Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Market Outlook: Sell the Spikes

Nov 9

XAUUSD parabolic October rally has stalled, giving way to a sharp corrective phase. This signals waning momentum and the potential start of a deeper pullback. With price now testing key support near $4,000, the market is at a critical juncture: failure to hold this zone opens the door to targets at $3,890 and potentially $3,850.

The 4H structure reinforces the bearish bias, as price bounces into a descending trendline acting as dynamic resistance. Any rally toward the $4,050–$4,100 zone is likely a shorting opportunity, not a bullish reversal. This area aligns with the 1.272 Fibonacci extension of the recent swing. A decisive break below $3,950 would confirm bearish continuation and likely accelerate selling pressure following channel breakout.

Fundamentally, uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown continues to fuel risk-off sentiment, supporting the dollar and pressuring gold. Possibly, this corrective phase will persist until the shutdown threat is resolved. Until then, the path of least resistance remains down. We should avoid chasing rebounds and instead focus on disciplined short entries on rallies, with tight risk controls. The bull isn’t dead—but for now, it seems the bears are in charge.

If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!

Nov 10

Trade active

GOLD is testing a critical resistance area near 4,080 after a steady recovery from late October lows. The structure forms within an ascending channel, but repeated rejections near the previous week’s high highlight buyer exhaustion. If price fails to hold above 4,070, a deeper retracement toward 3,900 could unfold. Overall, momentum remains neutral-to-bearish until a clean breakout confirms strength above the trendline.

⚠️ Risks:
- Renewed geopolitical tensions could fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
- Weaker U.S. economic data might pressure the dollar and support upside continuation.
- A break above 4,100 would invalidate the near-term bearish setup.