FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
2767 52 58
8 months ago
I'm going to post an Energy / Stock / Metal Trade for the followers to trade.
I will post the update in the "update status" section of the portfolio post.
Starting capital is 10.000 $ in each portfolio. When I close the actual trade I will move the whole amount to the next trade - in this case it will be Metal trade 2.

Selling 50 XAUUSD            
Price: 1240,77
Margin impact : 1259 USD (12,5%)

While I still think it's very dangerous to short gold             , we have overbought conditions, a tag of the upper trendline and RSI is soon leaving the overbought conditions I think it's a low risk trade to start shorting gold             now.
Gold             is on its way to the daily cycle low - which is an intermediate cycle low also. This move is going to last for 4-6 weeks.
I was watching a few strategies during the last 2 weeks and noticed that the RSI strategy on the hourly chart is working very well. It has 80% profitability... The reason that the long term buyers are buying every dip in gold             and pulling up the price from oversold to overbought conditions. In the meanwhile the top pickers are trying to short gold             and pushing the price from overbought to oversold conditions...

SO this move down into the daily cycle low will be erratic and hard to trade but if one uses the RSI strategy ( you can find it in the indicator menu in trading view ) it can be quite profitable.
The RSI strategy haven't given the sign to enter the trade but I'm quite sure that during the night we will get the signal.


8 months ago
Trade active
8 months ago
Comment: Bears/top pickers are defending heavily the upper trendline at 1241-44$.
I think we are out of the woods now. Late comers got one more short opportunity in the last 3 hours.
8 months ago
Trade active: Buying 1000 DUST
Price: 3,07 $
Margin impact :555 $ (5,55%)
Total portfolio's margin impact 12,5% +5,55% =18,05%
8 months ago
Comment: Gold cannot run higher even with the weakening dollar.
Once the dollar finishes its move down and start to rally gold will start its decline to the lower trend line (1190$).
8 months ago
Comment: I'm looking forward to take profit on half of the XAUUSD position when we reach overbought levels in RSI.

On the other half of the position I will take profit around at 1190 when we tag the lower trend line.

Regarding DUST I will take profit when Gold tagging the lower trendline (1190$)
8 months ago
Comment:
Hourly bearish flag in gold
8 months ago
Comment: Bear flag was not working perfectly, but
just as I predicted the upper trendline
bears are defending 1235-1240 heavily....

We are heading down to 1190.
Holding the XAUUSD position.
I might take profit on DUST today.
8 months ago
Comment:
Gold is heading down to 1180-90.
8 months ago
Comment:
snapshot


RSI strategy gave in the sign toclose the position. I think we have one more round down.
8 months ago
Comment:
GOLD - Time travelling


Just a short thought that where we are now.
Though we are shorting gold we must know that we are playing with fire because gold sooner or later will skyrocket to new highs...
We must be ready to close the shorts even with small profits next week...
8 months ago
Comment: Today at FED minutes I will watch gols and NUGT very carefully.
If we break below 1200 I will close the whole metal portfolioi immediately.
We were able to test by ourselves how hard this short is.
Every breakdown is bought by the big funds. But on the same side every breakout is sold by the commercials.
Anyway the RSI strategy was working very well.
8 months ago
Comment: Gold cannot fall with the weakening dollar and and the commodity sector rally.
But sooner or later the dollar will start to rise and gold will start to move down into its DCL.
Stock market rally will suck out liquidity from gold and it will come down.
7 months ago
Comment: Buying 1000 DUST in the metal trade.
Price: 1.38.
We have 2000 DUST and 50 XAUUSD short.
7 months ago
Comment: ADDING 50 XAUUSD SHORT to the position at 1279
7 months ago
Comment: Adding 500 DUST short to the position as the testback of the trendline.
7 months ago
Comment: Sorry.
Adding 500 DUST LONG to the position as the testback of the trendline.
7 months ago
Comment: Total position:
2500 DUST long
and 100 XAUusd short.
No more adding will be this is the total position,
7 months ago
Comment: Closed 50 XAUUSD at 1272.50
7 months ago
Comment: Added 50 XAUUSD short to the position after the NFP at 1292.21.
7 months ago
Comment: Adding 50 XAUUSD at 1263.3
7 months ago
Comment: (50 XAUUSD short position)
7 months ago
Comment: Total position:
150 XAUUSD short
2500 DUST long
6 months ago
Comment: Closing 50 XAUUSD. (1/3 of the XAUUSD position) at 1229.2
6 months ago
Comment: Closing 50 XAUUSD SHORT (50 XAUUSD BUY) at 1221$
6 months ago
Comment: Total position:
50 XAUUSD short
2500 DUST long
I tend to close the rest of the XAUUSD at 1210$ if we go down there today or tomorrow.
6 months ago
Comment: Holding DUST positions
6 months ago
Comment: Selling half of the DUST position 125 shares at 17.15.
Buying back the last 50 XAUUSD shorts at 1212.60
There was a mistake in the total positions:
(250 DUST because of the reverse split and not 2500.)

TOTAL position:
125 DUST long
6 months ago
Comment: Selling the rest of DUST (125) at 16.9
6 months ago
Trade closed manually: Let me explain, because a few people doesn't seem to understand why I closed this trade.
I think gold had entered into the pullback phase . If gold pops DUST will fall. The power of gold's bounce depends on what is the market's plan with the shorts who entered after Yellen's speech.
We might have a small pop up to 1220, or a more powerful up to 1140-1150. Or maybe-maybe a real SOB pop up to 1160-70 to convince everybody that gold is heading to 1400$ again.
I just want to be ready with full cash to short gold and long DUST when this time comes in the following days. Maybe this week , maybe next week.
I closed this Metal trade 1. And I will reopen after I summareized how much is the full capital with the profits we made on this.
6 months ago
Comment: Sorry 1240-1250 and 1260-70... The pop up levels...
6 months ago
Comment: Total profit:
6 months ago
Comment: 50 xauusd short 1240,77 ----} 1229,2 = 578,5$
50 xauusd short 1279 ------} 1272,5 = 325$
50 xauusd short 1292,21 ----}1221 =3560,5$
50 xauusd short 1263,3 ----} 1212,6 =2535$
1000 DUST long 3,07 ----} 1,69 = -1380$
1000 DUST long 1,38 ---} 1,715= 335$
250 DUST long 1,515---} 1,715 = 50$
250 DUST long 1,515 ---} 1,69 = 43,75
--------------------------------------------------------
Alltogether : 6047,5$ profit
Starting capital: 10.000 $
First trade :30.03.2016.
60.47% in 2 months
These are the same trades I made in the metal sector in the last 2 months.
I will move the 16047.5$ to the Metal trade 2.

Related Ideas

tcp007
8 months ago
I'm still holding my DUST from prior to FOMC (and doubled down)... been a roller coaster, as you know. Our friend Jack had a target of $11+ on DUST... do you see any potential for that to be realized? Or perhaps you will eye other opportunities to buy/sell DUST over the next week or two?
Reply
It's very dangerous to short gold because I think we are starting a bull market which will last for years.
But somehow we have to come down to the daily cycle low at 1150-1170. So this 2 weeks are the opportunity to short it.
But as soon as gold start to rise I will get out of the short position, or at least cut it into half.

DUST will be good now . Today will be a very good day. But I won't check the DUST chart. I will get out when I feel that gold is bottoming.
Dont want to risk ...
Reply
tcp007 chartwatchers
8 months ago
Still sitting on DUST... ouch... hoping gold bails me out soon. lol.
Reply
Gwoog
8 months ago
So are you saying that the RSI strategy is not working any more? ("Anyway the RSI strategy was working very well.")
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Gwoog
8 months ago
snapshot

It was working beautifully. I just didn't close the position 5 days ago when it gave the signal... I thought there will be one more round to the lower trendline.
I knew it would be a whipsawing but not this much.
Sooner or later we will get a scary down correction to the daily cycle low . And the RSI strategy might fail that time.
It will give a signal when we come out oversold levels and a few hours later it will be more oversold. And that can continue for 5-8 days .
Reply
FBixo
7 months ago
are you short dust or long dust?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO FBixo
7 months ago
long
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
7 months ago
I corrected. Sorry.
Reply
ice_holly01 chartwatchers
7 months ago
How many total position of dust do you have? Thanks.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO ice_holly01
7 months ago
Here in the metal trade 2500 shares
Reply
Benztownguy
7 months ago
Took profit on DUST with a trailing stop of 2% @1.61.5
I`ll reopen the 750 position now
Reply
xiiimik
6 months ago
Could you update on DUST or GDX?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO xiiimik
6 months ago
I don't touch the DUST position now.
I will post in the evening, just hold it.
Reply
alanprotrader
6 months ago
when you say 50 you mean 50 Lots?
Reply
xiiimik alanprotrader
6 months ago
Half position, 50%.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO alanprotrader
6 months ago
I had here 150 ounces. I closed 50 ounces now.
Reply
tcp007
6 months ago
Still looking for best possible DUST exit. 1190's would be nice. Congrats on your trade and thank you for the update, Arpi!
Reply
Serendipity
6 months ago
Hi Arpi - Brilliant work on Gold well done! Have you looked at shortening the semiconductor market using SOXS? That sector looks like its ready to roll over. Keep up the good work. Mike
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Serendipity
6 months ago
I haven't seen it yet. Semi inverse fund in such a big decline wow....
Reply
Is this because you dont think it will go further down? Im hoping to close at 1213$
Reply
RaimondasKarth
6 months ago
Why such a small position in DUST compared to XAUUSD ?
Reply
Notyour
6 months ago
Hi Arpi. Yesterday I halved my DUST position waiting for a pullback that didnt happen. Now Gold is -0.20%, GDX + 0.40%. Would you suggest to buy back my DUST now or wait for Gold pullback today/tomorrow? Cheers from Zurich
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Notyour
6 months ago
I would wait for gold to bounce and enter DUST there. 4-5 days from the DCL.
Reply
Notyour chartwatchers
6 months ago
sounds good. tnx )
Reply
Notyour chartwatchers
6 months ago
Sold half DUST waiting for pullback ?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO Notyour
6 months ago
Yes
Reply
AlphaDreams PRO
6 months ago
This is fantastic work CW! Thanks again for all of your help. Currently 625 DUST and 50 JDST long.
Reply
Cornhub
6 months ago
what's your tp for this bear?
Reply
AlphaDreams PRO
6 months ago
Closed 300 shares (half) of DUST at 16.932
Reply
AlphaDreams PRO AlphaDreams
6 months ago
And half of my JDST
Reply
AlphaDreams PRO AlphaDreams
6 months ago
Thanks for the fantastic work. Also closed the rest of my DUST and JDST positions earlier to not be affected by the temp. uptrend in gold. Will resume after it returns to gold's decline.
Reply
AlphaDreams PRO
6 months ago
If it pops are you getting back in DUST right away or waiting?
Reply
XTAL.ball
6 months ago
Selling the rest of your DUST to be able to reposition later this week?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO XTAL.ball
6 months ago
Yes. This is the exact plan. I think can buy it back cheaper at or after NFP
+1 Reply
XTAL.ball chartwatchers
6 months ago
Cool! We're still going to make a lot of money on DUST in June, right?
Reply
XTAL.ball chartwatchers
6 months ago
Also, what is your buy target? $15?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO XTAL.ball
6 months ago
15$. Maybe 14$. I'm pretty confident in the gold pop.
SO miners will have a pullback also and DUST should fall a bit.
I will reenter this week or begining of next week.
+1 Reply
KevinTang XTAL.ball
6 months ago
I am confused by his trade now. Didn't find reason to sell.
Reply
saint_athur KevinTang
6 months ago
Temporary. Pull back.
Reply
KevinTang saint_athur
6 months ago
agree.
Reply
DiaTronik PRO
6 months ago
u mean 1140 1150 or 1240 1250 ?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO DiaTronik
6 months ago
Corrected thanx
Reply
nnavarrete PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Did you get rid of your longs?.. what do you mean by the update "total profit"
Reply
saint_athur
6 months ago
Arpi, i think 1260-70 not 1140-1150 and 1160-70.
Reply
DiaTronik PRO
6 months ago
totally agree with that scenario
Reply
AhmetAlperOzen
6 months ago
Arpi, what to do now? Gold rally finished?
Reply
AhmetAlperOzen AhmetAlperOzen
6 months ago
by the way I remember 3 months ago you said Oil will be 50 USD. Exactly!
Reply
chartwatchers PRO AhmetAlperOzen
6 months ago
No. Not finished.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
I'm just closing this " Metal trade 1" and calculating the profits.
Here there were no trade for this gold bounce.
Who is holding shorts can hold still. We have 2-3 days more at least
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Who is holding longs can still hold the longs for 2-3 days more
Reply
dimitriosb602 chartwatchers
6 months ago
Thank you...
Reply
alanprotrader chartwatchers
6 months ago
target for the longs are 1230 or 1240 right? i longed at 1205.
Reply
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