Following the NFP drop, where to next for gold? The long term bear trend has been underestimated by many, but has proven a barrier for a 2nd time. Having broken out of its June Bull Trend (just at that resistance now, not confirmed), in the coming weeks it will return to the main trend line
. I expect this to occur via the Fibo retracement at 1351, which also happens to be at the 2011 Bear Trend Line
. Following this we will head to the 2016 Bull Trend line
and then flag and pennant
, bouncing off the converging trendlines
, until we get to the September FOMC. The expected no rate hike being confirmed will give the bulls confidence and we will have had the time to build up enough momentum to finally break the 2011 Bear Trend and head on up to a target in the vicinity of 1470-1490.