The whole week in gold will be a story about a fight at the weekly 200 Moving Average.
Today it is around 1309$. If we close below 1309$ significantly by the close of any day this week we are heading down into the daily cycle low.
It means we will have a 4-8 days decline till the end of next week.
The DCL could be around the weekly 10 (1260-1280$) marginally we could break below that. In the past DCLs occured at the 10 . (highlighted by red ellipse)
I'M not going to play this decline. I'm waiting for a good entry point for a gold long. We are in a new intermediate cycle- hopefully the 1st daily cycle will end soon. The second daily cycle will be the powerful move up so I would like to catch that move.
Though we broke above yesterday's high we couldn't hold the gains till the daily close. So the daily candle doesn't look too bullish. I think tomorrow or Friday we will have the answer:
are we moving to the daily cycle low or we are breaking higher.
WOuld be good to know what are the banks plan with gold by the end of the week...
I also found interesting Silver's open interest behavior after Brexit vote - steady down:
Wednesday (today): -1,751 - despite that spike in price. Volume also wasn't that big. I think it is reversing. At least pointing to weakness of Silver's move.
1. There is still a chance that Gold remains in a bear market but it is attacking the weekly 200SMA quite aggressively. Once this average is cleared it´s another signal confirming the new bull.
2. If Gold is in a new bull market it will take some time (at least weeks probably months) to sustainably move back above the 200 weekly SMA (see spring 2013 + 2001) and it also will take much more time until this average is turning up again (2017 ?).
3. So Gold will not skyrocket now. It will consolidate around and below $1,350 for some weeks at least and once it has cleared $1,350 it will run towards $1,500/$1,530 where a multi month pullback should start and pause the new bull market for at least a couple of months maybe even a year... the parabolic super bull phase is still years away...
4. I am waiting to buy the next dip between $1,295 and $1,262 ..
I doubt gold will break out before the 4th of July. Tomorrow is a before celebration low volume day. On Monday the market is closed in the USA.
If we break out today night or tomorrow USA will miss the whole gold rally. In the last 5 days mostly the USA was buying gold.
WIthout the USA I dont know how could gold soar. SIlver broke that 2015. Jan high it's true. But it's just following gold as silver was depressed in the last few months.
Not silver is leading gold. Tomorrow profit taking is coming in the PMs before the long weekend. Options expiry tomorrow also...