XAUUSD. Uptrend after the pullback ends. Target: 5550

Mar 6

Fundamentals:

1️⃣Geopolitics. The US/Israel conflict with Iran is currently the main market driver. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Brent crude oil has the potential to rise to 100 per barrel and higher if the conflict drags on. Gold is clearly becoming a safe haven. Positive for growth.
2️⃣Fed Monetary Policy. The Fed rate is 3.50–3.75%. At the March meeting, analysts and the market expect a 95.6% probability of leaving the rate unchanged. The Iranian conflict and rising oil prices have pushed back expectations for a rate cut to September-October. A pause in the rate cut cycle supports gold amid uncertainty. Positive for growth.
3️⃣US Inflation. January 2026 CPI -2.4% y/y (8-month low), core CPI -2.5%. Inflation is likely slowing, but rising oil prices could significantly impact its resumption. Gold traditionally benefits from rising inflation expectations. Positive for growth.
4️⃣Dollar Index. The DXY rose to ~99.0, a 5-week high, amid investors' shift to safe-haven assets. Over the week, the index has gained +2.4%. A strong dollar usually puts pressure on gold, but now both assets are rising simultaneously due to the conflict in Iran, indicating a high level of fear in the markets. Neutral impact
5️⃣Central banks. The Central Bank's purchase forecast for 2026 is 773–1,117 tonnes (down from peaks of 1,000+ in 2023–2025, but significantly above the average of 400–500 tonnes through 2022). Projected demand in the first quarter is ~190 tonnes. The attempt by central banks in large countries to decouple from the dollar remains a strategic trend. Positive for growth.
6️⃣Flows into gold ETFs. North America - 9 months of continuous inflows. Asia - strong demand. Europe is the only region with outflows in February (-$1.8 billion). January 2025 showed the strongest inflow into gold ETFs in history - $19 billion (~120 tonnes). All of this is a strong positive for growth.
7️⃣Gold supply. Mining and refining volumes are expected to be at the level of previous year. Demand in 2025 was ~4,974 tons with production at ~3,661 tons. The deficit is ~1,313 tons. High demand exceeds production capacity, which is already operating at the limit of existing capacity. A significant increase in supply that could curb prices is not expected. Positive for growth.

👉🏻Conclusion👈🏻: Strong upward price trend. The conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are the dominant short-term demand factors. Structural factors (central bank purchases, ETF flows, inflation risks) support the long-term trend. So, we continue to rise.

Technical Analysis:

1️⃣СCI - Above 0. Given gold's upside potential, we can consider entering the market on a breakout of +100, when that happens.
2️⃣RSI - in the middle of the range. Will act as a confirmation of the CCI when crossing the extreme zone at 70.
3️⃣VPVR zones - increased volume at 5178 and 5330
4️⃣Fibo - Targeting the Fibo levels - take profit levels below
5️⃣Moving Average Crossovers/Breakthroughs - Our key breakout is 5164. Buy order at this level. The moving average may pull the entry level lower; watch the EMA200. This will reduce the risk.
6️⃣Larger TF (h4) - CCI exits -100 (plus to buy), potential buy levels are confirmed at h4.

Entry, Stop Loss, Take Profit:

🔸Entry: Buy. Breakout of 5164
🔸Stop: Preliminary 5048 - peak of the second wave
🔸Take Profit: TP 1 = 5209 (50% Fibonacci retracement), TP 2 = 5259 (38% Fibonacci retracement), TP 3 = 5338 (162% Fibonacci extension of the first wave after the retracement), TP 4 = 5550 (268% Fibonacci extension of the first wave after the retracement)
🔸Risk/Reward: 3.46 for TP 4
🔸Implementation: By the end of next week

Cancelation

🔸Breakout of the last low and the extensions of the waves below at 5014 (first) and 4924 (second). A recalculation will be needed.

Note
🔸No rush to enter. We need a crossing of the average, preferably EMA200 (green)

Mar 10

Trade active

Going to the second TP