XAUUSD – Gold Holds The Channel, But 4,438 Is The Next Real Test
Gold is still holding a strong short-term bullish structure.
Price is currently trading around 4,388 after moving inside a clean rising channel. Buyers are still defending the trendline area, and the market has not shown a confirmed bearish break yet.
However, gold is now approaching an important resistance ladder. The next reaction around 4,438 and 4,487 will decide whether this bullish wave continues higher, or whether sellers start to create a deeper pullback.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains supported by strong demand from central banks and positive speculative positioning.
The latest market tone suggests that institutional demand is still active, while CTA and fund positioning remain supportive for precious metals. This shows that gold is not only moving from short-term technical momentum, but also from broader market confidence.
At the same time, inflation expectations, oil prices, and Fed policy remain important risks. If inflation data comes in hotter than expected or the Fed becomes more hawkish, gold may face pressure near resistance.
For now, the fundamental background still supports the bullish structure, but price is close to zones where reaction matters.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold is moving inside a rising channel with a clear higher-high and higher-low structure.
The current Buy Zone + trendline area around 4,389 is the key short-term support. As long as price holds this zone, buyers still have control.
The first upside level is the liquidity area around 4,416. If gold breaks and holds above this level, price may continue toward the Sell Scalping Resistance around 4,438.
Above that, the larger Fibonacci Sell Zone sits around 4,487. This is a stronger resistance area and may create a short-term reaction if buyers lose momentum there.
The structure is simple: gold is bullish while it holds the channel, but buying directly into resistance needs confirmation.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,388
Buy Zone + trendline: 4,389
Strong support: 4,356
Liquidity level: 4,416
Sell scalping resistance: 4,438
Fibonacci sell zone: 4,487
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,356
Short-term bullish confirmation: Above 4,416
Invalidation for bullish view: Below 4,356
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Priority View
Buy Zone: 4,356 – 4,389
Entry: Bullish reaction, trendline retest, liquidity sweep, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Below 4,356 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,416
TP2: 4,438
TP3: 4,487
Breakout Buy
Condition: Break and hold above 4,416
Target: 4,438 first, then 4,487 if momentum continues
Sell Scenario – Reaction From Resistance
Sell Zone: 4,438 – 4,487
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
SL: Above the rejection swing high
TP1: 4,416
TP2: 4,389
TP3: 4,356
Breakdown Sell
Condition: Clean break below 4,356
Target: Deeper correction below the rising channel
MY VIEW
Gold is still bullish, but the market is not in a perfect chasing area.
The rising channel is holding well, and buyers continue to defend the trendline. If gold stays above 4,356 – 4,389, the next upside path toward 4,416 and 4,438 remains open.
But I will watch carefully near 4,438 and 4,487. These are not small levels. They are resistance zones where sellers may try to react.
For now, gold still has bullish strength — but the next real confirmation is above 4,416.
If buyers break that level cleanly, 4,438 and 4,487 become the next targets. If price loses 4,356, the bullish channel becomes weaker.
Do you think gold can break above 4,416 and continue toward 4,487, or will sellers defend the Fibonacci resistance zone?
Gold is still holding a strong short-term bullish structure.
Price is currently trading around 4,388 after moving inside a clean rising channel. Buyers are still defending the trendline area, and the market has not shown a confirmed bearish break yet.
However, gold is now approaching an important resistance ladder. The next reaction around 4,438 and 4,487 will decide whether this bullish wave continues higher, or whether sellers start to create a deeper pullback.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains supported by strong demand from central banks and positive speculative positioning.
The latest market tone suggests that institutional demand is still active, while CTA and fund positioning remain supportive for precious metals. This shows that gold is not only moving from short-term technical momentum, but also from broader market confidence.
At the same time, inflation expectations, oil prices, and Fed policy remain important risks. If inflation data comes in hotter than expected or the Fed becomes more hawkish, gold may face pressure near resistance.
For now, the fundamental background still supports the bullish structure, but price is close to zones where reaction matters.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold is moving inside a rising channel with a clear higher-high and higher-low structure.
The current Buy Zone + trendline area around 4,389 is the key short-term support. As long as price holds this zone, buyers still have control.
The first upside level is the liquidity area around 4,416. If gold breaks and holds above this level, price may continue toward the Sell Scalping Resistance around 4,438.
Above that, the larger Fibonacci Sell Zone sits around 4,487. This is a stronger resistance area and may create a short-term reaction if buyers lose momentum there.
The structure is simple: gold is bullish while it holds the channel, but buying directly into resistance needs confirmation.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,388
Buy Zone + trendline: 4,389
Strong support: 4,356
Liquidity level: 4,416
Sell scalping resistance: 4,438
Fibonacci sell zone: 4,487
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,356
Short-term bullish confirmation: Above 4,416
Invalidation for bullish view: Below 4,356
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Priority View
Buy Zone: 4,356 – 4,389
Entry: Bullish reaction, trendline retest, liquidity sweep, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Below 4,356 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,416
TP2: 4,438
TP3: 4,487
Breakout Buy
Condition: Break and hold above 4,416
Target: 4,438 first, then 4,487 if momentum continues
Sell Scenario – Reaction From Resistance
Sell Zone: 4,438 – 4,487
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
SL: Above the rejection swing high
TP1: 4,416
TP2: 4,389
TP3: 4,356
Breakdown Sell
Condition: Clean break below 4,356
Target: Deeper correction below the rising channel
MY VIEW
Gold is still bullish, but the market is not in a perfect chasing area.
The rising channel is holding well, and buyers continue to defend the trendline. If gold stays above 4,356 – 4,389, the next upside path toward 4,416 and 4,438 remains open.
But I will watch carefully near 4,438 and 4,487. These are not small levels. They are resistance zones where sellers may try to react.
For now, gold still has bullish strength — but the next real confirmation is above 4,416.
If buyers break that level cleanly, 4,438 and 4,487 become the next targets. If price loses 4,356, the bullish channel becomes weaker.
Do you think gold can break above 4,416 and continue toward 4,487, or will sellers defend the Fibonacci resistance zone?
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.