FX:XAUUSD Gold / U.S. Dollar
Following the NFP drop, where to next for gold? The long term trend has been underestimated by many, but has proven a barrier for a 2nd time. Having broken out of its June Trend (just at that resistance now, not confirmed), in the coming weeks it will return to the main . I expect this to occur via the Fibo retracement at 1351, which also happens to be at the 2011 . Following this we will head to the 2016 and then flag and , bouncing off the converging , until we get to the September FOMC. The expected no rate hike being confirmed will give the bulls confidence and we will have had the time to build up enough momentum to finally break the 2011 Trend and head on up to a target in the vicinity of 1470-1490.
RSI analysis. The RSI trend has been weakening since July 2nd. Pretty much since it ran into the 2011 Bear trend. When it bounced off the 2016 Bull trend I did think for a time that it may have had the strength to exit up. But since mid September it became obvious again and the Weekly RSI confirmed it.