XAU/USD: Technical outlook and review...

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Weekly Timeframe: From the weekly timeframe , we can see that Gold             sold off last week which consequently saw price break (a few pips) below a weekly demand area at 1166.8-1195.0. Could this be all that’s needed to encourage further selling down to a weekly decision-point demand level at 1136.3? Let’s take a look at the lower timeframes to see what we can find…

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that Friday’s trading action smashed through a major daily swap level seen at 1182.0, and closed for the week (1166.9) literally to-the-pip at the low 1166.8, which you may remember is the low of the weekly demand area just mentioned above. Although it’s visible from the weekly timeframe , the daily timeframe shows that below this low, there is, as far as we can see very little active demand to the left – check out that huge demand consumption tail seen at 1142.6! Therefore, a close below this all-important low would likely force the market further southbound towards the aforementioned weekly decision-point demand level .

4hr Timeframe: Contrary to what the weekly and daily timeframe show, the 4hr timeframe reveals that price closed the week just below a relatively long-term 4hr Quasimodo support level at 1170.5, but, at the same time hit support coming in from a 4hr descending channel line extended from the low 1228.1.

Today’s trading will likely see the buyers and sellers battle for position between these two levels. Assuming that the 4hr Quasimodo level – now resistance can hold the market lower, price will then likely decline in value down towards a 4hr demand area (formed from the daily demand consumption tail – see above) at 1142.6-1152.1 (located just above the aforementioned weekly decision-point demand level ). We’d definitely consider entering short at this ignored Quasimodo level if we see corresponding lower timeframe confirmation.

Conversely, if the buyers can hold out above the 4hr descending channel line, we’ll then likely see price break above, and possibly retest the 4hr Quasimodo level as support, which essentially could be a lovely signal to enter long up to 1188.3.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: 1170.5 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

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