FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
13560 197 94
6 months ago
I've started to post an Energy / Stock / Metal Trade for the followers to trade.
I will post the update in the "update status" section of the portfolio post.
Starting capital is 10.000 $ in each portfolio. When I close the actual trade I will move the whole amount to the next trade - in this case it will be Metal trade X.

Metal trade 2 ended with 824.5$ profit.
I'm going to play the move down into the DCL at the Metal trade 3.

Total capital: 17232 $
Position moved from the Metal trade 2.: 50 XAUUSD             short (price : 1244 $)

I'm planning to add to the short positions around 1240$.
6 months ago
Comment: Selling 50 XAUUSD at 1240.5$
6 months ago
Comment: I posted this at the old Metal trade...

Comment. Selling 100 XAUUSD at 1239.64$
6 months ago
Comment: Guys this is the point where I think gold should be sold.
This is PERFECT.
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: Gold is in a flag. But the dollar is leading: we are just waiting for to break out from the wedge.
Gold is tagging the trendline 3rd time. It's a strong resistance : we will still have time to exit from shorts
in the flag
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Waiting for Draghi...
Once we break above 1267$ I stop the position.
5 months ago
Comment: Once the dollar breaks out of the wedge and prints the DCL gold will have one more leg down.
Gold chart starting to look like a wedge. It could break down with outbreaking dollar
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: And the dollar is breaking out of the wedge
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: As we stopped out at 1267 and the raising wedge seems to be working I will sell again the
200 XAUUSD at 1274$.
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Dollar still in a rally mode.
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Now I think we have to watch the markets. If they buy SPX, Nasdaq and the Dow by the end of the day gold will print a reversal candle. ( As money flowing out of the PM sector to stocks)
5 months ago
Comment: Buying 100 XAUUSD at 1256
5 months ago
Comment: This position is too heavily leveraged for this night
5 months ago
Comment: I had 200 XAUUSD short. Now closed 100 XAUUSD short.
Total position: 100 XAUUSD short
Amirio-dz
6 months ago
good luck
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DanielAnthony
6 months ago
let's do it~
+1 Reply
SharkbaitAl
6 months ago
Nice, good luck! I am already short with you from 1245.50 (1248.10 August price) and will need to find a good opportunity to enter DUST in my IRA as well. Perhaps I should look in the area you are looking to add more short positions. You are incredible and have been an inspiration for me to study hard!
+1 Reply
KevinTang
6 months ago
I entered 900s JDST at 12.82 close to the end of open market yesterday. Thanks for your post to enhance my confidence.
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Ok Arpi, did the same
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keefer0
6 months ago
Are these full contracts your shorting? So you have 150 contracts of XAUUSD short?
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chartwatchers PRO keefer0
6 months ago
100 XAUUSD =1 LOT
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
I have 2 LOts here
+1 Reply
keefer0 chartwatchers
6 months ago
oh ok, got it. I'm still trading ETN's at the moment. Researching the Futures market currently to open a futures account.
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chartwatchers PRO keefer0
6 months ago
Just check the direction and margin. I'M around 20% margin impact.
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4thewin chartwatchers
5 months ago
hey arpi which company do you use to trade Gold? When using options how do you know how long to make the options? 1 month?
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AlphaDreams PRO keefer0
5 months ago
I started trading e-minis so I can trade them 24 hours a day during the week. Unlike the ETN's I was trading (DUST/JDST/NUGT/JNUG) I can use stop losses that will work where ETNs gapped up/down over night. I still use the ETNs during day trade for quick leverage though. The e-minis (YG is the e-mini gold) saved me recently allowing me to close positions at risk of loss.
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sahilskhot chartwatchers
6 months ago
Arpi, do shout out when it starts dropping below 1240, is it a Fib that's causing it to "get stuck" at this level? would it be correct to say it won't go to 1250 anymore and drop in the next hour from 1240?
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XTAL.ball
6 months ago
Is there any profit taking available in holding JDST and DUST right now? Selling XAUUSD the most profitable option?
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bracken
6 months ago
Thanks for your analyses and the amount of work you must put into them. An excellent service to all your followers. Now to my question, have you looked into GDX (a goldminers index) anything? Thanks again for all you do to the community
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chartwatchers PRO bracken
6 months ago
I will post GDX today or tomorrow.
I'm afraid that miners might not have a panic selling. Only a light decline.
+3 Reply
XTAL.ball chartwatchers
6 months ago
This chart would be very helpful to a lot of us. Thank you in advance!
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bracken chartwatchers
6 months ago
Thanks a lot chartwatchers. Looking forward to it.
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Notyour chartwatchers
6 months ago
dont you expect GDX to tank if Gold goes back to 1200?
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nnavarrete PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Hey Arpi. I just want to inquire about the expected drop to below 1200. Is that not longer on the table ?.. I kept my JDST position open. Expecting a nice dop at 1255 or so. if I inderstand correctly you closed your shorts... Kindly advise if you believe shorting is no longer an option.

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PF7
6 months ago
Arpi
do you still suggest to add shorts at $1140? or not at this time?
Thanks
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PF7
6 months ago
I meant $1240
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chartwatchers PRO PF7
6 months ago
Yes. Nothing changed
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vchelimella
6 months ago
Hi Arpi I have question , will JDST ever get to $40 as my avg cost basis is 40 Thanks a Lot for what you are doing
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charlie12 PRO
6 months ago
I've been following your charts for several weeks now, This is a really exciting day. Good work man
+2 Reply
rocky05.ra
6 months ago
there are pin bar and marubozu candle
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courageousone
6 months ago
Chartwatchers, for those who are out of DUST, is it still going to a lower low for an opportunity to load up?
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sahilskhot
6 months ago
whats holding gold from declining further from 1240, fib? big boys holding for commoners to buy longs and then big boys to short?
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ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
Added 1241.5, could 1242.4 tho.
Waiting for decline to begin
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charlie12 PRO
6 months ago
Is this the part where, and I quote "The Bulls will realize the run isn't going anywhere"?
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saint_athur
6 months ago
Tomorow we have ECB
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Tampax
6 months ago
if ur SL was at 1.240.54, should already be touched
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ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
Ok it's little anxious, but I have only small position... 2$ isnt deal but we must hold, and not break more.
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artwiz
6 months ago
Where is stop loss for this position?
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bertcoin PRO artwiz
6 months ago
See the warning in Arpi's weekend post:
GOLD - Unfinished business 2.
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ja.piotr.bor bertcoin
6 months ago
Warning, but still he shorted it as I see or only he sold his longs? I have small position and this is nothing really, but if it's gonna go up more to 1256, i would bail out now.
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EmalbansFx
6 months ago
SL please?
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MiDiGre PRO EmalbansFx
6 months ago
Guys Chart doesn't work with SL...only "mental" SL :-)...He has write that the critical point is above 1263
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bertcoin PRO
6 months ago
I have been studying your last few months of work Arpi - thank you for doing all this! I'm in DUST at $11.28 and looking forward to seeing how this turns out....
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sahilskhot
6 months ago
Hey Arpi, any updates, our saviour..... :)
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ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
Should be sold, so you mean short? No sell longs? Because that we be not the same...
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AL_G
6 months ago
can this be play out any better, seriously
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Trendhopper PRO
6 months ago
it was a false breakdown, looking more and more like a bull flag, lets see what the main man thinks
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ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
More and more I think too it was just a gimmick of big money, bear trap.
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rippy83 PRO ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
the gap from yesterday's closed was closed...not looking good for the short
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AhmetAlperOzen
6 months ago
this trade failed?
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PF7
6 months ago
I do know if it means anything (a newbie) but here is a little observation:
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PF7
6 months ago
snapshot
+1 Reply
shinsky PF7
6 months ago
I might have broken down on that wedge. Nice observation :D
+1 Reply
ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
When we can consider that the flag is 'broken' ? It almost reach 1245.
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nexuz
6 months ago
Guys keep cool :) we could pop up to 1255 and its still bearish. If you want to play that trade down to 1180 for example you need a stop that is wider. For example:

Entry 1240
Stop 1260 (20usd loss)
Target 1180 (60usd win)
Ratio would be 3:1

Only trade if you can get a ratio above 3. If you trade below that you got no room for failtrades.
+8 Reply
ja.piotr.bor nexuz
6 months ago
I have SL at 1256, guess it will be ok for now.
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nexuz ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
Sounds good mate - around 1255 is also a Trendline so there is resistance in front.
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nnavarrete PRO nexuz
6 months ago
Kept my short open (XXXX JDST @ $13.58). Opened XX JNUG @ $148.80 to hedge a bit until the top with a target price of $165 per share.. hopefully Gold doesn't go above 1255. Left my JDST pending order open XXXX @ $9.97 .. no SL set up yet for my curent JDST open position.
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alanprotrader
6 months ago
We got trapped with that fake bear breakout
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eberts
6 months ago
notice the weakness in miners compared to gold/silver
+1 Reply
DiaTronik PRO
6 months ago
finally it has started
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Marvin
6 months ago
TL holds. Hope for us bears.
+2 Reply
KevinTang Marvin
6 months ago
what is TL
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DiaTronik PRO KevinTang
6 months ago
trend line
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shinsky Marvin
6 months ago
LOL I think we were all staring at that trendline :D
+1 Reply
ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
I'm just curious what caused selloff...
Going up was slow and with downs, this just gone 2$...
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Domsn
6 months ago
How do you go to play FOMC next week? still short? or will u close before data? :)
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Trendhopper PRO
6 months ago
A shame this trade didn't work out...Chartwatchers we still love you
+1 Reply
toothless Trendhopper
6 months ago
Who said this trade didn't work out? Have you read all of chartwatcher's posts?
+1 Reply
SteveHer Trendhopper
6 months ago
in and out of JDST for 5% gain. For the ones who didn't enter at the right time, he gave a window to exit even.
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LJT
6 months ago
Arpi, love your charts learning so much from them. Question, I have drawn the trendline from the 1hr chart like you have, is it time to bail when the candle closes above this trendline and it's green or any candle closing above as this would imply more of a move to the upside?
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iamgift19
6 months ago
Time to exit from shorts mean to SL?
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sarfz.ahmd
6 months ago
Perhaps the rate hike scare odds have reduced, also the suspicious activity of SPX500 is something might have caused that up swing.
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PF7
6 months ago
Arpi
The flag is broken now, do you suggest getting rid of shorts?
Thanks
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Tampax
6 months ago
needs to break 48, this is still valid, if dosent manage to break 48 it will fall hard and would be a x2 top
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PeterHansen
6 months ago
iam out, stops hit
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ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
1248 was broken in some way... I will wait for a little price down to 1244, to exit i think...
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Tampax
6 months ago
you did not take in consideration possible bounce from 34, wich is what happend, it was a solid resistance and support
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RationalTrader
6 months ago
There's a major uptrend which started on Dec17 2015, it's strong support was proved valid the first week of June. Now we just broke the upper channel which started 19th of Feb. Why you trade against the trend (especially shorts) which such big positions, after so many years of experience bro? it's very risky you should know. Hope your doing fine guys who did take these trades. And btw if you're got less than a year's experience please remember that all indicators are lagging, and do not enter geometric trade before a breakout is confirmed. Take care.
+2 Reply
Alireza RationalTrader
6 months ago
Well explained bro!You're right Gold in daily chart is in a an upward channel .
+1 Reply
sahilskhot
6 months ago
What happened to this chart? the market aint reacting to this.....
+1 Reply
nbn007 PRO
6 months ago
thats not good.
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff
6 months ago
U just can't rely on technicals , trendline .. etc .. there are still fundementals in play. 1260 will hit today or tomorrow , shorting with such big lot at 1240 is suicide mode
+1 Reply
isaac312 PRO BjornPfaff
6 months ago
Haha hater came back !!! Welcome!! We missed you so much
+7 Reply
BjornPfaff isaac312
6 months ago
Hater ? i don't know why i would be a hater ? Because i say that it is dangerous to short at 1240 ? I do have respect for Arpi but we may not be to greedy
+1 Reply
isaac312 PRO BjornPfaff
6 months ago
Haha yea yea we missed your complaning tons !!!
World should be balanced and respect your crying tons :) thats cute and hope to see it more for us to alert the downside man. Thanks ;)
+2 Reply
The_Gold_gambler
6 months ago
you should have waited bro
hold the door :)
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Trendhopper PRO The_Gold_gambler
6 months ago
you could be right..butterfly says no rate rise at fed meeting
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The_Gold_gambler Trendhopper
6 months ago
yeah with a c point no 16 june and no ratehikes :) i love mathematics
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nexuz
6 months ago
got no clue why everybody is getting mad - still everything fine.

we are at the trendline now
at fibo Level 0.618
divergence building on h4?
MACD wants to cross
Stoch wants to cross
RSI Overbought
next would be 1255 resistance

If we break that all its getting nasty thats true and i will pull the plug if we go futher but so far we are fine in my opinion

snapshot
+1 Reply
ja.piotr.bor nexuz
6 months ago
What entry point you have?
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nexuz ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
Short at 1242 and shorted again at 1250 - sl both times 1260
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ja.piotr.bor nexuz
6 months ago
So similar to me. What levelrage you have? And quantity?
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nexuz ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
Leverage is 100:1
@1242 = 0.10 Lot
@1250 = 0.05 Lot

Margin level is at about 500% but im going to short oil now also :)
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ja.piotr.bor nexuz
5 months ago
You still going well ? Today spike 1269, looks like want to take out SLs
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nexuz ja.piotr.bor
5 months ago
S/L moved to 1275 before - and added a small short (0.10 lot) at 1270. its just such a good spot i had to try it at least. my position size is small so its ok if i loose - ofc its not nice but i will survive :) what bothers me is that move up from 1262 to 1270 now - EUR/USD is falling and looks like retracement. so its like the last time with gold it wont drop so easy
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The_Gold_gambler
6 months ago
@nexuz buy still in play 1251 tp 1259
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nexuz The_Gold_gambler
6 months ago
i wouldnt go long before a trendline break and retest. could you post a chart
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Marvin
6 months ago
I like your optimism Nexus but my fingernails are starting to hurt. Ha bloody ha!. I believe we still have some hope in the daily TL and the .618 fib which I've got at 1264 on my Mt4. Bloody fingers crossed.
snapshot
+1 Reply
nexuz Marvin
6 months ago
i know that feeling :) but my chart is telling me to short so i had to short. if its wrong then i had to do better homework :)
+1 Reply
curiozeta nexuz
6 months ago
Hey there, are you still going to sl at 1260 or wait on the open gold short positions?
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nexuz curiozeta
6 months ago
still at 1260 maybe 1265 - divergences all over the timeframes. its just a matter of time to break down imho
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ja.piotr.bor nexuz
6 months ago
Fck xd. I know that you wanted good but it took me to bigger loss. 1258 sl trigged. For now on I stand back - from 60% of profit I came to 50% of my starting capital lol. 3 bad shots with silver gold (which was SL hunting and it gone down - so annoyed), now I took loss, with someone who thought is more experienced. And he is, but everybody makes mistakes. It was small portion with only 4oz, but same lev as you so it was a really starchy for me (small capital).
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nexuz ja.piotr.bor
6 months ago
sorry mate... :/ always keep your lot size according to your account! its the most important rule
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ja.piotr.bor nexuz
5 months ago
It wasnt a big loss, because I opened a small position, but have little money on account for now so must close, before drag all of it. But now is that 1260 is holding due to dollar and instability of the market, so dont think it's good time to reshort what you think? We broke 1264...
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nexuz ja.piotr.bor
5 months ago
Im still in - we got a nice morning Star at the 1263 Level - reworked my fibo to the last high 1300 - rejeceted right at 61.8 fibo. Looks good to me so far.lets See what happens. I wont short at 1270 seems too high to me. Check out lloi also He is good on Gold also. Even if i trust arpi more :)
+1 Reply
nexuz nexuz
5 months ago
Btw we didnt break 1263/1264 we Spiked and got rejeceted - maybe retest is incoming but i doubt it cause of the nice morning star
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ja.piotr.bor nexuz
5 months ago
If I see opportunity I will, but on my charts it crossed MA and liniear regression - the lines was going down, but it crossed like it's going up and I checked it on 15m/30m. Should have trusted mpre in my charts than Arpi, even if he was so success - everybody can make mistake (and 20$ is mistake for me).
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ja.piotr.bor ja.piotr.bor
5 months ago
Or no, it cross to point going down... Hmmm, so down is the direction.
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ja.piotr.bor ja.piotr.bor
5 months ago
On 2h/4h it seems breakout and goin up is confirmed. Eurusd is the same, and it goes in the same direction more or less. So for now i will pass
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sahilskhot
6 months ago
hey Arpi, any updates?
+1 Reply
Loii
6 months ago
I think we're going higher but good luck! there might be a retracement at 1263
GOLD BOUNCE OFF KEY SUPPORT LINE - bull
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investment6300
6 months ago
I am a bit of a newby around good better experience looking at different angles is a great help! Looking at XAUGBP & XAUEUR & XAUUSD seems to bring a slight different outlook considering wave in GBP.
Any comments for potential of gold direction change out of currency influence.
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itrade9s
6 months ago
Miners are breaking out again to new highs where gold is not even close, this is not good at all....
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The_Gold_gambler
6 months ago
the door is breaking sell the gold at 1259-1263 s.l 1273 tp 1208 update of
hold the door :)
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The_Gold_gambler
6 months ago
The army of Dead Bears
+2 Reply
trd The_Gold_gambler
6 months ago
Hi Arpi,

Please update. you think still good time to add some more short.
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webmiztriz PRO
6 months ago
strength in gold is pretty amazing... wow ...
+1 Reply
Marvin
6 months ago
Well people the fib/TL combo halted the damn thing. For now. What worries me is the pole on 3/6 was almost $32 and the one it just did is only $12. So if you believe in poles, and a lot of the time they DO work, us bears are in it deep. If would be great if Arpi would give us his view about now wouldn't it? But it's his idea and he can do what he likes.
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Tampax
6 months ago