XAUUSD has started showing weakness after failing to sustain above the 4,720–4,760 resistance area, with price now rotating lower into the key FIB retracement zone around 4,640–4,650.
Despite the strong bullish expansion from the 4,520 lows, the overall higher timeframe structure still remains bearish. The recent rally appears more like a liquidity-driven correction rather than a true trend reversal, especially while price continues trading below the major descending trendline.
The current rejection from premium pricing suggests sellers may be stepping back into the market, increasing the probability of bearish continuation toward lower demand zones.
Currently
• Price is retracing into the 0.5–0.618 FIB zone
• Recent bullish momentum is fading
• GAP/FVG remains partially unfilled
• Market structure is beginning to shift bearish on lower timeframes
• Sellers are defending the 4,720–4,760 premium zone
Trading Plan
Bias: Bearish
Key Zones:
• 4,720–4,760 → Major resistance + OB
• 4,640–4,650 → Current FIB reaction zone
• 4,560 → Main bearish target
• 4,520 → HTF demand / liquidity zone
Execution Idea:
As long as price remains below the recent highs, bearish continuation remains favored. Watch for weak bullish reactions, liquidity sweeps, or lower timeframe CHoCH confirmation before considering short setups.
Targets
→ TP1: 4,640
→ TP2: 4,560
→ TP3: 4,520–4,500
Invalidation
A strong reclaim and sustained acceptance above 4,760 would invalidate the bearish idea and suggest buyers are regaining higher timeframe control.
Key Insight
The market has already swept major liquidity and tapped premium resistance. If buyers fail to reclaim control quickly, this move could become a classic distribution phase before a larger bearish expansion.
Despite the strong bullish expansion from the 4,520 lows, the overall higher timeframe structure still remains bearish. The recent rally appears more like a liquidity-driven correction rather than a true trend reversal, especially while price continues trading below the major descending trendline.
The current rejection from premium pricing suggests sellers may be stepping back into the market, increasing the probability of bearish continuation toward lower demand zones.
Currently
• Price is retracing into the 0.5–0.618 FIB zone
• Recent bullish momentum is fading
• GAP/FVG remains partially unfilled
• Market structure is beginning to shift bearish on lower timeframes
• Sellers are defending the 4,720–4,760 premium zone
Trading Plan
Bias: Bearish
Key Zones:
• 4,720–4,760 → Major resistance + OB
• 4,640–4,650 → Current FIB reaction zone
• 4,560 → Main bearish target
• 4,520 → HTF demand / liquidity zone
Execution Idea:
As long as price remains below the recent highs, bearish continuation remains favored. Watch for weak bullish reactions, liquidity sweeps, or lower timeframe CHoCH confirmation before considering short setups.
Targets
→ TP1: 4,640
→ TP2: 4,560
→ TP3: 4,520–4,500
Invalidation
A strong reclaim and sustained acceptance above 4,760 would invalidate the bearish idea and suggest buyers are regaining higher timeframe control.
Key Insight
The market has already swept major liquidity and tapped premium resistance. If buyers fail to reclaim control quickly, this move could become a classic distribution phase before a larger bearish expansion.
Trade active
XAUUSD continues showing weakness after rejecting the 4,720–4,760 resistance zone. Price is now reacting inside the 0.5–0.618 FIB area around 4,640–4,650, while bullish momentum continues to fade.
As long as price remains below premium resistance, bearish continuation toward 4,560 and potentially 4,520 remains favored. Sellers are still defending the highs aggressively.
Trade closed: target reached
📌 XAUUSD H1 Note 11/05
Price has successfully broken above the Small OB zone, showing short-term bullish momentum after reacting from the FIB retracement area.
The current expansion suggests price may continue pushing higher toward the major OB + Resistance zone around 4,740–4,760, where strong seller pressure previously entered the market.
However, this area remains a key premium zone on the H1 structure. If buyers fail to sustain above resistance, the market could react sharply lower and continue the broader bearish narrative.
Watch closely for:
• Liquidity sweep above resistance
• Rejection candles inside OB + Resistance
• Lower timeframe CHoCH/MSS confirmation
• Weak bullish continuation near highs
As long as price trades below the major resistance high, this move may simply be another liquidity grab before bearish continuation.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.