chartwatchers

GOLD - Fight at the Weekly 200 MA

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
2741 41 41
5 months ago
Today we are closing the day at the 200 MA on the weekly chart.
The whole week in gold             will be a story about a fight at the weekly 200 Moving Average .
Today it is around 1309$. If we close below 1309$ significantly by the close of any day this week we are heading down into the daily cycle low.
It means we will have a 4-8 days decline till the end of next week.

The DCL could be around the weekly 10 EMA (1260-1280$) marginally we could break below that. In the past DCLs occured at the 10 EMA. (highlighted by red ellipse)

I'M not going to play this decline. I'm waiting for a good entry point for a gold             long. We are in a new intermediate cycle- hopefully the 1st daily cycle will end soon. The second daily cycle will be the powerful move up so I would like to catch that move.
5 months ago
Comment: The fight continues today. The daily chart not too convincing regarding the rally.
Though we broke above yesterday's high we couldn't hold the gains till the daily close. So the daily candle doesn't look too bullish. I think tomorrow or Friday we will have the answer:
are we moving to the daily cycle low or we are breaking higher.
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Possible bear flag on the hourly chart which broke down by the close?
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: With a MACD crossover...
WOuld be good to know what are the banks plan with gold by the end of the week...
piptamil
5 months ago
Thanks...
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toothless
5 months ago
Thank you!
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ice_holly01
5 months ago
Thanks for the chart.
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MMadryga
5 months ago
To help us determine when gold is going to move we have to watch both the DXY, wti, and the DOW charts. We are just in the process of completing a minor H&S in DXY within a major H&S in DXY (see DXY 4hr chart). IF THEY COMPLETE we will see the minor H&S throw us a signal that we are heading towards the $1280 mark as indicated by the descending triangle in the XAUUSD hrly chart. A move up in oil, wti, will signal movement in gold, 60% of the time, so if the DOW continues to rally which usually happens when oil rallies we will have our DCL low in XAUUSD. Once we hit the DCL we should be complete with the minor H&S in DXY this should lead to another move up in DXY to $96.70 territory and will bring gold with it. However, there is the possibility that we complete a major H&S in DXY if we hit the $96.70 which would see us hit $1200 XAUUSD mark and the lows Apri was looking for prior to the Brexit move. Lots of fiun and opportunity in the next couple of weeks.
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USSRandolph MMadryga
5 months ago
I'm wondering who "we" is. Are you partnering with Arpi?
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MMadryga USSRandolph
5 months ago
"we" as in the community. Apri is an excellent charter.
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USSRandolph MMadryga
5 months ago
Also, I'm wondering why you say a move up in DXY ""will bring gold with it" since gold generally moves in opposition to the dollar.
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MMadryga USSRandolph
5 months ago
In this case, the rise in gold and the dollar represented a "flight to safety" move and until the market re-balances it's a safe assumption to make the conclusion they will continue to move in that direction. Hopefully, we will have another leg up in the DOW again today and in oil which would signal investors have more appetite for risk and then they will move in opposite directions we started to see that towards the end of the close yesterday. My concern is that a temporary drop in the $US is just that temporary based on the potential for a H&S patterns.
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USSRandolph MMadryga
5 months ago
Thank you
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Teflonjohn907 USSRandolph
5 months ago
after brexit the dollar and gold were in sync for a few days(uncommon)...they seem to have decoupled as of overnight though and slowly getting back on track with gold and euro inverse of dxy
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the_roggy
5 months ago
Thanks!

Question: once the bottom is reached and it reverts to long... what do you think about GDX vs. XAUUSD to invest in?
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carlicus
5 months ago
Here is what I think about the weekly 200 SMA
GOLD pullback to the weekly 200 SMA
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grimjaw carlicus
5 months ago
nice chart there. but you didn't mention bout the moment where the PA hit the 200MA during 2013-2014. $1400 looks very promising.
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shero
5 months ago
Hi Arpi ... I don't have your experience, but I noticed that the upper line isn't exactly parallel to the lower line ... I had the same on my chart and I think it broke the channel upwards and is testing the upper end again (As usual) before take off.
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chartwatchers PRO shero
5 months ago
Possible, I will check it. The main issue here is the 200 weekly MA.
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Loii
5 months ago
finally you're on the gold bull wagon hehe. enjoy the profits
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Trendhopper PRO
5 months ago
Read this article about why Brexit ...wont happen...this is why oil and indices are back to pre-brexit levels.....short the Gold???

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-wont-really-happen-second-referendum-markets-value-housing-pound-a7106996.html
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Trendhopper PRO Trendhopper
5 months ago
FTSE 100 has risen to pre-brexit level (Thursdays level)...looks like its prinitng a bull flag....
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chartwatchers PRO Trendhopper
5 months ago
I wouldn't enter into a short position in this bullish environment. I just wanted to sign in this post that I'm witing for a move down to the DCL.
That would be a good entry point for longs.
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Trendhopper PRO chartwatchers
5 months ago
I agree thats safer...but BREXIT was cause of huge increase....now markets are bullish on indices as BREXIT not happening, its all a game, I live in UK so know this first hand...UK is ruined if it comes out of EU...Gold has just done a 5 wave top in place....right shoulder forming...RSI 65.....overbought.....next 24 hours this could be 1260/1280...
+1 Reply
shero Trendhopper
5 months ago
What do you mean BREXIT not happening, BREXIT happened and Germany and EU are rushing politicians to evoke article 50 which Cameron dont do on his watch ... so it is just a delay till October, I don't think the political heads in UK would want to ignore people voting no matter how stupid the results were.
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Trendhopper PRO shero
5 months ago
It won't happen...Parliament has soverignty and will decide for itself..see the article i posted 4 rows up from here..
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Trendhopper PRO shero
5 months ago
They won't invoke article 50 without a deal with single market...eu wont give deal to single market without article 50...standoff for months/years...UK still in EU....this is why indices and OIL are bullish again...nothing has changed...and won't change because UK become 3rd world country if the invoke article 50 without deal in single market...
+1 Reply
pmcllc PRO Trendhopper
5 months ago
1260-1280?
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traderzaius
5 months ago
The USD just took a nose dive. Might be chance to get in cheaper than earlier.
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Until we break that channel on Comex, I am bearish in Gold especially now when we approached that border.
GOLD - still in a channel


I also found interesting Silver's open interest behavior after Brexit vote - steady down:
Friday: -1,533
Monday: -3,951
Tuesday: -2,099
Wednesday (today): -1,751 - despite that spike in price. Volume also wasn't that big. I think it is reversing. At least pointing to weakness of Silver's move.
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I think the conclusion has to be:
1. There is still a chance that Gold remains in a bear market but it is attacking the weekly 200SMA quite aggressively. Once this average is cleared it´s another signal confirming the new bull.
2. If Gold is in a new bull market it will take some time (at least weeks probably months) to sustainably move back above the 200 weekly SMA (see spring 2013 + 2001) and it also will take much more time until this average is turning up again (2017 ?).
3. So Gold will not skyrocket now. It will consolidate around and below $1,350 for some weeks at least and once it has cleared $1,350 it will run towards $1,500/$1,530 where a multi month pullback should start and pause the new bull market for at least a couple of months maybe even a year... the parabolic super bull phase is still years away...
4. I am waiting to buy the next dip between $1,295 and $1,262 ..
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pmcllc PRO MidasTouchConsulting
5 months ago
buy the dip at 1295-1262???
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chartwatchers PRO pmcllc
5 months ago
Yes. But one should wait for a reversal sign at the DCL.
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MidasTouchConsulting pmcllc
5 months ago
I know - it´s a pretty wide range. But we will get at least a bounce out of this zone and more likely the end of the pullback that has started in the brexit panic. I want to see some small signs of panic at least.. Gold is in a strong bull trend and could turn around at $1,295 already... Generally such a parabolic blow off (+$110 in a few hours) needs more time and lower prices to be digested, but should not move below the starting point which was around $1,250. Just be patient and buy the coming dip - the lower the better of course, but don't wait too long. Reversal signals are nice and very helpful. But in early June you would have missed the first $40 if you waited too long.
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Nightstar
5 months ago
Ladies and gents.. Gold is in the process of forming a bullish FLAG, Silver is breaking through major resistance and the Miners are pushing hard 10 mins to Market close. That means that if you're trying to 'short' this puppy, then you are completely nuts!
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Teflonjohn907 Nightstar
5 months ago
long on NUGT @ 101.470075 as well as USLV @17.375....any ideas on NFP sentiment? sounds like it may have better than estimated numbers,although that proved to do nothing last month...gold did what it wanted anyway. Im still convinced there wont be a rate hike at all this year...they'll just keep dangling the carrot.
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chartwatchers PRO Nightstar
5 months ago
Silver might run for one more day but that's it...
I doubt gold will break out before the 4th of July. Tomorrow is a before celebration low volume day. On Monday the market is closed in the USA.
If we break out today night or tomorrow USA will miss the whole gold rally. In the last 5 days mostly the USA was buying gold.
WIthout the USA I dont know how could gold soar. SIlver broke that 2015. Jan high it's true. But it's just following gold as silver was depressed in the last few months.
Not silver is leading gold. Tomorrow profit taking is coming in the PMs before the long weekend. Options expiry tomorrow also...
+1 Reply
Nightstar chartwatchers
5 months ago
I understand but I still would not short Gold at this stage. It's way too risky and we might not get the kinda correction that everyone is waiting/hoping for, especially in the Miners. Just my two cents :) Long NUGT @76, waiting for it to tag 135/140. Fingers crossed!
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Teflonjohn907 Nightstar
5 months ago
yeah technicals aside I think sentiment is pushing gold and even more so the strength in miners is unquestionable. But all in all it boils down to what time frame your plays are, as we've all heard the term "smart money"...big players not looking at weekly or monthly charts near as much as yearly charts. I think all theyre looking at is a bullish 5 year chart trying to retest 1900 again in the next few years. where as the smaller fish are looking at monthly levels. And normally silver isn't really a play for me at all, but im posturing long term with the idea that, with all of the attention gold is receiving, subsequently driving the price, people are gaining more and more interest...not just in gold in particular but precious metals as a whole and see that silver is a more affordable safe haven. I truly feel silver will increase popularity trailing the gold bug hype,but with gold possibly being to expensive for new traders with micro accounts that cant fight the itch. But on the whole I think gold is trolling up for another boom...its a popularity thing if anything. On a side note I could do with less reality shows lingering around in Alaska where im at lol
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USSRandolph
5 months ago
Strangely quiet here today. I see resistance here at top of flagpole created on "Brexit Day". Breaking convincingly above that I see minimum of 1400 I'm probably 1500 in the near future. Anybody's thoughts welcome.
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USSRandolph
5 months ago
Above using the four hour chart.
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
5 months ago
And a nice flag waving in the breeze. Wonder how long it will get?
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Hks6996 USSRandolph
5 months ago
I hope Arpi shares his thoughts soon... Unfortunately I did not sell DUST last week and trying to figure out if I should double down if gold is in a bull trap right now and gold will move back down next week... Or if I should get into some NUGT right now for the big push up... I normally watch my accounts like a hawk, but my car died and I have been sooooo focused on trying to find my new purchase I missed a few times to get out of DUST with minimal loss :,(
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USSRandolph Hks6996
5 months ago
Yes, I would like to hear his thoughts too
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MMadryga
5 months ago
For what it's worth the COT is showing a record number of shorts, indicating the "smart money" is looking for a correction. Is it enough to stop the momentum?
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