I was of the opinion that we would most likely first visit 1330 before we had a proper DCL decline. But I cannot ignore that candlestick on Friday's close. I monitor 45 day cycles on daily timeframe among others. We have an upcoming Jackson Hole event next Friday. I think there is a likelihood that we take that DCL in this current cycle bottoming on the Jackson Hole event and print a powerful reversal pattern. That will make the chart counterbalance the Trump election spike. In the coming week I will be careful on the long side and gold will be under likely pressure. Nothing has changed on my bigger timeframe outlook. I will let time work here. Keeping a core position for "upside surprises" but a reduced long position and looking to enter long on Jackson Hole day. Breaking of 1278 leads us downward toward 1267. Break of that leads us lower. I think there is a likelihood that we can go as low as 1225. If market takes us that low, you know what to do. Take care.
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Monday close can "correct" the bearish pinbar, so be careful in Monday trading. Look out for price action around 1292-1295. If it gets above, we have chance of intraday higher.
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And that "intraday higher" is shown on this chart in my original path expectation. Approx 1320.
But at this point, it is late in the daily cycle. But never say never! Caution is adviced here anyways. If we get to 1320 today, I think i will take a short position. I do not take any shorts at these levels. The idea is just my "Plan B" to warn people that we are in a dangerzone.
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This is my plan A more in detail. Both scenarios have their bottoming in at the same time, but there is a great difference in the path of the two and their level of retrace.
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In the critical zone now.
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Reduced gold positions with 50 % here at 1292.
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Red day after we failed to hold above 1292 yesterday. How unpredictable. Bucle up until Friday, we're going into the Hole.
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Out of principle, I don't short here. The reason is that I believe there is a very strong larger degree uptrend working on price that may diminish partly the daily cycle end downward effects. I'd rather have a core position running and buy into potential weakness instead.
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Looks like we got something right in between the two extremes, just a sideways consolidation so far. But I am still prepared we might drop into the Hole and reverse. But the current price action demonstrates why I wont short even though we are in timing band of the DCL.
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And Yellen hadn't even started :) Watch the following 2 potential levels.
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We bottomed at Jackson Hole, but much less severe retrace than I would have anticipated (I would expect minimum retrace at 1267). This shows also why I don't short this bull in progress and why I only scale down positions when standing in front of potential DCLs early in the intermediate cycle.