XAU/USD | Gold Enters Panic Sell-Off Phase – War Risks Back!

May 19

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that price followed the bearish scenario aggressively and collapsed from the $4685 – $4700 supply zone all the way down toward $4464, confirming one of the strongest sell-offs we’ve seen recently.

Currently, Gold is trading around the $4505 region after a sharp rebound from today’s low near $4464, but the broader structure still remains heavily bearish. In my view, the key level right now is $4515. If price manages to stabilize below this level, the probability of another heavy bearish leg toward lower liquidity zones increases significantly.

From a structural perspective, the nearest supply zones are now located around $4515 – $4550, followed by the stronger resistance cluster between $4580 – $4605. On the downside, the closest demand zones are forming around $4440 – $4465, with deeper structural support sitting near $4400.

Honestly, this kind of sell-off usually only happens during serious geopolitical escalation. But what makes this move interesting is that we still haven’t seen an official trigger strong enough to fully justify this reaction. It almost feels like Gold is reacting to something behind the scenes before the public knows about it.

Maybe Trump’s recent statements were only meant to calm markets temporarily, and there’s still a real possibility that tensions with Iran could escalate again very soon. If that happens, markets could enter another extreme volatility phase very quickly. For now, the main bias remains bearish and we continue to monitor the technical zones step by step.

Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !

Best Regards , Arman Shaban

May 20

Trade active

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that price followed the projected bearish scenario exactly as expected. After successfully stabilizing below the critical $4515 level, Gold extended its sell-off and dropped toward $4452, confirming that sellers are still fully controlling the market structure.

Following this aggressive decline, buyers stepped in once again and pushed Gold back toward the $4500 region. However, despite this rebound, the broader structure still remains bearish for now.

In my view, the $4515 – $4535 region has now become the key short-term resistance zone. As long as price continues to stabilize below this area, the probability of another heavy bearish leg remains high. So far, this analysis has already delivered more than 500 pips of return.

From a structural perspective, the nearest supply zones are now located around $4515 – $4535, followed by the stronger resistance cluster between $4580 – $4605. On the downside, the closest demand zones are sitting around $4440 – $4460, with deeper structural support near $4400.

Right now, the market remains extremely headline-driven and highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Any sudden escalation in tensions could accelerate volatility even further. This analysis will continue to be updated step by step.

May 21

Trade closed: target reached

By updating our #Gold chart on the 4H timeframe, we can observe that after hitting the designated supply zone, Gold faced strong selling pressure and corrected down to the $4467 level. Following this brief pullback, a fresh wave of demand stepped in, driving the price higher into the $4560 – $4590 supply region.

Upon testing this major supply zone, sellers aggressively entered the market, triggering a heavy sell-off that dragged Gold all the way down to $4489. Currently, Gold is trading around the $4505 area, and market participants are closely watching whether the price can firmly stabilize below the critical $4500 psychological level.

Moving forward, we are tracking two primary scenarios:

Bearish Scenario: If the price manages to secure a solid candle close below $4500, we can expect a deeper bearish continuation to follow.
Bullish Scenario: If Gold manages to close above $4520, the immediate bearish pressure will ease, and we could witness a significant rally heading back toward the $4600 region.

From a structural perspective, the nearest key supply zones are now located between $4560 – $4590, followed by the stronger resistance cluster around $4600. On the downside, the immediate demand zones are formed around $4467 – $4489, with deeper structural support sitting near $4440 – $4460.

Make sure to stay tuned and keep your notifications turned on! A brand-new, explosive Gold analysis will be dropped tomorrow. A ton of high-probability trading setups are on the way, so don't miss out!