staurum

9 June 2016 (Notes)

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
64 0 2
6 months ago
Bad China Trade Balance data, bad Japan's GDP data and more importantly World's Bank forecast cut (2.9% to 2.4%) for the global economic growth; quite have a significant impact. On top of that, alhough JOLTS data gave a better data http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/08/us-unemployed-have-quit-looking-for-jobs-at-a-frightening-level-survey.html shows a concerning fact over us labour market. Today we have Draghi on stage.

Weekly: Some indicators have now made turns to effect "less bearish" outlook. It managed to cut through BB-midline and ticks up a momentum . Maybe a few weeks more if momentum needs convincing face. W-psar is at 1298.

Daily: Indicators are now in the overbought zone while MACD have come out of red zone. Although gold             is bullishly pushing up the upper band, stuck its head out of all MAs, Momentum shows that It has now become a challenge whether or not gold             can maintain this level (126x).

Intraday: a Very Strong momentum with Overbought and divergence readings everywhere. Very cautious care is warned. Gold             has now touched Fibo 61.8 (1264) of High 1303.79 Low 1199.73. Pivot is at 1256.7.
6 months ago
Comment: Immediate support is seen at 1257-1259. with 1253 below. To note that intraday short-term momentum looks like exhausted with a bearish engulfing candle 1265-1261 height. 1262 is hourly mid-bband. closing below it is a warning.
6 months ago
Comment: Intraday 12:40:
Gold has been dancing 1262 - 1263 at the moment. minutes mid-line is at 1263. closing above 1263 should be safe for longs, although longs neutralisation is preferred.
Looking at bullish momentum, it has "started" (not yet confirmed) to show weariness, and looks like it s short of breath. Question is how long the stamina can last as the threads have shown slowing of heartbeat.
Immediate support is at 1258-1260, at which if broken, preferrably closed below, might confirm (-) divergence and the Oversold-ness, following which 1252 can look naked too.
Close attention: DXY is trying to turn, will it or something is a miss at 92? 3pm - what will Londoners and Mario Draghi do.
6 months ago
Comment: An article to note: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/08/bond-market-maneuvers-sending-mixed-signals.html
Message: market fears the rate hike and will usually be prepared for it (no-rate-hike scenario), which will show in the price. so when it happens, it s already "priced-in"

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/08/george-soros-has-made-big-bearish-investments-including-gold-and-gold-miner-stocks-wsj.html
Question: "Buy the rumours, sell the news" apply?
6 months ago
Comment: Intraday update 5:55pm:

Draghi's speech effect - DXY up, gold down.

The threads have finally shown its overboughtness and (-) divergence effect, as the bullish momentum being challenged. 1258 is now tampered, but 1257 below has lots of supports. Will it withstand the blow without the help of bullish momentum? News (i.e. tonight initial jobless claims) may help, though doubtful.
6 months ago
Comment: Intraday 10pm:

So the overbought and divergence has served its purpose. Mistake was: the confirmation of it should have been a close below pivot @1256.7 (lots of support: Pivot, H4 mid-bband, H4MA10, Daily Ichimokuline, which also in turn transforms into good H4 hammer candle. so Draghi's was a decoy while initial jobless claims data was an ambush. 1256.7 hammer candle was on a good volume, indicating resources to make the candle wasn't little. The intraday longterm indicators failed to kiss and said goodbye rightaway, the threads were exactly at the oversold in a bullish mid-term momentum. by the looks of it 1264 (fib level - see daily above) and 1266 (top range for today) is a challenge, breakout /daily-close of which serves a smiley breakfast for the bulls tommorow morning.
Current range (another tip from a good acquaintance, 1256-1266)
6 months ago
Comment: Additional note: the reversal signal --> H4 hit support mid-bband where H1 managed to close above mid-bband.

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