XAU/USD | Explodes to $5250 – OTE Rejection, Next Leg Loading?

Feb 24

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that price surged aggressively today and reached the $5250 level, driven by the market reaction to Trump’s 15% tariff announcement. The move was impulsive and expansionary, confirming strong bullish momentum during the session.

However, once price entered the OTE region, heavy selling pressure stepped in and Gold corrected sharply down to the $5093 level. This reaction was technically clean and aligned with the premium retracement zone. Currently, Gold is trading around the $5122 area, showing signs of stabilization after the corrective move.

As long as price manages to hold and stabilize above the $5100 level, the bullish continuation scenario remains valid. A sustained position above this key level increases the probability of further upside expansion, with potential targets projected at $5140, followed by $5155, and then $5190 in case of continued momentum.

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Best Regards , Arman Shaban

Feb 25

Trade active

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that price followed the projected bullish continuation scenario perfectly. After stabilizing above the $5100 level, Gold expanded aggressively and delivered all previously mentioned targets.

The upside targets at $5140, $5155, and $5190 were successfully hit, confirming the strength of the breakout structure. In total, this move delivered more than 800+ pips from the stabilization zone, once again validating our structure-based and OTE-driven approach.

Gold effectively rallied toward the $5210 level during this expansion phase and is now trading around the $5185 area, showing signs of short-term consolidation after the impulsive move.

This chart will continue to be updated step by step as price reacts to key levels. Stay tuned for the next update.

Feb 25

Note

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that price continued its bullish expansion exactly as expected. After the previous breakout phase, Gold pushed higher once again and reached the $5203 level before entering a minor pullback.

Currently, Gold is trading around the $5188 area, showing controlled consolidation after the recent upward move. The structure remains bullish as long as price holds above the key $5185 level. A sustained stabilization above this zone would increase the probability of further upside continuation.

If price manages to maintain strength above $5185, the next potential upside targets are projected at $5210, followed by $5230, and then $5250 in case of continued bullish momentum.

Feb 26

Trade closed: target reached

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that price once again followed the projected bullish structure and pushed higher toward the $5218 level. With this latest expansion, the total return from this analysis has now exceeded 1500 pips, confirming the strength of our structure-based approach.

Currently, Gold is trading around the $5160 area after a controlled pullback from the recent high. The structure remains technically bullish, but today’s geopolitical developments may act as the next major catalyst.

The upcoming negotiations between Iran and the United States could significantly impact price behavior, and we are facing two main scenarios. In case of an agreement, we could initially see a sharp downside reaction in Gold, potentially dropping below the $5000 psychological level. However, in my view, such a decline would likely be temporary, and Gold could resume its medium-term bullish trend afterward.

On the other hand, if discussions collapse and tensions escalate toward conflict, we may witness an aggressive bullish expansion, potentially driving Gold above $5300 and even toward the $5400 region in the short term.

My personal bias currently leans toward the first scenario. If war was truly imminent, escalation would likely have occurred days ago. With all involved parties fully prepared, initiating conflict at this stage would be strategically irrational. Therefore, the probability of an agreement or at least continued negotiations without immediate escalation appears higher.