chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Commitment of Traders report

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
1926 22 51

I haven't posted the COT numbers for a long time now... It's time to take a look at that now.
The Commitment of Traders report (COT) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data.
The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report.
We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart .


The last Blees rating numbers (near 0) are showing that commercials are heavily shorting the gold             market.
The commercial short position has been raising for a few weeks now. It was at 413.000 (!!!) last Tuesday. This is a horrible number.
I think on the 24th May the Blees will be above 10, so it's turning up from zero (Last Tuesday it was 3)
I noticed when the blees is turning down from 100 or turning up from zero the real decline/ rally is getting started.

This COT data/Blees rating numbers are crying for a correction. I doubt that most of the bulls are prepared the decline what these numbers are predicting. Everybody and his his dog plus his wife is short at the commercials....
My first post in January was the COT report as well which predicted the monster rally in gold:
Blees rating on gold daily chart supporting the breakout

JesseL
6 months ago
Where do you get your Blees numbers from?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO JesseL
6 months ago
COT from here: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/
+2 Reply
JesseL
6 months ago
do you calculate the number and plug it into your chart, or is there a built in indicator/strategy in traderview pro?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO JesseL
6 months ago
No this is my calculation.
There's a formula for it:
Commercial shorts-commercial longs= X
X-last 2 years minimum X number=Y
Last 2 years maximum X- Last 2 years minimum X =Z
Blees= Y/Z*100

+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
...and I plug it into the chart
+1 Reply
darth.stocks chartwatchers
6 months ago
Sorry to bothe you with this question, but,
a) are you using 78 weeks as in orig. or 104 ?
and
b) what is really different to the "usual" numbers as from "COT Report Index" (156)
just asking since i'm currently implementing a script for it...
Reply
JesseL
6 months ago
That's what i thought,,,,I've only seen a couple of bloggers that track the blees numbers, and they all calculate the numbers themselves based on the COT reports I was hoping to find a web site that plots blees number on a chart. In any event keep up the good work. I monitor your posts every morning in the hour before markets open here in the US.
+1 Reply
JesseL
6 months ago
FYI: This guy also provides good insight based on the COT reports http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/03/cot-reports.html
+1 Reply
Al23
6 months ago
snapshot
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Al23
6 months ago
Don't think we will print a lower low. We've taken out 2 intermediate tops and tagged the 3rd one.
Tha maximum decline is around 1100
+2 Reply
mabaert PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
if you would not expect a new lower low, how would you advice on current shorts? Take profit now and get back in later on? Or keep the current shorts (shorts from 1.254,96) and let it ride?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO mabaert
6 months ago
Take profit on shorts at the daily cycle low - hopefully this week. And I try to enter short one more time as we enter into the panic selling stage.
Then close shorts . We see it when we are there.
+1 Reply
regsask1 chartwatchers
6 months ago
So what would your opinion be on the DUST play? Get in now at current prices or is it to late? I just started following you and have learned a lot already.
Keep up the good work.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO regsask1
6 months ago
The ideal point to enter DUST was 05.17.-05.18. Maybe today will be good if gold doesn't break down till the US market open.
If it breaks down DUST will open with a gap. From that point it's hard to tell is it ok to enter or it's late....
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Anyway I think once the rally starts it will go minimum to 40$ and most probably to 60$.
Is that matters if you enter at 12 or 15?
I think it's a low risk enter today also. Just put your stop below 12$ and wait.
Don't try to jump in and out after a 2$ rally... Once it starts it's going to run away
+1 Reply
Nightstar
6 months ago
Hi Arpi! I enjoy reading your work.. It falls right in line with Gary Savage who also specializes in Cycle Analysis and Market Sentiment. I subscribe to him as well; you should check out his free Blog -- incredibly insightful :o)
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Nightstar
6 months ago
THX , I'm going to check him.
+1 Reply
LalitGurnani
6 months ago
sir what do you think about silver? how far down it can go?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO LalitGurnani
6 months ago
I try to check it this week. If you are short in that probably you have a few weeks to ride it.
+1 Reply
Cheetsbaby84
6 months ago
When would be a good time to buy JDST?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Cheetsbaby84
6 months ago
Same as DUST. Last week was the perefect entry point. But today is good also.
Just place your stop below 14$ and wait 2-3 weeks.
I post when I jump out of DUST the same exit should be JDST. They are moving together.
+1 Reply
2use
6 months ago
Would like to see more of these, seems like it did work in this time on this chart
Reply
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