IvanLabrie
Short

Gold: Monthly forecast update

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
A lot has happened since I published my "Gold is in a monthly downtrend chart, but nothing has changed.
The downtrend is still viable, and we've recently had a very strong range expansion down bar into new lows.
The targets are good for both time and price levels.
I'll look to trade the retracement that will probably occur now as a short term long, to then close and go short as long as the surge ends below 1279.99. Above 1169 the short would be in question, making it more painful and potentially dangerous.
Entry below 1169.31 would be ideal, I'll update the chart once I enter using the weekly.
Good luck,
Ivan.
Waiting for your update!
+1 Reply
No orders yet, I'm studying the price action for the ideal entry short.
The decline will most likely continue but I'd like to see more reasons to go short, and safer invalidation levels than the current shot in the dark scenario.
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Brief neowave analysis of the current events:

snapshot


Time at mode confirms my view, we will see a choppy, but continued decline in gold prices.
The last daily downtrend expired in time at mode terms, so we might have a retracement soon.
On the Elliott wave front, daily structure is unclear, but I'm sure of the labeling up to the triangle B completion.
Timing wise, this looks like an incomplete impulse, price wise, possibly heading a bit lower still.
+1 Reply
I'll wait for a retracement to short gold.
Looking at a retest of 1118, if higher, as long as below 1173 I'll short it.
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Update:

snapshot


I'm waiting for a clear short entry. Tomorrow's NFP might provide us with a short term opportunity.
If we were to see a new low under the horizontal ray on chart, then I'd attempt holding the eventual short trade (after covering 50-75% or moving stops to break even) hoping to reach the time at mode target with that position.
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