GOLD - Fight at the Weekly 200 MA

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
2754 41 43
Today we are closing the day at the 200 MA on the weekly chart.
The whole week in gold             will be a story about a fight at the weekly 200 Moving Average.
Today it is around 1309$. If we close below 1309$ significantly by the close of any day this week we are heading down into the daily cycle low.
It means we will have a 4-8 days decline till the end of next week.

The DCL could be around the weekly 10 EMA (1260-1280$) marginally we could break below that. In the past DCLs occured at the 10 EMA . (highlighted by red ellipse)

I'M not going to play this decline. I'm waiting for a good entry point for a gold             long. We are in a new intermediate cycle- hopefully the 1st daily cycle will end soon. The second daily cycle will be the powerful move up so I would like to catch that move.
Comment: The fight continues today. The daily chart not too convincing regarding the rally.
Though we broke above yesterday's high we couldn't hold the gains till the daily close. So the daily candle doesn't look too bullish. I think tomorrow or Friday we will have the answer:
are we moving to the daily cycle low or we are breaking higher.
Comment: Possible bear flag on the hourly chart which broke down by the close?
Comment: With a MACD crossover...
WOuld be good to know what are the banks plan with gold by the end of the week...
For what it's worth the COT is showing a record number of shorts, indicating the "smart money" is looking for a correction. Is it enough to stop the momentum?
Above using the four hour chart.
USSRandolph USSRandolph
And a nice flag waving in the breeze. Wonder how long it will get?
Hks6996 USSRandolph
I hope Arpi shares his thoughts soon... Unfortunately I did not sell DUST last week and trying to figure out if I should double down if gold is in a bull trap right now and gold will move back down next week... Or if I should get into some NUGT right now for the big push up... I normally watch my accounts like a hawk, but my car died and I have been sooooo focused on trying to find my new purchase I missed a few times to get out of DUST with minimal loss :,(
Yes, I would like to hear his thoughts too
Strangely quiet here today. I see resistance here at top of flagpole created on "Brexit Day". Breaking convincingly above that I see minimum of 1400 I'm probably 1500 in the near future. Anybody's thoughts welcome.
Ladies and gents.. Gold is in the process of forming a bullish FLAG, Silver is breaking through major resistance and the Miners are pushing hard 10 mins to Market close. That means that if you're trying to 'short' this puppy, then you are completely nuts!
+1 Reply
Teflonjohn907 Nightstar
long on NUGT @ 101.470075 as well as USLV @17.375....any ideas on NFP sentiment? sounds like it may have better than estimated numbers,although that proved to do nothing last did what it wanted anyway. Im still convinced there wont be a rate hike at all this year...they'll just keep dangling the carrot.
Silver might run for one more day but that's it...
I doubt gold will break out before the 4th of July. Tomorrow is a before celebration low volume day. On Monday the market is closed in the USA.
If we break out today night or tomorrow USA will miss the whole gold rally. In the last 5 days mostly the USA was buying gold.
WIthout the USA I dont know how could gold soar. SIlver broke that 2015. Jan high it's true. But it's just following gold as silver was depressed in the last few months.
Not silver is leading gold. Tomorrow profit taking is coming in the PMs before the long weekend. Options expiry tomorrow also...
+1 Reply
Nightstar chartwatchers
I understand but I still would not short Gold at this stage. It's way too risky and we might not get the kinda correction that everyone is waiting/hoping for, especially in the Miners. Just my two cents :) Long NUGT @76, waiting for it to tag 135/140. Fingers crossed!
+1 Reply
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