HEADER - I have legitimate conviction the path will be close to this to 4-20.
SUMMARY - I have searched seven years for this moment. Has my moment come? I believe it has.
STRATEGY - Long entry will be Thursday/Friday April 6/7. Exit will be April 17-18-19 window. I recommend futures options (23-hours a day, five days a week).
CALENDAR - Vertical lines with labels indicate important dates in this window.
DETAILS - See recent posts for how I got here. Will get into the rest later, but silver will be confirmation for us this time.
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11:52 AM ET 3/27 - Ran out of time yesterday to do line by line for this post. a) so it looks like we are doing this:
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b) for draft above: c) so that's draft AVERAGE OF EVERYTHING DRAFT 5-5 d) which is really the same window for the trade BUT e) it shows 1930 to 2070 INSTEAD OF 1945 to 2200 f) wait a sec...
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g) that should really be 1940 to 2190 h) so the difference in value is 140 vs 250 i) that is a huge difference yes j) RIGHT NOW, the AVERAGE OF EVERYTHING DRAFT 5-5 is the favorite again k) bc it dropped to 1940 ish before bouncing to 1957 right now l) but like I said in the notes for AVERAGE OF EVERYTHING DRAFT 6-2.. m) it's the 24 hours after the drop that is decisive on which route this finally takes n) wait a sec...
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o) so today is 3/27 and Friday is 3/31 p) if price does not make another attempt for a new local high ... q) which would be breaking 2010 and heading for 2040 ish r) by end of this Friday 3/31, then AVERAGE OF EVERYTHING DRAFT 5-5 is a very strong favorite s) meanwhile, if we somehow spike 80+ from here (1958.xx) as I am typing... u) then I have to expect the 04/06-04/20 rally to be higher rather than cap at 2070-2075
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w) so the question is then... x) do I have reason to believe we are spiking 80+ inside 100 HOURS FROM NOW?? y) that would mean to end of Friday 3/31... z) I am working on that right now...
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SO UNTIL I POST SOMETHING, USE AVERAGE OF EVERYTHING DRAFT 5-5 FOR GUIDE.
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NOTES 3 - SO HERE'S CURRENT VIEW OF 4-DAY BAR:
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NOTES 4 - ZOOMING INTO 12 HOUR BAR:
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NOTES 5 - 3/28 11.23 AM ET 1967.xx 1. there is a 40 hour window for bulls to break 2010 high 2. 2040 starring to look unrealistic 3. averages continue to support DRAFT 5-5 into April 13 4. what is interesting Iis that the zone from April 13 to April 20 still aiming for .. 5. .. 2160 to 2200 6. Please continue to use DRAFT 5-5 for guide
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NOTES 6 - I have a new draft. Will post in 12 hours or less. a. I realize now it doesn't matter how we get to 4/6 b. the result to 4/13 Will be 2070 c. the question is will we break higher 4/13 to 4/20 d. my math says yes... but maybe not to 2200 e. could stall around 2160 f. SO THE PLAN TO GO LONG 4/6 TO 4/20 remains the same g. whatever the case maybe...
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NOTES 7 - THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS DRAFT 2: a) for chart above: b) that also means YOU DON'T NEED PREVIOUS DRAFT 5-5 ANYMORE
@anand1988, not always, but from 4/06 to 4/13 I have strong conviction this move almost has to happen
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@MQP, there is no all time high coming this year my friend
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@anand1988, I don't know if there is or not. I can say that from 04/06-04/20, my data says 2070 (all time high) should get tested twice and break the second time. The ceiling has been dropping though, it's now around 2145 for April, but it's 2220 for June. It's 3/29, we will know in 3 weeks or less.
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@MQP, Btw, becareful with gap theory because filling the gap and NEW ATH are not mutually exclusive events. They can both happen. Meaning, you can still get new ATH, and fill the gap later... MUCH MUCH later. With that said, all my indicators are in agreement of price action ahead of 4/20. 2070 will get tested twice and break the second time. Meanwhile, by the time spot hits 2056, which is $75 more, futures will hit NEW ALL TIME HIGH.
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@MQP, Should your thesis not work out, here is DRAFT 3, my highest conviction post ever: a) btw, I am totally prepared for it to not work should it give me that signal that it will not work b) but at this second in time, there is zero signal and odds that one will come ahead of 4/7 is approaching zero quickly