Gold's "dead cat bounce" or bottom? Critical test at $5,150!

Gold is attempting a recovery after scooping up stop losses near $4,400, but don't get too comfortable. This looks like a classic Dead Cat Bounce pattern.
In this video, we analyse whether this rebound is a genuine bottom or just a technical correction before the next leg lower.

Context
We dissect the volatility driven by the "Buy America" trade pause and the market's reaction to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. With margin hikes from the CME adding pressure, the technicals are now the primary guide.

Key topics:
Fundamentals: Why traders took profits on the dollar surge and how the market is digesting new Fed leadership risks.

Daily chart:

• RSI reset: Momentum has reset to neutral, with hidden bullish divergence at the lows.
  
• The "Dead Cat" zone: The rally has cleared the 38.2% Fib and is heading towards the 50% retracement near $5,000.
  
• Invalidation level: A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci ($5,150) significantly reduces the chance of a Dead Cat Bounce and could signal a sideways consolidation or Triangle pattern.

Weekly & 4-Hour structure:

• Weekly channel: Price is reacting to the median line of the long-term channel. A rejection here keeps the bearish double-bottom scenario in play.
  
• Elliott Wave scenarios: We explore two paths—a leading diagonal (wedge) that corrects before rallying, or a more impulsive bullish breakout if resistance fails.

Trade plan:
Bearish case: Rejection at $5,000 leads to a retest of $4,400.
Bullish case: A break above $5,150 opens the door to $5,350 and potentially new highs.
Key support: Watch $4,800 as the critical short-term floor.

Is this a trap or a reversal? Let us know in the comments!

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