If you want to go long, wait for prices under 1200, I think this would be enough to wipe out all bulls and hit a sentiment extreme, causing a bottom. I expect commercial hedgers to go flat, or net long again when this happens as well. That would be a great confirmation for the long.
Risk can be a drop under 1117.87 in the monthly, but we can get tighter stops from once we have the right price action to enter.
Good luck, be careful, I'd rather not buy gold yet.