Some very interesting price action on Gold...

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
870 3
Weekly Timeframe: Recent events on the weekly timeframe show that price formed a nice-looking bullish pin-bar candle off of a weekly swap level seen at 1251.5. This came shortly after price broke above a weekly supply area coming in at 1296.3-1269.3. Could this mean a rally higher may be in store this week?

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the weekly pin-bar candle was formed during Thursday and Friday’s trading sessions. What the daily timeframe also shows is that for prices to continue north, selling opposition around a minor daily decision-point supply area at 1297.4-1284.3 will need to be (closed above) consumed. Should this area be taken out, price will then likely be free to test a daily supply area seen at 1319.2-1308.6.

4hr Timeframe: Latest developments on the 4hr timeframe suggest we may not have to wait for prices to close above the daily decision-point supply area at 1297.4-1284.3. Gold was seen closing (1283.2) deep within a 4hr decision-point supply area at 1284.9-1278.1, which if you look on the daily timeframe is located just below the aforementioned daily decision-point supply area.

Assuming that price closes above this 4hr decision-point supply area sometime this week, this could in effect be a signal to begin preparing to enter long. What you’re likely thinking now is: ‘but if you look for buys once price breaks the 4hr decision-point supply area, will you not be buying into the daily decision-point supply area?’ Effectively, yes we would. But, take a look above this 4hr area, check out the wicks marked with green arrows at 1292.9/1297.4/1299.0/1299.5, to us these represent consumption, i.e. very little selling pressure left. So with that, the path north, upon breaking above the 4hr decision-point supply area will likely be open for prices to test the 4hr swap level coming in at 1305.20, which is conveniently located just below the daily supply area mentioned above at 1319.2-1308.6.

With the above in mind, if prices were to break above the 4hr decision-point supply area, where could one look to enter long? Well, assuming price retraces following the break, we really like the look of the small 4hr decision-point demand area seen at 1258.3-1266.4 with the aforementioned 4hr swap level in mind as a target (as per the blue arrows).

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

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Hi thanks once again for your analysis, I presume your position remains unchanged as we are still waiting to consume the daily decision point supply area?
ICmarkets Cryptoelite
Hi Skuffone,

You are very welcome, and yes, unless we peek above that all important area, we're leaving Gold alone for the time being...

IC Markets
Hi looks like we are trending higher... on the hourly. Do you think supply area will have dried up due to the rally into it a few days ago?
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