OG Meets Trend

XAUUSD XAU/USD remains under bearish pressure on the daily timeframe as price continues trading below all major Simple Moving Averages, confirming that sellers still control the broader trend. The 50 SMA around 4,392, the 200 SMA near 4,488, and the 100 SMA at approximately 4,628 now form a strong dynamic resistance cluster, making any upside recovery challenging unless these levels are reclaimed.

The recent bounce developed directly from a Discount PD Array and a nearby OG (Ordinary Gap), showing that buyers are reacting from a high-value area rather than chasing price higher. However, this rebound remains corrective for now, as market structure has yet to produce a confirmed bullish shift.

The 21 SMA around 4,157 is acting as immediate dynamic support. Holding above it keeps the current recovery attempt alive, while a daily close below would increase the probability of another impulsive leg lower toward the next Discount liquidity zones.

XAUUSD Momentum also supports a cautious view. The RSI (14) remains around the mid-40s, reflecting weak momentum rather than an oversold market. In addition, the Death Cross between the 50 and 200 SMA remains active, reinforcing the longer-term bearish outlook.

From an OG perspective, I will be watching whether price can reclaim the nearest overhead OG resistance. Without acceptance above that zone and the major SMA cluster, I continue to view rallies as potential selling opportunities rather than a confirmed trend reversal.