I will post the update in the "update status" section of the portfolio post.
Starting capital is 10.000 $ in each portfolio. When I close the actual trade I will move the whole amount to the next trade - in this case it will be Metal trade 2.
Selling 50 XAUUSD
Margin impact : 1259 USD (12,5%)
While I still think it's very dangerous to short gold , we have overbought conditions, a tag of the upper and is soon leaving the overbought conditions I think it's a low risk trade to start shorting gold now.
Gold is on its way to the daily cycle low - which is an intermediate cycle low also. This move is going to last for 4-6 weeks.
I was watching a few strategies during the last 2 weeks and noticed that the strategy on the hourly chart is working very well. It has 80% profitability... The reason that the long term buyers are buying every dip in gold and pulling up the price from oversold to overbought conditions. In the meanwhile the top pickers are trying to short gold and pushing the price from overbought to oversold conditions...
SO this move down into the daily cycle low will be erratic and hard to trade but if one uses the strategy ( you can find it in the indicator menu in trading view ) it can be quite profitable.
The strategy haven't given the sign to enter the trade but I'm quite sure that during the night we will get the signal.
I think we are out of the woods now. Late comers got one more short opportunity in the last 3 hours.
Price: 3,07 $
Margin impact :555 $ (5,55%)
Total portfolio's margin impact 12,5% +5,55% =18,05%
Once the dollar finishes its move down and start to rally gold will start its decline to the lower trend line (1190$).
On the other half of the position I will take profit around at 1190 when we tag the lower trend line.
Regarding DUST I will take profit when Gold tagging the lower trendline (1190$)
just as I predicted the upper trendline
bears are defending 1235-1240 heavily....
We are heading down to 1190.
Holding the XAUUSD position.
I might take profit on DUST today.
RSI strategy gave in the sign toclose the position. I think we have one more round down.
Just a short thought that where we are now.
Though we are shorting gold we must know that we are playing with fire because gold sooner or later will skyrocket to new highs...
We must be ready to close the shorts even with small profits next week...
If we break below 1200 I will close the whole metal portfolioi immediately.
We were able to test by ourselves how hard this short is.
Every breakdown is bought by the big funds. But on the same side every breakout is sold by the commercials.
Anyway the RSI strategy was working very well.
But sooner or later the dollar will start to rise and gold will start to move down into its DCL.
Stock market rally will suck out liquidity from gold and it will come down.
We have 2000 DUST and 50 XAUUSD short.
Adding 500 DUST LONG to the position as the testback of the trendline.
2500 DUST long
and 100 XAUusd short.
No more adding will be this is the total position,
150 XAUUSD short
2500 DUST long
50 XAUUSD short
2500 DUST long
I tend to close the rest of the XAUUSD at 1210$ if we go down there today or tomorrow.
Buying back the last 50 XAUUSD shorts at 1212.60
There was a mistake in the total positions:
(250 DUST because of the reverse split and not 2500.)
125 DUST long
I think gold had entered into the pullback phase . If gold pops DUST will fall. The power of gold's bounce depends on what is the market's plan with the shorts who entered after Yellen's speech.
We might have a small pop up to 1220, or a more powerful up to 1140-1150. Or maybe-maybe a real SOB pop up to 1160-70 to convince everybody that gold is heading to 1400$ again.
I just want to be ready with full cash to short gold and long DUST when this time comes in the following days. Maybe this week , maybe next week.
I closed this Metal trade 1. And I will reopen after I summareized how much is the full capital with the profits we made on this.
50 xauusd short 1279 ------} 1272,5 = 325$
50 xauusd short 1292,21 ----}1221 =3560,5$
50 xauusd short 1263,3 ----} 1212,6 =2535$
1000 DUST long 3,07 ----} 1,69 = -1380$
1000 DUST long 1,38 ---} 1,715= 335$
250 DUST long 1,515---} 1,715 = 50$
250 DUST long 1,515 ---} 1,69 = 43,75
Alltogether : 6047,5$ profit
Starting capital: 10.000 $
First trade :30.03.2016.
60.47% in 2 months
These are the same trades I made in the metal sector in the last 2 months.
I will move the 16047.5$ to the Metal trade 2.
But somehow we have to come down to the daily cycle low at 1150-1170. So this 2 weeks are the opportunity to short it.
But as soon as gold start to rise I will get out of the short position, or at least cut it into half.
DUST will be good now . Today will be a very good day. But I won't check the DUST chart. I will get out when I feel that gold is bottoming.
Dont want to risk ...
It was working beautifully. I just didn't close the position 5 days ago when it gave the signal... I thought there will be one more round to the lower trendline.
I knew it would be a whipsawing but not this much.
Sooner or later we will get a scary down correction to the daily cycle low . And the RSI strategy might fail that time.
It will give a signal when we come out oversold levels and a few hours later it will be more oversold. And that can continue for 5-8 days .