you call it. If by the end of the day the gap is not closed and price moves below $30.68 - that would be a reversal.
snapshot
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pmcllc PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
there was a gap by 0.3 not filled...
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kidbroge
4 months ago
Have you kept your stop loss under 1310 or have your pulled it up to breakeven at this point? I'm thinking a good NFP number will have people fade this rally. Thanx. Any input on this by you or anyone in the group would be appreciated. Take care. Ciao
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UNLIMITED
4 months ago
gold is going to fall... gold will fall ... minimum target 1255
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chartwatchers TOP UNLIMITED
4 months ago
True. At the end of september.. 1255 is the maximum target in the ICL.
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ArtFly chartwatchers
4 months ago
What's your prediction for gold and silver in the coming days ?
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chartwatchers TOP ArtFly
4 months ago
New highs (above 1376) by next Monday
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chartwatchers TOP chartwatchers
4 months ago
(8th Aug)
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UNLIMITED
4 months ago
look at Stochastics - daily and weekly overbought
until the end of August is gold at least at 1255
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shobikhan PRO
4 months ago
Excuse me I am new to trading I've only been trading 15 years, I have no opinion up or down, I don't call myself Bull or Bear, I only believe in the flow that is the only thing that is real all else is an illusion. But I do think in probabilities and I am wondering if this "Bull" market were over how would we know, and who would tell us. What indicator flashes BULL Market is now over get your shorts ready. Maybe we would see a triple top, perhaps we would retest a high and fail, then the trend line would break, and slowly it would creep down. Some would see it as a buying opportunity and load up, only to be disappointed, and we would see a further drop and new buying opportunities more disappointments. Then comes the emotions, confusion, blame, anger, resentment maybe even hope, then it drops further. I am just a new trader going on 15 years, who thinks in probabilities.
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toothless shobikhan
4 months ago
Perfectly clear.
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Please pay attention to Gold/Silver ratio. Usually it falls with rising metals prices and rises with them falling. Check out break out. If it will last til the end of the day Thursday that will suggest correction coming. I would say that we had only half of correction and second half is coming. It is all about jobs report though on Friday. Major move comes right after. Gambling again...

snapshot


Wednesday preliminary volume:
Gold: 587,589 change +5,378 - most likely came on short side since price fallen.
Silver: 224,259 change: -281
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newatthis PRO
4 months ago
How much lower will this go before it rebounds? 1346-1348?
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-Andrew- PRO newatthis
4 months ago
Shorted it @ 1366 - expecting this to go down 1342, then will buy!!
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-Andrew- PRO -Andrew-
4 months ago
Sometimes, you just have to know when to get out of your positions - and minimise your losses. Jesse Livermore ended up broke in the end and committed suicide - because he did not follow his own rules. Still one of the best traders imho
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chartwatchers TOP -Andrew-
4 months ago
1. I trade in real time , you post you shorted at 1366 when price was 1349.
2. Jesse comited suicide not becsuse of not following the rules . It was 1940. I help you what started then. Ii.WW.
After he survived the I.WW with tradings and he stood up he knew he is too old for waiting for 5 years of war and stock recovery.
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-Andrew- PRO chartwatchers
4 months ago
Shorted @ 1366!! Price Action could not break 1367 for days.... Enjoying the profits..
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Robot1010
4 months ago
I could Not Disagree more www.linkedin.com/hp/update/6166527648127283200
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Robot1010
4 months ago
Here is my comment from 48 hours ago www.linkedin.com/hp/update/6166528521721126912
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Robot1010
4 months ago
and here is my comment from 6 days ago
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Robot1010 Robot1010
4 months ago
www.linkedin.com/hp/update/6164461975616114688
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ArtFly
4 months ago
Whether you are buying or waiting for a deeper correction ?
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mrtommifunn PRO
4 months ago
This is my worry - Here is the 1 hour time frame showing the rise back up to 1357. (second chart to follow)
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mrtommifunn PRO
4 months ago
This is my more worrying chart (daily) , that while we are in a bull market we do have a sizable drop coming.
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pmcllc PRO mrtommifunn
4 months ago
that is possible but look at the period Oct-Nov for a new high....1400+ maybe?
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mrtommifunn PRO pmcllc
4 months ago
i agree
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chartwatchers TOP mrtommifunn
4 months ago
In october we will be at the lows.
Without cycle counting in the gold bull market you will reset your account.
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ArtFly
4 months ago
Level 1364..... What's now short or not to short? that is a qustion;-)
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ArtFly
4 months ago
Despite that it's the bull market I believe that the correction will deepen and that this is not true breakout
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boozed22 PRO
4 months ago
Welcome on board the Gold train I was telling you about. I'm glad you finally bought a ticket...China on the bid..
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chartwatchers TOP boozed22
4 months ago
in since January. Just the Interemdiate correction played me out in MAy. It was too shallow. I underestimated the bull.
Will not happen again though
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Wednesday final open interest:

Gold: 583,911 change +1,700
Silver: 223,142 change -1,398

Still no pressure to the upside. The only day when we had good open interest was Tuesday (probably fixing COT report). Watch out for that double top. This move up is much weaker comparing to the first one.
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I mean a good healthy correction is necessary for bull market to move forward. For now you can see from the price action that traders are nervous, there is no confidence. Need major event. BoE did the job to reverse fall but not enough to push market forward.
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chartwatchers TOP pbartashevich
4 months ago
When the dollar tanks I think it will rally again
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pmcllc PRO pbartashevich
4 months ago
you are probably right something doesn't feel right about this huge swings up and down, maybe institutional hedge funds looking to hold technicals not to lose their recent bulish bets???
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webmiztriz PRO
4 months ago
awesome.. would you mind taking a look at GDX ... and/or GDXJ ... are they ahead in the count? tx
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chartwatchers TOP webmiztriz
4 months ago