FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
2771 52 60
I'm going to post an Energy / Stock / Metal Trade for the followers to trade.
I will post the update in the "update status" section of the portfolio post.
Starting capital is 10.000 $ in each portfolio. When I close the actual trade I will move the whole amount to the next trade - in this case it will be Metal trade 2.

Selling 50 XAUUSD            
Price: 1240,77
Margin impact : 1259 USD (12,5%)

While I still think it's very dangerous to short gold             , we have overbought conditions, a tag of the upper trendline and RSI is soon leaving the overbought conditions I think it's a low risk trade to start shorting gold             now.
Gold             is on its way to the daily cycle low - which is an intermediate cycle low also. This move is going to last for 4-6 weeks.
I was watching a few strategies during the last 2 weeks and noticed that the RSI strategy on the hourly chart is working very well. It has 80% profitability... The reason that the long term buyers are buying every dip in gold             and pulling up the price from oversold to overbought conditions. In the meanwhile the top pickers are trying to short gold             and pushing the price from overbought to oversold conditions...

SO this move down into the daily cycle low will be erratic and hard to trade but if one uses the RSI strategy ( you can find it in the indicator menu in trading view ) it can be quite profitable.
The RSI strategy haven't given the sign to enter the trade but I'm quite sure that during the night we will get the signal.

Trade active
Comment: Bears/top pickers are defending heavily the upper trendline at 1241-44$.
I think we are out of the woods now. Late comers got one more short opportunity in the last 3 hours.
Trade active: Buying 1000 DUST
Price: 3,07 $
Margin impact :555 $ (5,55%)
Total portfolio's margin impact 12,5% +5,55% =18,05%
Comment: Gold cannot run higher even with the weakening dollar.
Once the dollar finishes its move down and start to rally gold will start its decline to the lower trend line (1190$).
Comment: I'm looking forward to take profit on half of the XAUUSD position when we reach overbought levels in RSI.

On the other half of the position I will take profit around at 1190 when we tag the lower trend line.

Regarding DUST I will take profit when Gold tagging the lower trendline (1190$)
Hourly bearish flag in gold
Comment: Bear flag was not working perfectly, but
just as I predicted the upper trendline
bears are defending 1235-1240 heavily....

We are heading down to 1190.
Holding the XAUUSD position.
I might take profit on DUST today.
Gold is heading down to 1180-90.

RSI strategy gave in the sign toclose the position. I think we have one more round down.
GOLD - Time travelling

Just a short thought that where we are now.
Though we are shorting gold we must know that we are playing with fire because gold sooner or later will skyrocket to new highs...
We must be ready to close the shorts even with small profits next week...
Comment: Today at FED minutes I will watch gols and NUGT very carefully.
If we break below 1200 I will close the whole metal portfolioi immediately.
We were able to test by ourselves how hard this short is.
Every breakdown is bought by the big funds. But on the same side every breakout is sold by the commercials.
Anyway the RSI strategy was working very well.
Comment: Gold cannot fall with the weakening dollar and and the commodity sector rally.
But sooner or later the dollar will start to rise and gold will start to move down into its DCL.
Stock market rally will suck out liquidity from gold and it will come down.
Comment: Buying 1000 DUST in the metal trade.
Price: 1.38.
We have 2000 DUST and 50 XAUUSD short.
Comment: ADDING 50 XAUUSD SHORT to the position at 1279
Comment: Adding 500 DUST short to the position as the testback of the trendline.
Comment: Sorry.
Adding 500 DUST LONG to the position as the testback of the trendline.
Comment: Total position:
2500 DUST long
and 100 XAUusd short.
No more adding will be this is the total position,
Comment: Closed 50 XAUUSD at 1272.50
Comment: Added 50 XAUUSD short to the position after the NFP at 1292.21.
Comment: Adding 50 XAUUSD at 1263.3
Comment: (50 XAUUSD short position)
Comment: Total position:
150 XAUUSD short
2500 DUST long
Comment: Closing 50 XAUUSD. (1/3 of the XAUUSD position) at 1229.2
Comment: Closing 50 XAUUSD SHORT (50 XAUUSD BUY) at 1221$
Comment: Total position:
50 XAUUSD short
2500 DUST long
I tend to close the rest of the XAUUSD at 1210$ if we go down there today or tomorrow.
Comment: Holding DUST positions
Comment: Selling half of the DUST position 125 shares at 17.15.
Buying back the last 50 XAUUSD shorts at 1212.60
There was a mistake in the total positions:
(250 DUST because of the reverse split and not 2500.)

TOTAL position:
125 DUST long
Comment: Selling the rest of DUST (125) at 16.9
Trade closed manually: Let me explain, because a few people doesn't seem to understand why I closed this trade.
I think gold had entered into the pullback phase . If gold pops DUST will fall. The power of gold's bounce depends on what is the market's plan with the shorts who entered after Yellen's speech.
We might have a small pop up to 1220, or a more powerful up to 1140-1150. Or maybe-maybe a real SOB pop up to 1160-70 to convince everybody that gold is heading to 1400$ again.
I just want to be ready with full cash to short gold and long DUST when this time comes in the following days. Maybe this week , maybe next week.
I closed this Metal trade 1. And I will reopen after I summareized how much is the full capital with the profits we made on this.
Comment: Sorry 1240-1250 and 1260-70... The pop up levels...
Comment: Total profit:
Comment: 50 xauusd short 1240,77 ----} 1229,2 = 578,5$
50 xauusd short 1279 ------} 1272,5 = 325$
50 xauusd short 1292,21 ----}1221 =3560,5$
50 xauusd short 1263,3 ----} 1212,6 =2535$
1000 DUST long 3,07 ----} 1,69 = -1380$
1000 DUST long 1,38 ---} 1,715= 335$
250 DUST long 1,515---} 1,715 = 50$
250 DUST long 1,515 ---} 1,69 = 43,75
Alltogether : 6047,5$ profit
Starting capital: 10.000 $
First trade :30.03.2016.
60.47% in 2 months
These are the same trades I made in the metal sector in the last 2 months.
I will move the 16047.5$ to the Metal trade 2.

Related Ideas

I'm still holding my DUST from prior to FOMC (and doubled down)... been a roller coaster, as you know. Our friend Jack had a target of $11+ on DUST... do you see any potential for that to be realized? Or perhaps you will eye other opportunities to buy/sell DUST over the next week or two?
It's very dangerous to short gold because I think we are starting a bull market which will last for years.
But somehow we have to come down to the daily cycle low at 1150-1170. So this 2 weeks are the opportunity to short it.
But as soon as gold start to rise I will get out of the short position, or at least cut it into half.

DUST will be good now . Today will be a very good day. But I won't check the DUST chart. I will get out when I feel that gold is bottoming.
Dont want to risk ...
tcp007 chartwatchers
Still sitting on DUST... ouch... hoping gold bails me out soon. lol.
So are you saying that the RSI strategy is not working any more? ("Anyway the RSI strategy was working very well.")

It was working beautifully. I just didn't close the position 5 days ago when it gave the signal... I thought there will be one more round to the lower trendline.
I knew it would be a whipsawing but not this much.
Sooner or later we will get a scary down correction to the daily cycle low . And the RSI strategy might fail that time.
It will give a signal when we come out oversold levels and a few hours later it will be more oversold. And that can continue for 5-8 days .
are you short dust or long dust?
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
I corrected. Sorry.
ice_holly01 PRO chartwatchers
How many total position of dust do you have? Thanks.
Here in the metal trade 2500 shares
Took profit on DUST with a trailing stop of 2% @1.61.5
I`ll reopen the 750 position now
Could you update on DUST or GDX?
I don't touch the DUST position now.
I will post in the evening, just hold it.
when you say 50 you mean 50 Lots?
xiiimik alanprotrader
Half position, 50%.
chartwatchers PRO alanprotrader
I had here 150 ounces. I closed 50 ounces now.
Still looking for best possible DUST exit. 1190's would be nice. Congrats on your trade and thank you for the update, Arpi!
Hi Arpi - Brilliant work on Gold well done! Have you looked at shortening the semiconductor market using SOXS? That sector looks like its ready to roll over. Keep up the good work. Mike
I haven't seen it yet. Semi inverse fund in such a big decline wow....
Is this because you dont think it will go further down? Im hoping to close at 1213$
Why such a small position in DUST compared to XAUUSD ?
Hi Arpi. Yesterday I halved my DUST position waiting for a pullback that didnt happen. Now Gold is -0.20%, GDX + 0.40%. Would you suggest to buy back my DUST now or wait for Gold pullback today/tomorrow? Cheers from Zurich
I would wait for gold to bounce and enter DUST there. 4-5 days from the DCL.
Notyour chartwatchers
sounds good. tnx )
Notyour chartwatchers
Sold half DUST waiting for pullback ?
This is fantastic work CW! Thanks again for all of your help. Currently 625 DUST and 50 JDST long.
what's your tp for this bear?
Closed 300 shares (half) of DUST at 16.932
AlphaDreams PRO AlphaDreams
And half of my JDST
AlphaDreams PRO AlphaDreams
Thanks for the fantastic work. Also closed the rest of my DUST and JDST positions earlier to not be affected by the temp. uptrend in gold. Will resume after it returns to gold's decline.
If it pops are you getting back in DUST right away or waiting?
Selling the rest of your DUST to be able to reposition later this week?
Yes. This is the exact plan. I think can buy it back cheaper at or after NFP
+1 Reply
XTAL.ball chartwatchers
Cool! We're still going to make a lot of money on DUST in June, right?
XTAL.ball chartwatchers
Also, what is your buy target? $15?
15$. Maybe 14$. I'm pretty confident in the gold pop.
SO miners will have a pullback also and DUST should fall a bit.
I will reenter this week or begining of next week.
+1 Reply
KevinTang XTAL.ball
I am confused by his trade now. Didn't find reason to sell.
saint_athur KevinTang
Temporary. Pull back.
KevinTang saint_athur
u mean 1140 1150 or 1240 1250 ?
Corrected thanx
nnavarrete chartwatchers
Did you get rid of your longs?.. what do you mean by the update "total profit"
Arpi, i think 1260-70 not 1140-1150 and 1160-70.
totally agree with that scenario
Arpi, what to do now? Gold rally finished?
AhmetAlperOzen AhmetAlperOzen
by the way I remember 3 months ago you said Oil will be 50 USD. Exactly!
chartwatchers PRO AhmetAlperOzen
No. Not finished.
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
I'm just closing this " Metal trade 1" and calculating the profits.
Here there were no trade for this gold bounce.
Who is holding shorts can hold still. We have 2-3 days more at least
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
Who is holding longs can still hold the longs for 2-3 days more
dimitriosb602 chartwatchers
Thank you...
alanprotrader PRO chartwatchers
target for the longs are 1230 or 1240 right? i longed at 1205.
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