I post this as a neutral chart, though I think the chances are much bigger for a decline in gold. Why? COT is very bearish ( I will post soon) Gold's weekly chart has a hanging man + we are turning down from the 200 EMA We are on day 26 in the daily cycle which usually lasts for 28-35 days
So there are 2 possibilities of breaking out of the triangle. If you play the long side have to be very careful because we can start heading down to the daily cycle low any time now...
The key is to break the 50 EMA (4hrs chart) for the way down to the DCL...
Comments
AhmetAlperOzen
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Super, it did as you mentioned. What is DCL? where can bounce?
chartwatchers
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DCL = Daily Cycle Low.
Every instrument has a daily and weekly cycle. It means that for a few days price is increasing and then it falls into a cycle low.
Gold's daily cycyle lasts for 25-35 days. The last daily cycle low (check it the daily chart)was on 2016.01.14, before that 2015 .01.14.
You cannot trade based only on the daily cycle but with indicators, chart patterns and sentiment is a big help when it is time to print the lowest price day of the cycle.
Gold is now forming a pennant. If the price tags 1225 and starts to come back 1210 I would say we are not going to break 1210 down, but we will break up from the pennant and will have one more 100 $ bull run in gold.
chartwatchers
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Sorry, Daily cycle lows:
2016.01.14 and 2015.12.03
AhmetAlperOzen
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Thank you very much
AhmetAlperOzen
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I am following you, because you are an expert at gold.