Gold H4 Analysis - Sitting on my hands

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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ADX has dropped ever since the last high close to 1225, so I simply don't trust this most recent swing.

As long as we remain below 1225, I favor shorts. Having said that, if 1208.5 breaks and there's momentum on the H1 chart, I might hitch a ride up to 1225. For now D+ and ADX above 20 suggests bulls are still a bit in control. 1225 will be an interesting level to watch.

If it breaks, we'll head towards 1260, 1300 and maybe even 1500. As per my monthly/weekly analysis, I would be somewhat surprised to see gold             above 1500 anytime soon.

Below 1193 I'm tempted to go short assuming another run at 1181. Would have to reassess there to see if that level holds or not. If it doesn't, we'll try to reach previous lows and maybe head towards 1000.

Anyway, as long as we're in the 1993 to 1208 range, I'll sit on my hands.
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