I'm going to post an Energy / Stock / Metal Trade for the followers to trade. I will post the update in the "update status" section of the portfolio post. Starting capital is 10.000 $ in each portfolio. When I close the actual trade I will move the whole amount to the next trade - in this case it will be Metal trade 2.
While I still think it's very dangerous to short gold, we have overbought conditions, a tag of the upper trendline and RSI is soon leaving the overbought conditions I think it's a low risk trade to start shorting gold now. Gold is on its way to the daily cycle low - which is an intermediate cycle low also. This move is going to last for 4-6 weeks. I was watching a few strategies during the last 2 weeks and noticed that the RSI strategy on the hourly chart is working very well. It has 80% profitability... The reason that the long term buyers are buying every dip in gold and pulling up the price from oversold to overbought conditions. In the meanwhile the top pickers are trying to short gold and pushing the price from overbought to oversold conditions...
SO this move down into the daily cycle low will be erratic and hard to trade but if one uses the RSI strategy ( you can find it in the indicator menu in trading view ) it can be quite profitable. The RSI strategy haven't given the sign to enter the trade but I'm quite sure that during the night we will get the signal.
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Bears/top pickers are defending heavily the upper trendline at 1241-44$. I think we are out of the woods now. Late comers got one more short opportunity in the last 3 hours.
Gold cannot run higher even with the weakening dollar. Once the dollar finishes its move down and start to rally gold will start its decline to the lower trend line (1190$).
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I'm looking forward to take profit on half of the XAUUSD position when we reach overbought levels in RSI.
On the other half of the position I will take profit around at 1190 when we tag the lower trend line.
Regarding DUST I will take profit when Gold tagging the lower trendline (1190$)
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Bear flag was not working perfectly, but just as I predicted the upper trendline bears are defending 1235-1240 heavily....
We are heading down to 1190. Holding the XAUUSD position. I might take profit on DUST today.
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RSI strategy gave in the sign toclose the position. I think we have one more round down.
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Just a short thought that where we are now. Though we are shorting gold we must know that we are playing with fire because gold sooner or later will skyrocket to new highs... We must be ready to close the shorts even with small profits next week...
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Today at FED minutes I will watch gols and NUGT very carefully. If we break below 1200 I will close the whole metal portfolioi immediately. We were able to test by ourselves how hard this short is. Every breakdown is bought by the big funds. But on the same side every breakout is sold by the commercials. Anyway the RSI strategy was working very well.
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Gold cannot fall with the weakening dollar and and the commodity sector rally. But sooner or later the dollar will start to rise and gold will start to move down into its DCL. Stock market rally will suck out liquidity from gold and it will come down.
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Buying 1000 DUST in the metal trade. Price: 1.38. We have 2000 DUST and 50 XAUUSD short.
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ADDING 50 XAUUSD SHORT to the position at 1279
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Adding 500 DUST short to the position as the testback of the trendline.
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Sorry. Adding 500 DUST LONG to the position as the testback of the trendline.
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Total position: 2500 DUST long and 100 XAUusd short. No more adding will be this is the total position,
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Closed 50 XAUUSD at 1272.50
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Added 50 XAUUSD short to the position after the NFP at 1292.21.
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Adding 50 XAUUSD at 1263.3
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(50 XAUUSD short position)
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Total position: 150 XAUUSD short 2500 DUST long
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Closing 50 XAUUSD. (1/3 of the XAUUSD position) at 1229.2
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Closing 50 XAUUSD SHORT (50 XAUUSD BUY) at 1221$
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Total position: 50 XAUUSD short 2500 DUST long I tend to close the rest of the XAUUSD at 1210$ if we go down there today or tomorrow.
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Holding DUST positions
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Selling half of the DUST position 125 shares at 17.15. Buying back the last 50 XAUUSD shorts at 1212.60 There was a mistake in the total positions: (250 DUST because of the reverse split and not 2500.)
TOTAL position: 125 DUST long
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Selling the rest of DUST (125) at 16.9
Trade closed manually
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Let me explain, because a few people doesn't seem to understand why I closed this trade. I think gold had entered into the pullback phase . If gold pops DUST will fall. The power of gold's bounce depends on what is the market's plan with the shorts who entered after Yellen's speech. We might have a small pop up to 1220, or a more powerful up to 1140-1150. Or maybe-maybe a real SOB pop up to 1160-70 to convince everybody that gold is heading to 1400$ again. I just want to be ready with full cash to short gold and long DUST when this time comes in the following days. Maybe this week , maybe next week. I closed this Metal trade 1. And I will reopen after I summareized how much is the full capital with the profits we made on this.
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Sorry 1240-1250 and 1260-70... The pop up levels...
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Total profit:
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50 xauusd short 1240,77 ----} 1229,2 = 578,5$ 50 xauusd short 1279 ------} 1272,5 = 325$ 50 xauusd short 1292,21 ----}1221 =3560,5$ 50 xauusd short 1263,3 ----} 1212,6 =2535$ 1000 DUST long 3,07 ----} 1,69 = -1380$ 1000 DUST long 1,38 ---} 1,715= 335$ 250 DUST long 1,515---} 1,715 = 50$ 250 DUST long 1,515 ---} 1,69 = 43,75 -------------------------------------------------------- Alltogether : 6047,5$ profit Starting capital: 10.000 $ First trade :30.03.2016. 60.47% in 2 months These are the same trades I made in the metal sector in the last 2 months. I will move the 16047.5$ to the Metal trade 2.
Comments
AhmetAlperOzen
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Arpi, what to do now? Gold rally finished?
AhmetAlperOzen
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by the way I remember 3 months ago you said Oil will be 50 USD. Exactly!
chartwatchers
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No. Not finished.
chartwatchers
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I'm just closing this " Metal trade 1" and calculating the profits.
Here there were no trade for this gold bounce.
Who is holding shorts can hold still. We have 2-3 days more at least
chartwatchers
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Who is holding longs can still hold the longs for 2-3 days more
dimitriosb602
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Thank you...
alanprotrader
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target for the longs are 1230 or 1240 right? i longed at 1205.